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Energy and metals are on a roll — will it continue in 2026?

A weekly market update: Washington is taking equity stakes in critical-minerals miners, PGMs/copper/tin are breaking out, AI power demand is best played through pipelines and West-Texas land (not the hyperscalers), and oil/oil-services are his contrarian 2026 call — all framed by his buy-when-hated, understand-the-cyclicality resource method.
2025-DEC-06 · AIA Weekly Market Update · John Polomny · ~43 min · ▶ Watch · transcript · actionable insights
In one line: the US has now spent >$1B taking equity stakes in critical-minerals miners (MP Materials, Vulcan Elements, Trilogy Metals) and "expect more" — tens-to-hundreds of billions, plus a likely strategic uranium reserve — so follow that money. Platinum-group metals (a textbook rounding-bottom breakout in palladium) had a strong 2025 and run higher; copper is at fresh highs (~9% of world output offline, Chile struggling, IEA flags a 30%-by-2035 deficit) and he's bullish into 2026 on a contrarian "world-economy-surprises-to-the-upside" call; tin is grinding higher (he owns Alphamin personally). His AIA-newsletter model-portfolio name (described by clues — best-in-class copper asset back to full production, a just-commissioned world-class PGM asset, a top zinc asset, run by a serially-successful entrepreneur, bombed on bad news, risky jurisdiction) is Ivanhoe Mines. AI/data-center power is real but bubbly (OpenAI economics unclear) — play it through energy + pipelines (Energy Transfer, ONEOK, Enbridge approached to feed data centers) and West-Texas land (Texas Pacific Land, LandBridge), not the hyperscalers. Natural gas is the AI "bridge fuel" (LNG export ~doubling toward ~30 bcf/d). Oil & oil services are "the most hated asset in the world" and his big contrarian 2026 call (OIH outperforming, XOP short interest collapsing, offshore rigs at scrap value — Goehring & Rozencwajg). And a teaching case on his watch-list method via beaten-down lumber/Weyerhaeuser (stumpage compounds 6–8%/yr).

1. Stocks & names mentioned

TickerNameResearchViewWhat he saidAt
IVNIvanhoe Mines (TSX: IVN / IVPAF)SA · STK · FAPositiveThe AIA-newsletter model-portfolio name, described by clues: "probably has one of the best copper assets in the world" (had issues, now straightening out, back to full production — Kamoa-Kakula), "just commissioned… probably the best platinum group mineral asset in the world" (Platreef, started up "in the last month or so"), plus "one of the best zinc assets" (Kipushi), "run by one of the best mining entrepreneurs in history, serially successful" (Friedland). "Stock got bombed out on some bad news. The assets were still there… able to buy on discount." A way to play both copper and PGMs.09:42
TPLTexas Pacific LandQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveHis way to own the data-center buildout indirectly: West-Texas players "have the water, the natural gas, and the base" (near the Fermi/Amarillo site), where you can build "and nobody's going to complain." Own the land/royalty layer where the buildout is unopposed, not the operator.17:08
LBLandBridgeQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveNamed alongside Texas Pacific Land as the same West-Texas land/water/power play on data centers — the stranded gas and water (and room) the AI buildout needs. "I think you're going to see movement towards that also."17:08
AFMAlphamin Resources (TSXV: AFM / AFMJF)SA · STKPositiveHis personal-account way to play bullish tin (supply-tight, "grinding higher over the last several years," may "want to go a lot higher"): one of only two real producers, pays "like an 8% dividend." Caveat — the Bisie mine is in the DRC and was shut "for a month or so" earlier in the year on rebel activity (the risk that also let you "buy on discount"). "It's not in the portfolio. I own it in my personal portfolio."11:43
ETEnergy TransferQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveHis preferred way to play AI power demand — "the best way to play it is just through energy and pipelines." Energy Transfer is among the midstream names "being approached by people saying, hey, run a pipe to our power plant for our data center." Not sexy, "may not get 10x," but should beat the S&P.30:09
OKEONEOKQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveNamed with Energy Transfer and Enbridge as a midstream operator "being approached" to run pipe to data-center power plants — the natural-gas bridge fuel for AI demand. Part of the "play it through pipelines" thesis.30:09
ENBEnbridgeQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveThe third pipeline name cited as "being approached" to feed data-center power plants — the toll-collector route to the AI-energy theme via the natural-gas bridge fuel.30:09
OIHVanEck Oil Services ETFSA · STKPositive"Very bullish on oil services." The OIH-vs-S&P ratio looks to be bottoming and turning up (services outperforming); he thinks 2026 is "higher for oil and oil services" and they "come into their own" — offshore drillers already moving.32:02
XOPSPDR S&P Oil & Gas E&P ETFSA · STKPositivePoints to collapsing short interest as the setup: when short interest collapsed in 2021 the ETF ran ~90%. After a "three-year bear market" in oil names, relative strength is improving across integrateds, Canadians, drillers and services — "if short interest collapses… what kind of a move could we be looking at?"32:55
PALLabrdn Physical Palladium Shares ETFSA · STKPositiveUsed as the visual of the PGM bull: a "very classic rounding bottom" — three tries at a level, breakout, consolidation, "poised to move higher," moving average turning up. PGMs "had a really good year… 2025" and he thinks they "continue higher."08:34
SJTSan Juan Basin Royalty TrustQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveA natural-gas beneficiary he likes (AI power demand + heating season + LNG export doubling) — but flags he does not hold it "because I don't like to put companies with K1s" in the portfolio. Names it as a way others could play gas.28:18
WYWeyerhaeuserQT · SA · STK · FANeutral"I'm not saying to go buy this" — a teaching case for his watch-list method. Lumber at decade lows, the chart "a waterfall," but reportedly trading below the value of its timber, and timber "stumpage" compounds ~6–8%/yr. Goes on the watch list until "low prices cure low prices" and the chart bottoms.38:05

Stances are this video's framing only (attributed to Polomny). Timestamps deep-link into the YouTube video. This was a broad weekly macro update — themes (the US taking equity stakes in critical-minerals miners; uranium/SMRs; the copper deficit; the AI-power/natural-gas bridge; the cyclical buy-when-hated method) and names cited only as illustrations (MP Materials, Vulcan Elements, Trilogy Metals as government-stake examples; Rio Tinto's Resolution Copper as a 20-year-permitting example; ExxonMobil as an "IOC you can hold for capital return"; Metals X / First Tin as the other tin names; Amazon/Microsoft/Google/Meta and OpenAI as data-center operators he steers away from; the unnamed "second-largest Canadian natural-gas producer" portfolio holding) are covered in the talking points, not as ticker rows. Research: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis.

2. Talking points

03:03 Washington is taking equity stakes in critical-minerals miners — "expect more"

08:34 Platinum-group metals — a textbook rounding-bottom breakout

09:22 The newsletter's copper + PGM + zinc name (clues → Ivanhoe)

10:56 Tin — under-followed, supply-tight

12:52 Copper at new highs — bullish into 2026 on a contrarian world-economy call

15:54 AI is physical — but bubbly; play the energy, not the hyperscalers

17:08 West-Texas land — own where the buildout is unopposed

20:18 The IEA's 30%-by-2035 copper deficit — and how he reads it

22:22 Resources are speculations, not investments — understand the cyclicality

28:18 Natural gas — the AI bridge fuel; LNG export ~doubling

31:40 Oil & oil services — his big contrarian 2026 call

37:42 The watch-list method — lumber/Weyerhaeuser as the teaching case

3. In plain English

A jargon-free summary of why each name is in the video. (Plain-language companion to the table above; renders on each ticker's consolidated page.)

IVN — Ivanhoe Mines Positive

Polomny won't name his paid-newsletter pick outright, but he describes it so specifically it can only be Ivanhoe Mines. Ivanhoe was founded by Robert Friedland, a famous mining dealmaker, and owns three standout assets in Africa: a huge copper mine (Kamoa-Kakula) that had operating problems and is getting back to full output, a brand-new platinum-group-metals mine (Platreef) that just switched on, and one of the world's best zinc deposits (Kipushi).

The stock fell hard on bad news even though the mines themselves are fine, so he was able to buy it cheaply. The catch is location — these are in the Democratic Republic of Congo and South Africa, not the safest places, which is the risk you accept for assets this good. He likes that one stock gives him both copper and platinum-group exposure at once.

TPL — Texas Pacific Land Positive

Texas Pacific Land owns a vast amount of land (plus water and royalty rights) in West Texas. AI data centers need three things in one place — electricity, water and somewhere nobody will object to a giant power-hungry building. West Texas has stranded natural gas and water and very few neighbors, so Polomny wants to own the landlord/toll-collector rather than the data-center operator. He thinks money will increasingly flow toward sites like the new Fermi project near Amarillo.

LB — LandBridge Positive

LandBridge is the same idea as Texas Pacific Land — a West-Texas land company sitting on the water, gas and open space that data centers need. Polomny groups the two together as the way to play the AI buildout indirectly: collect the "rent" on the land the boom requires instead of betting on any single tech tenant.

AFM — Alphamin Resources Positive

Tin is a metal almost nobody talks about, used heavily in electronics (solder). There are only two real tin producers in the world, and Alphamin is one of them — and it pays a big dividend (around 8%). Its mine (Bisie) is in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and it had to shut for about a month this year because of rebel fighting nearby, which is exactly the kind of scare that let buyers get the shares cheap.

Polomny is bullish on tin (tight supply, the price grinding higher since 2022) and owns Alphamin — but in his personal account, not his newsletter model portfolio, so it's a personal-conviction holding rather than an official recommendation.

ET — Energy Transfer Positive

Energy Transfer owns pipelines — the toll roads that move natural gas around the country. Because AI data centers need enormous amounts of power and natural gas is the quickest "bridge" fuel until nuclear catches up, pipeline companies are literally being asked to "run a pipe to our power plant." Polomny's view: the safest way to play the AI-energy boom is to own the pipeline collecting fees, not the flashy tech company. It won't 10x, but it should beat the market and pays you while you wait.

OKE — ONEOK Positive

ONEOK is another big natural-gas pipeline and processing company. Polomny lists it with Energy Transfer and Enbridge as midstream operators being approached to pipe gas to new data-center power plants — the same "own the toll road, not the tenant" way to ride AI power demand.

ENB — Enbridge Positive

Enbridge is a large North American pipeline company. It's the third name Polomny cites as being asked to deliver gas to data-center power plants. Same thesis: a steady, dividend-paying toll-collector positioned to benefit from the energy that AI requires, without the bubble risk of the tech names themselves.

OIH — VanEck Oil Services ETF Positive

OIH is a basket of oil-services companies — the firms that drill wells and supply equipment to oil producers. Polomny is "very bullish" on this group: compared against the S&P 500 it looks like it has stopped falling and started to outperform, which often marks the beginning of a multi-year run. He thinks 2026 is a higher year for oil and the services that support it, with offshore drillers already moving.

XOP — SPDR S&P Oil & Gas E&P ETF Positive

XOP is a basket of oil and gas producers. Polomny points to "short interest" — the number of traders betting it will fall — which is very high but starting to drop. The last time those bearish bets unwound (around 2021), the ETF jumped roughly 90%. After a three-year slump and with sentiment this negative, he sees the setup for a big move once the shorts give up.

PALL — abrdn Physical Palladium Shares ETF Positive

PALL simply holds physical palladium, one of the platinum-group metals (used in catalytic converters and electronics). Polomny uses its chart to illustrate the bull case: a long "rounding bottom" where the price tested a ceiling three times, finally broke through, paused, and now looks set to climb. He thinks platinum-group metals, after a strong 2025, keep heading higher.

SJT — San Juan Basin Royalty Trust Positive

SJT is a royalty trust — it owns a slice of the income from natural-gas wells and passes the cash to holders. Polomny likes it as a way to benefit from rising gas demand (AI power, winter heating, and a near-doubling of US gas exports). The catch for him personally is tax paperwork: trusts like this issue a "K-1" form, which he avoids in his portfolio, so he names it as an option for others rather than something he holds.

WY — Weyerhaeuser Neutral

Weyerhaeuser is one of the largest owners of timberland. Lumber prices are at decade lows because little is being built, and the stock has fallen in a straight line — so Polomny explicitly is not buying it yet. He uses it to show his process: when a quality company gets crushed by a cheap commodity, he parks it on a watch list and checks back every few weeks for signs the decline is ending.

What makes timber special is "stumpage" — the trees keep physically growing about 6–8% bigger every year, so the underlying asset compounds in value even while lumber prices are low. With the stock reportedly trading below the value of its timber, it's a "wait for the cycle to turn" candidate, not a buy today.


Talking points and stances distilled from the public YouTube video for personal study. Not investment advice; Polomny is not a registered financial adviser (his own disclaimer). The named newsletter holding (Ivanhoe) is identified from his on-air clues and his existing AIA-portfolio position, not from a paywalled disclosure. © John Polomny / Actionable Intelligence for source material.