AIA Weekly Free Email 6.24.26 — Kopernik on debasement & private-credit gates, Latin America, Hormuz commodities, margin debt, uranium
A free weekly link-roundup with Polomny's own commentary: Kopernik / Dave Iben on dollar debasement, perpetual $2T deficits and rising private-credit redemption GATES; a possible decade of Latin-American outperformance; sulfur doubling through the Strait of Hormuz; margin debt at new highs as a probabilistic top signal; and Polomny's reiterated multi-year uranium bull thesis (via Mike Alkin).
In one line: a macro/themes roundup — Polomny endorses Kopernik / Dave Iben's debasement case (the dollar has lost >99.5% of its value vs gold over a century while governments grow comfortable with perpetual $2T deficits, and "devaluation is endemic… especially to democracies"), flags the spread of redemption GATES across the "overdone" private-credit arena as a tell that "a reallocation of wealth is underway" (Caveat Emptor), sees "a decade of outperformance" possible in market-friendlier Latin America, notes sulfur has doubled as a second-order Hormuz effect, reads margin debt at new highs as a probabilistic — not certain — top signal ("I deal in probabilities"), and reiterates his own uranium bull thesis (nuclear growing, supply not keeping pace, "uranium will move higher over the next decade"). No specific current securities are named (Pets.com appears only as a dot-com-bubble cautionary example).
Talking points
Kopernik (Dave Iben), June 2026 — dollar debasement & the rule-of-law erosion read ↗
- Polomny highlights Kopernik Global Investors / Dave Iben as among his favorite value-investor analysts to follow ("Good read and a great follow"). The quoted thesis: the next 30 years will be much worse given how comfortable governments have become with perpetual $2 trillion deficits.
- Over the past century the dollar has lost over 99.5% of its value relative to gold; devaluation is "endemic to all systems, and especially to democracies." Cites Alexander Fraser Tytler: "democracies can only last until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury."
- Worrisome for holders of debt: politics increasingly trumping the rule of law — mortgages forgiven, student loans and rents deferred, and Liability Management Exercises (LMEs) becoming commonplace (cites Jim Grant).
Private credit — the spread of redemption GATES read ↗
- In the "overdone" private-credit arena, the increasing usage of GATES in recent months — funds limiting or halting investor withdrawals — suggests "a reallocation of wealth is underway." Caveat Emptor.
- Frames it as a continuation of the rule-of-law-erosion theme: when redemptions can be suspended, the holder of the paper bears the cost of the illiquidity that was sold as a yield premium.
2026 emerging-market performance — Latin America read ↗
- Several South American markets are performing. As the political landscape shifts toward more market-friendly government, perception will shift, enabling capital flows.
- Polomny: "We might be looking at a decade of outperformance in Latin American markets." (Consistent with the frontier/EM-value tilt of his standing book.)
A blast from the past — the dot-com cautionary tale read ↗
- A look back at picks on 1999–2001 internet-bubble stocks, with Pets.com as one of the most egregious examples — a cautionary valuation analogy (echoing his ongoing AI/IPO-mania warnings), not a current holding.
Strait of Hormuz commodities — sulfur has doubled read ↗
- Many resources besides oil and gas travel through the Strait of Hormuz. In particular, the price of sulfur has doubled since the conflict began — a second/third-order ("page-16 story moving to page one") effect of the Gulf disruption.
Margin debt at new highs — a probabilistic top signal read ↗
- Margin debt is making new highs. In the past, when margin debt reached current levels, the market has been at a top and then suffered a big drawdown.
- Does this mean the market has topped? "No — but as I have stated before, I deal in probabilities." A risk gauge tilting the odds, not a timing call.
"Time Arbitrage & Fourth Grade Math" (Mike Alkin) — the uranium bull reiterated read ↗
- Bottom line: nuclear power is growing but uranium supply is not keeping pace with demand. The stocks fluctuate on sentiment and liquidity, but "we are in a bull market, and uranium will move higher over the next decade."
- Polomny presents this as his own reiterated, long-standing uranium thesis — a multi-year supply-deficit cycle to be held through the volatility.
Key points extracted from the public AIA free weekly email (in the saved note) for personal study. This was a macro/themes roundup of others' commentary (Kopernik / Dave Iben, Mike Alkin) with Polomny's own framing — no specific current securities were named, so there is no stock table (Pets.com is cited only as a defunct dot-com-bubble example, not a holding). Not investment advice. © John Polomny / Actionable Intelligence Alert for source material.