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Jim Lebenthal — Market Setup for the 2nd Half of the Year

Cerity Partners' Jimmy Lebenthal on the CNBC Halftime committee: the consumer is "the least of my worries," the Mag-7 "lag-7" pullback is a setup for the next leg higher, Micron is a 7×-forward value stock in the middle innings of its cycle, and — as a long-term holder — this is a market to pick your spots in patiently rather than trade the rotation.
2026-JUN-29 · CNBC Halftime Report (audio edition) · host Frank Holland (for Scott Wapner); committee Joe Terranova, Stephanie Link, Jenny Harrington, Jim Lebenthal · ~43 min · ▶ Listen · transcript · actionable insights
One-line take: A pick-your-spots, long-term holder's read of a broadening tape — gasoline down to $3.99 (off ~11% from $4.50) and strong labor markets mean the consumer is "the least of my worries." The two big calls: (1) the Mag-7 "lag-7" pullback (AMZN, GOOGL) is margin pressure from chip-input inflation and over-high expectations — not a fatal flaw — and "a setup for the next leg higher"; (2) Micron (bought last week) is "a value stock" at ~7× forward with estimates rising — the Adam-Parker "don't wait for a 5% pullback that may not come" logic, the same setup as refusing to buy Nvidia in 2023 — "this isn't different, it's cyclical, and we're in the middle innings." Owns-but-won't-add: Delta (overbought after the Iran de-escalation rally, estimates flat — long-term hold, no new money, won't take the tax hit) and Disney (read through the vibrant media-M&A landscape — Comcast's NBCU spin is "takeover bait"; in media, scale matters). Final trade: Vertex — healthcare "came alive." Order: Positive → Neutral → Negative.

1. Stocks & names mentioned

This page covers only Jim Lebenthal's calls from the shared CNBC committee episode. This is an audio podcast — no (mm:ss) timestamps, so each "At" cell opens the Spotify episode (not a deep-link). Order: Positive → Neutral → Negative. Research: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis.

TickerNameResearchViewWhat Lebenthal saidAt
MUMicron TechnologyQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveBought it last week. "A value stock" at roughly 7× forward earnings with estimates going higher — the Citi/Adam-Parker logic (if you won't buy waiting for a 5% pullback, you're saying it's a buy here). "Up 600%, so what" doesn't matter — the fundamentals changed dramatically, like those who refused to buy Nvidia in 2023. A cyclical stock, but "on where we are in the cycle, middle innings."listen↗
AMZNAmazonQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveOne of the hyperscalers behind the "lag-7": down on margin pressure (raw chip-input inflation into data centers), not fatally flawed — expectations were just too high. With Mag-7 margins at 25% unable to go much higher, a little downward pressure on margins/price. "This Mag-7 pullback is a setup for the next leg higher." (AWS grew 28% last quarter; ~24×, per Link.)listen↗
GOOGLAlphabet (Google)QT · SA · STK · FAPositiveHis other named hyperscaler in the "lag-7" setup — same thesis as Amazon: margin pressure from chip-input inflation, not a fatal flaw, expectations too high; the pullback is a setup for the next leg higher. (Joining the Dow; Google Cloud grew 63%, ~24×, per Link.)listen↗
VRTXVertex PharmaceuticalsQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveFinal trade. "A great healthcare name" — biopharma with its cystic-fibrosis franchise plus "other shots on goal." Fits his broader call that healthcare, "left for dead six months ago," has come alive as the hot sector.listen↗
DALDelta Air LinesQT · SA · STK · FANeutralOwns it. "It is overbought" — rallied through the Iran-war de-escalation while earnings estimates stayed basically flat. Nothing fundamentally wrong; "own it for the long run," but won't put new money here and won't take the big tax hit to sell. Watch the earnings two weeks out. (Terranova: Delta/United now a duopoly capturing share.)listen↗
DISWalt DisneyQT · SA · STK · FANeutralOwns it; framed via the media-M&A discussion. On Comcast's NBCU spin: "I think it's takeover bait." M&A is "clearly vibrant" (Warner Bros + Paramount, Roku adjacent to Fox), and "in this industry size and scale matter" — the lens through which he holds Disney. No fresh buy/sell on the name itself.listen↗

Referenced only by Lebenthal (not tabled as his picks): NVDA (his May-2023 buy — the Micron analogy; since then "more than triple the annualized return of the S&P 500"); WBD (Warner Bros), PARA (Paramount), ROKU and Versant (the CNBC spin-co) as the vibrant media-M&A landscape. Other committee members' picks (Terranova, Link, Harrington) are covered on the shared CNBC Halftime source, not here.

2. Talking points

The consumer is "the least of my worries"

Pick your spots vs play the rotation

The Mag-7 "lag-7" — why they're down, and why it's a setup

Micron — a 7× "value stock" and the Nvidia-2023 analogy

Airlines — Delta is overbought, but a long-term hold

Media M&A — Disney, and "takeover bait"

Healthcare came alive (final trade: Vertex)

3. In plain English

A jargon-free summary of why each substantively-argued name matters. (These render on each ticker's consolidated page, where this audio episode has no excerpt to pull.)

MU — Micron Technology Positive

Micron makes memory chips (the DRAM and flash that go into phones, PCs and — now the big driver — AI data centers). Lebenthal bought it last week and calls it "a value stock," which sounds odd for something up 600%. His point: the price tells you nothing on its own — what matters is earnings. The stock trades at about 7× next year's expected profits (cheap), and those profit estimates are still being revised higher as AI demand drives memory prices up. So even after a huge run it's inexpensive relative to what it now earns.

His mental model is the one analyst Adam Parker laid out: if you're refusing to buy only because you're hoping for a small (5%) dip first, you're really admitting it's a buy at today's price — so just buy it. He compares it directly to investors who wouldn't touch Nvidia in 2023 because it had "already gone up," and missed a massive further move. He concedes Micron is "cyclical" — memory booms and busts — but argues we're only in the "middle innings" of this upcycle, so there's more to come.

AMZN / GOOGL — the Mag-7 "lag-7" hyperscalers Positive

The "Mag 7" are the seven mega-cap tech names; this year they've lagged the market, so wags call them the "lag 7." Lebenthal explains why they're down and argues it's not alarming: they're spending heavily on AI chips for their data centers, and the price of those chips has jumped (input inflation), which squeezes their profit margins a bit. On top of that, these companies already run at very high (~25%) margins that simply can't climb much further — so a little margin give-back, plus expectations that had gotten too high, is enough to knock the share prices down.

His conclusion: Amazon and Alphabet aren't "fatally flawed" — the business engines (AWS grew 28%, Google Cloud 63%) are fine — they just got ahead of themselves. So he treats the pullback as healthy: "a setup for the next leg higher" rather than the start of trouble. (He flags one fair caveat raised on the desk — some of the group's reported earnings were flattered by gains on their private stakes in OpenAI and Anthropic — but says even stripping that out leaves ~25% real operating-earnings growth, which is strong.)

VRTX — Vertex Pharmaceuticals Positive

Vertex is a biotech whose cash machine is its cystic-fibrosis drug franchise — it essentially dominates treatment for that disease, giving it durable, high-margin revenue. Lebenthal's "other shots on goal" means the company has additional drugs in development (in areas like pain and kidney disease) that could each add a new growth leg if they succeed.

He picked it as his final trade to express a broader view: healthcare was "left for dead six months ago" and is now "the hot sector," so he wants a high-quality name to ride that comeback — and Vertex, with a protected core business plus optionality, fits.

DAL — Delta Air Lines Neutral

Lebenthal owns Delta and still likes it for the long haul, but he's hands-off right now. The stock jumped over the past month as the Iran conflict de-escalated (lower oil-war fears help airlines), yet analysts' earnings estimates for the company barely moved — so the price ran ahead of the fundamentals. That's what "overbought" means: up on momentum, not on improved numbers.

So his discipline here is "hold, don't add": nothing is wrong with the company, but he won't put fresh money in at an extended price, and he won't sell either — partly because selling a long-held winner would trigger a big capital-gains tax bill. He'll reassess at the next earnings report, about two weeks out. (A teammate notes Delta and United now operate as a duopoly steadily taking market share — a bullish longer-term backdrop.)

DIS — Walt Disney Neutral

Lebenthal owns Disney and discussed it through the lens of media dealmaking. Comcast just announced it will spin off its NBCUniversal media arm into a separate company; he thinks that newly-independent business is "takeover bait" — i.e. set up to be bought. His reasoning is that mergers and acquisitions in media are very active right now (Warner Bros pairing with Paramount, Roku tied to Fox), and in this industry "size and scale matter," so big players keep buying to bulk up.

The relevance to Disney: as one of the largest, most scaled media companies, Disney sits on the right side of that "scale wins" dynamic — either as a consolidator or simply as a survivor whose assets get more valuable as rivals combine. He didn't issue a new buy or sell on Disney; he's holding it within that consolidation thesis.


Summary derived from the public CNBC Halftime Report audio episode (transcript in transcript.txt) for personal study — Jim Lebenthal's calls only. Not investment advice. © CNBC for source material.