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Josef Schachter — Oil Prices Break US$100 Again, Here's What's Next

"We're on the fifth hole of the golf course" — the Calgary energy analyst puts a ~$30 war premium on $101 WTI, calls record oil above $147 by decade-end, and screens cheap Canadian producers by how far their cash-flow multiple sits below their proved-producing reserve life.
2026-SEP-14 · Investing News Network (host Charlotte McLeod) · guest Josef Schachter — president & author, Schachter Energy Report · 43:54 · ▶ Watch · transcript · actionable insights
One-line take: Oil is back above US$100 (WTI ~$101.5, Brent ~$105) on escalation in the Iran war — faster Iranian missiles, US strikes on tankers, and Houthi gains near Bab el-Mandeb — and Schachter prices the war premium at ~$30 ("probably in the 70s" without it) that he does not expect to fade this year; Iran "wins just by not losing." Structurally he is more bullish still: a commodity super-cycle that began in 2020 and could run to the mid-2030s, record oil above US$147 by the end of the decade, a US SPR drawn to 285 Mb (Secretary Wright sees 180–200), refining crack spreads at ~$100/bbl, and Canada as a security-of-supply winner (LNG Canada phase 2, TMX expansion, a stronger loonie at 80–85¢). The stock screen: cash-flow multiples should first rise to the PDP reserve life, then toward 2PBIR.TO 2.8x vs 7.2-yr PDP, PEY.TO 3.9x vs 9.9, BNE.TO 1.6x vs 6.2. "Five and 10 baggers" are out there; today's bargains are the natural-gas / NGL producers and the service names (TCW nearer its 52-week low than its high); the oily names can wait for a pullback. Talking his book: he sells a 35-company subscription and runs a paid conference; he and his wife own 10 energy names (not disclosed). Timestamps link into the video.

1. Stocks & names mentioned

TickerNameResearchViewWhat he saidAt
BIR.TOBirchcliff EnergySA · STK · FAPositiveLead example of the reserve-life screen: a natural gas producer with a PDP reserve life of 7.2 years and a 2P of 31 years "but it trades only at 2.8 times" cash flow — the multiple should rise toward PDP now and toward 2P late in the cycle. CEO Chris Carlson presents at his October conference.23:38
PEY.TOPeyto Exploration & DevelopmentSA · STK · FAPositiveSecond gas example: "trades at 3.9 times cash flow, has a 9.9 PDP years and 28.2 for a 2P" — a multiple well below its proved-producing reserve life.24:03
Cavvy Energy (probable — caption "cavy energy"; ticker not verified)PositiveThird gas example: "3.5 times cash flow, 12.7 PDP years and 31 years 2P." Identification from the caption is probable, not certain, so no ticker is assigned.24:03
BNE.TOBonterra EnergySA · STK · FAPositiveThe cheapest oil example: "trades at 1.6 times cash flow. PDP is 6.2 and 2P is 19.7" — oil reserve lives run shorter than gas, but the multiple still sits far below PDP.24:27
IPO.TOInPlay OilSA · STK · FAPositiveOil example: "3.5 times cash flow against 6.7 [PDP years] and 16.8 for 2P."24:27
OBEObsidian Energy (TSX / NYSE American)QT · SA · STK · FAPositiveOil example: "4.2 times cash flow and 6.9 PDP, 16.8 for 2P." "The cash flow multiple has to rise to PDP first. Then it goes higher as the commodity prices go higher."24:27
SCR.TOStrathcona ResourcesSA · STK · FAPositiveHis oil-sands pick: "we've been recommending Strathcona for a long time," valued for the very long reserve life the oil sands carry. Part of a mixed portfolio of gas producers, conventional oil, oil sands and service names.25:44
TCWTrican Well ServiceSA · STK · FAPositiveHis named service-sector bargain: "Trican is very cheap" — high for the year C$8.40, now C$6.30, low C$5.19, "so it's closer to the low than the high." The service sector "is where the bargains are today" for money to put to work now.33:00
CEU.TOCES Energy SolutionsSA · STK · FAPositiveNamed among the oil-service names to own ("you've got names like Trican and CES and Total Energy"); service stocks are "very cheap" versus history.26:20
TOT.TOTotal Energy ServicesSA · STK · FAPositiveNamed in the same oil-service list; the service sector is where he sees today's bargains.26:20
PD.TOPrecision DrillingQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveDriller named in the oil-service list ("and Precision Drilling and Ensign Drilling. So there's opportunities in all three areas").26:20
ESI.TOEnsign Energy Services ("Ensign Drilling")SA · STK · FAPositiveDriller named in the same oil-service list alongside Precision.26:20
TPZ.TOTopaz Energy (royalty)SA · STK · FAPositiveCovered in the Schachter Energy Report as one of its royalty names ("we cover Topaz and Freehold") — the income sleeve of a dividend-focused energy book.30:57
FRU.TOFreehold RoyaltiesSA · STK · FAPositiveThe other royalty name covered in the report ("we cover Topaz and Freehold").30:57
TVE.TOTamarack Valley EnergySA · STK · FAPositiveAnnounced a one-for-one share merger with Headwater (same day) to form an 80,000 boe/d pure Clearwater play after selling its Charlie Lake assets; the bigger company "will get a premier multiple" as institutions can own it. Stock C$5.20 at the 52-week low, C$13.58 today.35:49
HWX.TOHeadwater ExplorationSA · STK · FAPositiveMerger partner in the Tamarack deal: Headwater "is probably a bit ahead of the curve versus Tamarack on waterflooding," showing Clearwater decline rates coming down; the combined company will push more waterflooding.34:52
SUSuncor EnergyQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveThe low-risk way in: "if your risk tolerance is low then buy the Suncors and the CNQs" — large, liquid integrated names; higher-risk investors can go to cheaper billion-dollar mid-caps.29:14
CNQCanadian Natural ResourcesQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveNamed with Suncor as the low-risk-tolerance choice for resource exposure.29:14
CVECenovus Energy (probable — caption "soes")QT · SA · STK · FAPositiveThird name in the low-risk large-cap trio ("the Suncors and the CNQs and soes"); read as Cenovus from context (a large Canadian integrated), identification probable.29:14
Trans MountainTrans Mountain Corporation — TMX pipeline (federal Crown corporation)PositiveTMX wants to spend C$2.9 billion to lift capacity to 1.2 million bbl/d, then add another million bbl/d by 2032–34 — part of the West Coast egress build-out that lets Alberta and Saskatchewan grow production for export.28:32
LNG CanadaLNG Canada (Shell-led joint venture, Kitimat BC)PositiveCanada's 2 Bcf/d of LNG today; a phase-2 final investment decision may come as buyers seek non-Middle-East supply, and Canada "could have six or seven" Bcf/d by 2031–32 if the queued projects are built.05:39
Ksi Lisims LNGKsi Lisims LNG (probable — caption "Cass CM"; private Nisga'a-led project)PositiveNamed as a possible second FID after LNG Canada phase 2 ("maybe the Cass CM deal") as Ottawa talks about streamlining approvals. Identification probable.05:39
TOUTourmaline OilSA · STK · FANeutralConference mention only: "if you want to talk to Mike Rose at Tourmaline" — a CEO attending Catch the Energy on Oct 17. No stated view.38:18
PRQ.TOPetrus ResourcesSA · STK · FANeutralConference mention only: "you want to talk to Ken Gray at Petrus" — a presenting company at Catch the Energy. No stated view.38:18
NVDANVIDIAQT · SA · STK · FANeutralAnalogy, not a pick: "look at Nvidia stock" — when value creation is recognized "the stock price can go nuts"; that has happened in semis, AI and gold but "hasn't happened yet in energy." Chip-price inflation also used to explain the crack-spread surge.40:39
AnthropicAnthropic (private)NeutralSame analogy: "look at the private market value of Anthropic" as an example of how fast value gets recognized — a rerating he expects to spread into the resource sector.40:39

"View" is Josef Schachter's stance in this conversation (Positive / Neutral / Negative), not a price rating. Book: he and his wife own 10 energy names (18 stocks in total), dividend-focused with some speculative names — the holdings are not disclosed; Topaz and Freehold are named as covered in his subscription report; he recently harvested gains in one unnamed "oily name." Identifications that are probable, not certain: "cavy energy" (read as Cavvy Energy — left without a ticker), "soes" (read as Cenovus) and "Cass CM" (read as Ksi Lisims LNG). Unnamed: refiners in general (positive on crack spreads and dividends). Research: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis.

2. Talking points

00:43 From $70 back to $101 — the war resumes

02:02 The midterm politics of the war

03:15 The Houthis and the second strait

04:27 Security of supply favors the Americas

06:37 Price deck: $80 too low, $90 next year, record by decade-end

07:54 A super-cycle from 2020 to the mid-2030s

08:57 A stronger Canadian dollar

09:41 US SPR at 285 Mb — and room to fall

10:07 Crack spreads at $100 — refiners get $200

11:13 No settlement soon — Iran wins by not losing

13:19 Collateral shortages: sulfur and Gulf shipping

14:46 Refining is a NIMBY bottleneck

16:51 China: the 1.4-billion-barrel swing buyer

18:34 Q3 and Q4 earnings will be "unbelievably strong"

20:21 Winter demand and the marginal buyer

21:54 Gas: stranded prices vs LNG access

23:06 The reserve-life screen: PDP vs cash-flow multiple

25:05 The gold-stock rerating template

25:44 A mixed energy book — and his own

27:17 Carney reverses Trudeau: build for new markets

29:14 Size by risk tolerance: majors vs cheap mid-caps

30:16 "The fifth hole of the golf course"

31:17 Pullbacks are the entry points

33:00 Where to put money today: gas, NGLs, services

34:52 Tamarack + Headwater: scale earns a premier multiple

36:48 The product and the Catch the Energy conference

39:51 Beyond energy: longer cycles need bigger upside

3. In plain English

A jargon-free summary of the thesis behind each name — what it actually is and why he holds that view. (Plain-language companion to the table above; renders on each ticker's consolidated page.)

BIR.TO — Birchcliff Energy Positive

Birchcliff produces natural gas in Alberta. Schachter uses it to show his main valuation test. Companies report their reserves in layers: "PDP" (proved developed producing) is gas from wells already flowing — the conservative number banks will lend against; "2P" adds reserves that are proved or probable but not yet developed. Dividing those reserves by annual production gives a reserve life in years.

Birchcliff has about 7 years of already-producing reserves and about 31 years including probable ones, yet the market values it at only 2.8 times its yearly cash flow. His rule of thumb is that at this stage of the cycle the multiple should at least match the producing reserve life (so roughly 7 times), and later in the cycle move toward the bigger 2P number — which implies a lot of room for the share price to rise if gas prices hold.

PEY.TO — Peyto Exploration & Development Positive

Peyto is a low-cost Alberta natural gas producer. On his screen it trades at 3.9 times cash flow while it has about 10 years of already-producing reserves and 28 years including probable reserves. In plain terms: investors are paying for less than four years of cash flow for a company whose existing wells alone should keep producing for about a decade — the gap he expects to close as the cycle matures.

BNE.TO — Bonterra Energy Positive

Bonterra is a small Alberta oil producer and the cheapest name he cites: 1.6 times cash flow against about 6 years of producing reserves and 20 years including probable. Oil fields typically show shorter reserve lives than gas, so the numbers are lower, but the stock still trades at a fraction of what his reserve-life rule would suggest. Small producers like this are the higher-risk, higher-upside end of his energy book.

IPO.TO — InPlay Oil Positive

InPlay is a small Alberta light-oil producer. It trades at 3.5 times cash flow while its already-producing reserves would last about 6.7 years (16.8 including probable). Schachter's point is that the market should first pay a multiple roughly equal to that producing reserve life — about double today's level — before paying anything for the undeveloped reserves.

OBE — Obsidian Energy Positive

Obsidian is a Calgary oil producer listed in both Toronto and New York. It trades at 4.2 times cash flow with about 7 years of producing reserves and 17 including probable. Along with Bonterra and InPlay, it is his example that even oil producers — whose reserve lives are shorter than gas companies' — are priced below what their existing wells justify, with extra upside if oil prices stay high and investors become willing to pay more for each dollar of cash flow, as happened with gold miners.

SCR.TO — Strathcona Resources Positive

Strathcona produces heavy oil, much of it from the oil sands in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Oil-sands projects don't decline quickly like ordinary wells — they can produce for decades from the same deposit — so the company's reserve life is very long. Schachter has recommended it "for a long time" as the oil-sands part of a balanced Canadian energy portfolio, next to gas producers, conventional oil producers and service companies.

TCW — Trican Well Service Positive

Trican is an oilfield-service company: it doesn't own oil or gas, it gets paid to pump water, sand and chemicals into wells to fracture the rock and cement them. Its business rises and falls with how much drilling producers do. Schachter says service stocks are where the bargains are right now — they haven't kept up with oil's jump — and Trican is his example: about C$6.30, much closer to this year's low of C$5.19 than its high of C$8.40. If high prices lead producers to drill more, service companies should get busier.

TVE.TO — Tamarack Valley Energy Positive

Tamarack produces oil in Alberta's Clearwater formation. It has been using "waterflooding" — injecting water into the reservoir to push more oil toward the wells — which slows how fast production falls and recovers more oil from each field. It sold its other (Charlie Lake) assets to focus on Clearwater and has just agreed to merge one-for-one with Headwater, creating an 80,000 barrel-a-day company.

His view is that size matters: a bigger company can be owned by large institutional investors, so it tends to earn a higher valuation. He also points to how far the stock has already come — from about C$5.20 at its low to C$13.58 — as proof that buying when a stock looks like a bargain pays off.

HWX.TO — Headwater Exploration Positive

Headwater is the other half of the Tamarack merger, also a Clearwater oil producer. Schachter thinks Headwater was a step ahead in proving that waterflooding works there — its wells' decline rates are falling, meaning production holds up longer. The combined company is expected to apply that approach more aggressively across a much bigger land base.

SU — Suncor Energy Positive

Suncor is one of Canada's largest energy companies: it mines oil sands, refines the oil and sells fuel at its own gas stations. For investors who want energy exposure without much risk, Schachter's advice is to buy the big, liquid names like Suncor and Canadian Natural rather than the small producers. With crack spreads (the profit from turning crude into diesel and jet fuel) near record levels, a company that owns refineries also benefits from that margin.

CNQ — Canadian Natural Resources Positive

Canadian Natural is Canada's largest oil and gas producer, with long-life oil sands and conventional oil and gas. It is one of the two names he suggests for low-risk investors: it is large and easy to trade, and pays a dividend, while still benefiting from the high oil prices and long commodity cycle he expects.

Trans Mountain — TMX pipeline Positive

Trans Mountain is the federally owned pipeline that carries Alberta oil to the BC coast, where it can be loaded on tankers for Asia. It is not a listed stock. Schachter cites its plan to spend C$2.9 billion to raise capacity to 1.2 million barrels a day, and another million barrels a day by the early 2030s, as a sign Canada is building the export routes that let its producers grow — which supports the value of the listed producers above.

LNG Canada Positive

LNG Canada is a Shell-led plant in Kitimat, BC, that chills natural gas into a liquid so it can be shipped overseas. It is a private joint venture, not a stock. Canadian gas sells for about C$1.40 while Asian buyers pay over US$20 for shipped cargoes; plants like this let Canadian gas reach those prices. Schachter sees a possible go-ahead for its second phase, and Canada growing from 2 to perhaps 6–7 billion cubic feet a day of exports by 2031–32 — the reason he is keen on Canadian gas producers.


Compiled from the public YouTube video for personal study. Stances are Josef Schachter's own as stated on 2026-09-14. He publishes the subscription Schachter Energy Report, runs the paid Catch the Energy conference, and personally owns 10 undisclosed energy names. Not investment advice.