AIA Free Weekly Email 6.17.26 — oil, "the abundance illusion," datacenters = the new shale oil, uranium
A free weekly link-roundup with Polomny's own commentary: Jeff Currie on oil & the "abundance illusion," Polomny's negative-ROIC datacenter thesis (GOOG/META equity issuance = capex bubble), and Guy Keller's $120/lb uranium case.
In one line: Polomny's free roundup — he agrees with Jeff Currie that commodities go higher longer-term but calls the US/Iran MOU "a strategic defeat for the US" (worse than the JCPOA; Iran cashes up for "round two" as the SPR is drained), endorses Currie's "abundance illusion" framing (record-bearish oil sentiment is the contrarian tell), and lands his own punch: AI datacenters are "deeply negative ROIC investments" — "the new shale oil" — with GOOG's first major equity issuance since 2004 (and META reportedly considering one) the desperation tell of a MAG7 capital-intensity bubble that ends in "the crash and the reallocation of capital." Plus Guy Keller's structural uranium-must-go-to-$120/lb case.
1. Stocks & names mentioned
| Ticker | Name | Research | View | What he said | Source |
|---|
| GOOG | Alphabet | QT · SA · STK · FA | Negative | AI datacenters are "deeply negative ROIC investments," yet hyperscalers build them anyway — used up annual cash flow, took on debt, and now "Alphabet (GOOG) has even resorted to its first major equity issuance since 2004" to fund them. Datacenters = "the new shale oil" (the negative-ROIC drilling analog); MAG7 "no longer the high-margin, asset-light businesses they once were." Profitless growth in a revolutionary industry "goes on until it can't," then "the crash and the reallocation of capital." | read ↗ |
| META | Meta Platforms | QT · SA · STK · FA | Negative | Same datacenter-capex theme: "Meta reportedly considering one [a major equity issuance] as well now" to fund the same deeply negative-ROIC datacenter buildout — the desperation tell that MAG7 capital intensity has outrun the (absent) profits. | read ↗ |
Stances are this post's framing only (attributed to Polomny). This was a roundup of others' content (Jeff Currie, Guy Keller) — only securities Polomny himself takes a view on are listed; commodities (oil, uranium, rare earths), persons (Jeff Currie / Guy Keller) and their firms (Abaxx Markets, Tribeca) are covered in the talking points, not as ticker rows. "read ↗" opens the free post on Substack. Research: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis.
2. Talking points
"I'm A Buyer Of Oil Here" | Jeff Currie — but the MOU is a "strategic defeat"
- Three months after the US/Iran war began, an oil price shock is still feeding inflation and stoking fears of an actual inventory shortage. The featured interview is with Jeff Currie (Executive Co-Chairman of Abaxx Markets), arguing he's a buyer of oil here.
- Polomny: longer-term, Currie "will be right with respect to higher commodity prices," but he's skeptical of the announced US/Iran peace deal. The consensus is the Strait of Hormuz reopens and everything normalizes; the Memo of Understanding has "many ways this can go off the rails."
- "This is a strategic defeat for the US… a worse outcome than the JCPOA that Obama negotiated and Trump canceled." Iran comes out great — a stoppage in hostilities, a chance to "rearm and prepare for the inevitable resumption"; the IRGC stays in control and is "cashed up for round two." The US Navy "shown to be obsolete" by drones and missiles. "The continued decline of the US empire."
- Why Trump backed off: the administration was "weeks away" from $100+ oil as strategic reserves were depleted — someone got the President to understand what that would mean for the economy and the November election.
Jeff Currie's essay — "The abundance illusion"
- Carter's February 1977 "cardigan" address and the MEOW speech named the secure-domestic-energy program the "energy transition" — a term about energy security, not the environment (Nixon's Project Independence; Ford's SPR). Carter admitted scarcity honestly — and it was politically fatal.
- The "abundance illusion" his successors drew: never admit to scarcity. Reassure markets with words and hundreds of millions of barrels from strategic reserves; the inventory buffer became the policy. "It has worked for every US Administration since Bush Sr." — consume the insurance, call it abundance, avoid rebalancing; the energy transition curdled into a green-vs-brown fight.
- The template is being applied again: prices are down ~20% from the 2026 peak; a Goldman Sachs survey of 839 institutional investors (June 1–3, 2026) found a record two-thirds expecting oil to fall further — the most bearish reading in the poll's ten-year history. Energy equities sit at pre-war lows; long-dated futures price a swift return to normal.
- The consensus explanation is China's crude-import decline = "demand destruction," the market rebalancing rationally. Currie: "a compelling narrative, but in my view it is also wrong."
"Datacenters Are the New Shale Oil…" (Polomny's own thesis)
- He's now written two pieces (Piece 1, Piece 2) on AI-datacenter economics — "nothing shakes me from my view that these are deeply negative ROIC investments," yet hyperscalers build anyway.
- The funding ladder of desperation: used up most annual cash flow, then took on debt, and now "Alphabet (GOOG) has even resorted to its first major equity issuance since 2004 (with Meta reportedly considering one as well now)." He hasn't seen a single model showing a datacenter with positive ROIC.
- The analogy: last decade's shale patch. He had a window into shale via "frequent calls to shale CEOs, pleading with them to stop drilling wells with negative ROICs at then-current strip prices" — and sees the same mentality in datacenters.
- Many MAG7 are "no longer the high-margin, asset-light businesses they once were" — building data centers and power plants demands huge capex, and "where are the profits?" We've seen profitless growth in a revolutionary new industry before: "it goes on until it can't." Then "the crash and the reallocation of capital, which hopefully is into our favored sectors."
"Why Uranium Must Go to $120/lb" | Guy Keller's ASX Uranium Outlook (LEVRD)
- An episode of LEVRD: host Matt with Tribeca Investment Partners' Guy Keller on uranium, nuclear energy, and the ASX-listed uranium sector.
- Despite a brutal 12-month sell-off in uranium equities, Keller argues the fundamental supply-demand picture stays extremely strong and prices "ultimately need to move significantly higher to incentivize the next wave of mine development."
- Covers Chinese investment in uranium projects, utility contracting, and the outlook for some of the ASX's largest uranium companies.
3. In plain English
GOOG — Alphabet Negative
Polomny isn't shorting Alphabet — he's flagging a warning sign. "ROIC" (return on invested capital) is just: for every dollar a company sinks into a project, how many cents of profit does it earn back? His claim is that AI datacenters earn back less than they cost — a money-losing use of capital — yet Google keeps building them. The tell he points to: Google has paid for this buildout first out of its own cash flow, then by borrowing, and now by issuing new stock for the first major time since 2004. Selling new shares dilutes existing owners, and a famously cash-rich company only reaches for it when the spending has outrun what cash and debt can cover.
His bigger frame: the "MAG7" mega-caps used to be lean, high-margin software businesses; now they're pouring money into datacenters and power plants like a heavy-industry company, but the profits from all that spending aren't showing up. He compares it to last decade's shale-oil boom, where drillers kept sinking money into wells that didn't earn their cost back — growth for its own sake that "goes on until it can't," then ends in a bust and a rotation of money into cheaper, out-of-favor sectors (which is where he wants to be positioned).
META — Meta Platforms Negative
Same story, second data point. Polomny notes Meta is "reportedly considering" its own big stock issuance to fund the identical AI-datacenter spending spree. He reads that as confirmation, not coincidence: when two of the most cash-generative companies on Earth both reach for selling new shares to keep building, it signals the capital intensity of the AI buildout has overwhelmed the cash these businesses actually throw off — the hallmark of a capex bubble, in his view, not a sound investment.
Key points extracted from the public AIA free weekly email (in the saved note) for personal study. Curated items are Jeff Currie's and Guy Keller's; stances on GOOG/META are Polomny's own wording. Not investment advice. © John Polomny / Actionable Intelligence Alert for source material.