Joseph Carlson — September 2026 Portfolio Update

Carlson estimates what each stock he owns could return per year over five years, using his guess of earnings growth and a fair price-to-earnings multiple at the end. Meta comes out on top at about 18% a year, assuming only 13% earnings growth (he expects heavy AI spending to hold profits back) and a modest 24× multiple. He calculates the stock could rise to $677 and still deliver his 15% target, which gives him a cushion if he's wrong.

The big recent news was an $18 billion settlement with 51 state attorneys general over youth social-media addiction. Paid over ten years and after taxes, he figures it costs closer to $9 billion today, and it doesn't force Meta to change how its feeds or ads work for most users. Meta is also releasing free, efficient AI models to keep AI cheap and widely available, so no single AI company can become a toll booth Meta has to pay. It is his largest allocation in a hypothetical fresh $10,000 portfolio.

His only trade last month was a small $1,000 Uber purchase that happened to land on the low. With his assumptions — 16% yearly earnings growth and a 24× multiple — he calculates about a 17.5% annual return, one of the best in his portfolio, because fear about robotaxis is holding the price down.

He contrasts two strategies. Uber doesn't build self-driving cars or delivery drones itself; it signs up the companies that do (Wayve in London, thousands of robotaxis in Europe, Zipline drones) and plugs them into its app, the way it plugs in human drivers. DoorDash is building its own drones and delivery robots. He likes both businesses, but thinks Uber is the better buy today because DoorDash's stock has already run up.

Netflix clears his 15% target (about 15.8% a year) assuming 16% growth. Its cheaper ad-supported plan is growing fast, it is signing video podcasters away from YouTube, and it might become a hub that sells other streaming services inside its app. It generates about $11 billion a year of free cash with almost no stock-based pay, which he says makes it one of the financially strongest companies anywhere — not the weak streaming business many assume.

Mastercard is one of his biggest positions and the one he assigns the highest fair multiple (31× earnings) because its payment network is so hard to copy. Rather than fear stablecoins and AI shopping agents, it is positioning to be the plumbing for both: it bought a company (likely BVNK) that converts between regular money and stablecoins, and it is defining how AI agents prove who they act for, what they're allowed to spend and how disputes work. Its expected return sits just under his 15% target.

Amazon has one of "the strongest stories" to him: its cloud unit is adding millions more Nvidia chips because demand beat expectations, drone delivery is expanding six-fold to about 500 US towns, and the Alexa+ AI assistant is spreading. Because the stock is already up this year he trimmed his expected return to about 13.5% a year — still strong for a company this large.

S&P Global (credit ratings, indexes and financial data) has lagged this year, down about 17%, mainly because of internal changes — spinning off its Mobility unit, restructuring a division and new leaders — rather than a weaker business. It is putting its data directly inside Microsoft's Copilot. He expects about 12–13% a year and prefers it to Moody's, which does similar things but costs more.

Duolingo is his only losing position. Investors worry AI chatbots will replace language apps, but the numbers he tracks are moving the right way: daily users are growing faster again, the cost of its AI conversation practice has fallen below a cent per call, and user retention is at a record 84%. Chess.com even copied its design. He calls it pass/fail — either a very large learning platform or a disappointment — so he keeps it as a smaller position.

Google is his largest holding and business news is good — its Gemini AI has passed a billion monthly users and a judge refused to force the sale of its ad-tech business. But at today's price his math gives only about 9.6% a year, below his 15% bar, so he holds it without buying more and wants a dip first.

ASML makes the only machines that can print the most advanced chips, and demand is still strong. The main risk is political: tighter US limits on what it can sell and service in China, which is a meaningful slice of sales. His problem is price — he thinks fair value is roughly $1,300–1,400 a share versus $1,800–2,000 — so it is the one great company he has trimmed (by 20%), while keeping most of the position in case momentum lasts.

Costco keeps growing steadily (August sales up almost 10%) and is even moving into Medicare plans, but investors pay a very high price for its safety. His math gives only about 5.5% a year from here, the lowest in his portfolio, so he won't buy more until the expected return is at least 10% — though he can't bring himself to sell one of his best-ever investments.

Texas Roadhouse is still winning more diners, not just raising prices, and record weekly sales per restaurant. Beef is expensive because the US cattle herd is the smallest in decades, but the company expects its food-cost inflation to ease. Diners are also shifting from fast food toward sit-down restaurants. After a big run he expects about 8.9% a year — fine, but not a buy.