Joseph Carlson — Ask Me Anything, September 2026 (Qualtrim Studio

One-line take: A short member AMA. The investable answers: Uber survives Waymo — "the real deal," but Uber still has peak density even in Los Angeles, Waymo eats "at the edges," and a hybrid AV network plus white space means both can win (Tesla's robotaxi "hasn't proven anything"); Alphabet is a hold at ~$342 ("a normal valuation") with an add level around $250–260, its AI moat being distribution and the full stack rather than the best model; the AI build-out is not a scam (OpenAI/Anthropic revenue is paying demand; crypto is the overhyped one). Personal-finance context: he sold his old house to dodge ~$80k of capital-gains tax, deliberately doesn't flood the public portfolio with Qualtrim income, and parks extra money in SCHG and now VTI. He wants every stock he's sold (Salesforce, Equifax, Intuit, Booking, Apple, Chipotle) to do well.

1. Stocks & names mentioned

An AMA episode. "View" is his stance in this video: Positive = held/bullish or defended; Neutral = hold-not-buy or a sold holding he still rates; Negative = dismissed. Research: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis. Timestamps reference the self-hosted, login-gated Qualtrim Studio recording (no public deep-link — the link opens the video).

"View" is Joseph Carlson's stance in this video, not a price rating. Sold holdings are Neutral: he rates them as great companies but prefers his current book.

2. Talking points

Ticker	Name	Research	View	What he said	At
UBER	Uber Technologies	QT · SA · STK · FA	Positive	Answering "does Waymo break the density thesis?": Waymo "will eat away at the edges" and take some big-city share, but even in Los Angeles, where Waymo is strongest, "Uber is still doing good… they still have peak density." Uber has white space, will run a hybrid network of licensed AVs, and transport is big enough for both to win — the loss case is Waymo opening everywhere with no other AV suppliers in ten years.	7:50
SCHG	Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF	SA · STK	Positive	Where most of his ETF money goes (a few hundred thousand dollars across ETFs) — a US growth index "very similar to my portfolio," held as an unopinionated retirement slice.	13:29
VTI	Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF	SA · STK	Positive	Recently started buying (~$30–40k) because it is "less opinionated" than SCHG — ~5,000 US companies, market-cap weighted.	13:47
NVDA	NVIDIA	QT · SA · STK · FA	Positive	"Is the AI build-out a scam?" — "definitely not": a scam means selling something that doesn't work, while every business is adopting AI because it's useful. Nvidia's revenue is GPUs; the proof of end demand is OpenAI/Anthropic revenue from customers "willingly paying."	19:23
OpenAI	OpenAI (private)	—	Positive	Its revenue is the evidence the AI build-out isn't a scam — "real revenue from real customers because of real use cases," growing because usage keeps expanding.	22:06
Anthropic	Anthropic (private)	—	Positive	Cited with OpenAI: growing "so fast because it's incredibly useful" — companies expand usage after trying it rather than cancelling.	22:37
GOOGL	Alphabet	QT · SA · STK · FA	Neutral	Held, not a buy at ~$342 — "just at a normal valuation… nothing special." Would add "probably around 260… if it goes down [to] 250." Agrees the moat isn't having the single best model but the full stack: good-enough Gemini + cloud + TPUs (less Nvidia reliance) + YouTube/Gmail/Maps + Android devices, which "gives them a million ways to make money."	14:42
Waymo	Waymo (Alphabet)	—	Neutral	"The real deal" and Uber's real competitor — 500,000 weekly paid rides — but even in its best markets Uber keeps peak density; he expects share erosion at the edges, not displacement.	7:33
CRM	Salesforce	QT · SA · STK · FA	Neutral	A sold holding now ~20% above his exit; "I'm happy Salesforce is doing well. I hope that it continues to recover and goes to $300."	26:04
EFX	Equifax	QT · SA · STK · FA	Neutral	Sold; "I also think will do well."	26:51
INTU	Intuit	QT · SA · STK · FA	Neutral	Sold; "has challenges, but it's got such a lock on so many customers. I think it'll do great."	27:08
BKNG	Booking Holdings	QT · SA · STK · FA	Neutral	Sold; "continues to [put up] great performance."	26:51
AAPL	Apple	QT · SA · STK · FA	Neutral	Sold; "Apple's done really well."	26:51
CMG	Chipotle Mexican Grill	QT · SA · STK · FA	Neutral	Sold; named among the "fantastic" companies he expects to do well in the long haul.	27:40
TSLA	Tesla	QT · SA · STK · FA	Negative	"So far, Tesla has proven, I think, [not] anything worth anything" on robotaxis — too many edge cases (phantom braking, non-ideal conditions); "Teslas are not being used in the same way Waymo's are."	7:03
Bitcoin	Bitcoin / crypto	—	Negative	Closer to the "scam" label than AI: "I don't think crypto is going to live up to all its hype… businesses don't really use it."	19:59

0:43 Selling the old house and why the portfolio isn't flooded with business income

Sold his old home ($370k→$740k) inside the two-year window to avoid ~$80k of capital-gains tax and used the gain to pay down the new house.
Qualtrim (~13,000 members, mostly $10/month) earns well, but he won't pour it all into the public portfolio: the goal is to show good investing returns, not deposits, and he wants buys to be opportunistic.

4:41 Where the extra money goes — ETFs

A couple hundred thousand dollars in ETFs, mostly SCHG, recently some VTI because it's less opinionated.

5:06 Gurus and transparency

On Chris Camillo (whom he doesn't know well): the more someone presents as a savant, "the more transparent you should be" — full positions, cost basis, gains and losses.

6:41 Uber vs Waymo and Tesla

Tesla hasn't proven its robotaxi; Waymo is the real competitor at 500k weekly paid rides, yet Uber keeps peak density even in LA. Waymo takes share at the edges; Uber wins through white space and a hybrid AV network; both can win.

9:03 Four kids is easier than one

Siblings entertain each other and older kids babysit; don't extrapolate today's struggle — kids change fast.

13:14 An ETF portfolio

Owns SCHG and ~$30–40k of VTI (~$300–400k across ETFs); unopinionated, "out of sight, out of mind" retirement money.

14:26 Alphabet — buy price and the AI moat

At ~$342 Google is at "a normal valuation"; he'd look to add around $250–260. The moat is distribution and the full stack, not a best-in-class model.

16:46 ETFs, stock picking and downturns

The worst sequence: pick stocks, internalize a market drop as personal failure, sell and move to ETFs, then miss the individual stocks' rebound. Either start with ETFs or hold through.
A 30–35% ETF core is fine; a nervous investor could go 50/50 — the "core-satellite" approach.

19:07 Is the AI infrastructure boom a scam?

No: businesses adopt AI because it's useful, not because of a sales pitch; OpenAI/Anthropic revenue proves paying demand. Crypto is closer to overhyped.
Supports US data centers — water use is "not more than a golf course" for something "a hundred times more useful to society."

24:55 Stocks he's sold and how they did

Wants every sold stock to do well — it validates the research. Salesforce ~20% above his sale; Equifax, Intuit, Booking, Apple, Chipotle all "fantastic." The current basket has done a little better than the sold one, which is the point of high-grading.

3. In plain English

A jargon-free summary of the thesis behind each substantive name — what it is and why the view is held. (Plain-language companion to the table above; renders on each ticker's consolidated page.)

UBER — Uber Technologies Positive

A member asked whether Waymo could eventually get dense enough in a city to break Carlson's Uber thesis, which rests on Uber having so many drivers nearby that a ride is always minutes away. His answer: Waymo is the only robotaxi company that has really proven itself, and it will take some business in big cities. But even in Los Angeles, where Waymo operates best, Uber is still doing well.

He sees Uber as having plenty of other places to grow and as a platform that will host many companies' self-driving cars alongside human drivers. Transportation is a huge market, so Waymo and Uber can both win, like Visa and Mastercard. The scenario that would hurt Uber is Waymo expanding everywhere with no other self-driving suppliers — he doesn't think that's likely within ten years.

GOOGL — Alphabet Neutral

Google is one of Carlson's largest holdings, but at about $342 a share he thinks it is fairly priced rather than cheap, so he isn't adding; he would consider buying more around $250–260. He agrees with a member that Google's advantage in AI is not having the single smartest model — it just needs a very good one — but owning the whole chain: its own chips, its cloud, apps billions of people already use (YouTube, Gmail, Maps) and the Android phones they use them on. That gives it many ways to make money from AI.

NVDA — NVIDIA Positive

Asked whether the AI data-center boom is a scam that companies like Nvidia are exploiting, Carlson says no. A scam sells something that doesn't work; AI is being adopted by businesses everywhere because it saves time and money, and companies keep increasing how much they use it after trying it. The clearest proof is not Nvidia's chip sales but the revenue of AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic, which comes from customers choosing to pay. He compares it to the arrival of the internet and calls AI the most useful technology he has seen since.

Summary & timestamps derived from the login-gated Qualtrim Studio video (transcript in transcript.txt) for personal study. Not investment advice. © Joseph Carlson / Qualtrim for source material.