Actionable insights — LIVE Discord Ask Me Anything

1:37 1. Prefer clean stories; demand KPIs for messy ones

1. For each company exposed to a new technology, list which segments it helps and which it hurts.
2. If only one direction applies, it's a clean story. If both, it's messy — decide the KPIs that would prove the net effect and how many good quarters you need.
3. Default to lower sizing on messy stories.

• A segment KPI (e.g. TurboTax units) turning while the headline still grows.

5:22 2. Check revenue, not the chart, before accepting a disruption story

1. Find the company the narrative says "should be destroyed."
2. Compare its stock move with its revenue trend over the same period.
3. If revenue still grows, the fall may be multiple compression from a high starting valuation, not disruption.

• Revenue actually decelerating toward zero growth — the point where the story becomes real.

39:38 3. Price the bear case as if it already happened

1. Value the business segment by segment (sum of parts).
2. Zero out or haircut the threatened segment.
3. If the remaining segments are worth about the market cap, the bear case is already priced in.

• Threatened segments actually shrinking vs merely fearing it.

35:42 4. Put the disruptor and incumbent on the same unit

1. Pick a single operating metric both report (trips, users, orders).
2. Convert to a vivid ratio (how long the incumbent takes to match the challenger's weekly volume).
3. Track whether the absolute gap is widening or narrowing.

• The time-to-match ratio shrinking for several quarters.

58:41 5. Diversify by risk factor, not by count

1. Hold at least ~7 positions — about 90% of single-company risk is diversified away by then.
2. Group holdings by what could hurt them (rates, regulation, consumer spending, AI disruption); avoid many names sharing one factor.
3. Weigh balance-sheet strength and business breadth; cap any one position's weight and trim if it grows too large.
4. As wealth grows, park enough in ETFs to cover living needs, then invest the rest aggressively.

• Correlated drawdowns across holdings you believed were different.

42:06 6. Judge heavy capex against how the build environment will change

1. Ask whether the inputs (land, permits, power) get easier or harder to secure over the next few years.
2. If harder, early spending buys scarce position even at the cost of near-term FCF.
3. Separate that from spending in an environment where inputs will get cheaper.

• Local moratoria or permitting slowdowns — evidence that the window is closing.