| Ticker | Name | Research | View | What he said | At |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEM | Agnico Eagle Mines | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | Down 40%, 5.9× EV/EBITDA (cheapest in 20–30 years), $6–7B FCF, $2B buyback — the Einhorn setup. Risk/reward ~10–15% down vs 200% up; gold at $6,500 a year out could put it up 100%. | 20:21 |
| GDX | VanEck Gold Miners ETF | QT · SA · STK | Positive | Exited in Q1, now in his trade alerts buying gold miners back in thirds and quarters into the hot-money flush — "be very careful on entry," looking to add on further weakness ("only monkeys pick bottoms"). | 23:16 |
| SRUUF | Sprott Physical Uranium Trust | QT · SA | Positive | Sold some into the Q1 move, buying back down here. The commodity's underperformance (−5% YTD vs Cameco +4%) "gets me excited"; contract buyers must step up within 12–18 months — "one of the most attractive entry points for the commodity that I've ever seen." | 49:36 |
| SLB | Schlumberger (SLB) | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | "The artificial intelligence potential of SLB is literally one of the most exciting trades or investments I can think of in the market today" — oil services control valuable assets and are outperforming the S&P. | 31:40 |
| WFRD | Weatherford International | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | "The Weatherfords of the world" — value names inside the oil-services outperformance; they control a lot of valuable assets. | 31:40 |
| TOU | Tourmaline Oil | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | Trapped Canadian gas as "the next artificial intelligence play": move data centers to the gas (private turbines), in discussion with hyperscalers now; Hormuz makes North-American gas more valuable. "One of the best trades over the next 5–10 years" — downside 15–20%, upside 200%. | 41:44 |
| ISRG | Intuitive Surgical | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | AI-medical family offices "love the surgicals" — Intuitive has the best data (the Tesla-road-data analogy). Unloved while everyone's in chips; "if you buy Intuitive Surgical now on the 200-day moving average that's a really screaming buy" — AI on its data turns it into "an absolute profit beast." | 40:02 |
| BAX | Baxter International | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | Named alongside Intuitive ("the Baxters") as the unloved healthcare names the AI-medical family offices love for their data. | 39:09 |
| IVOL | Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility & Inflation Hedge ETF | QT · SA · STK | Positive | His vehicle for the 2s30s steepener (long 2-year / short 30-year): the curve flattening is "a mirage" — the Fed can't hike with $1.1T of interest on the debt, so the curve steepens a lot over the next year. Nancy Davis's "battered" IVOL plays it. | 26:35 |
| BRK.B | Berkshire Hathaway | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | "Buffett, Berkshire big outperformance the last week" — value companies that own hard-asset businesses are the destination of the colossal growth→value move he sees beginning. | 30:17 |
| OXY | Occidental Petroleum | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | "The Occidental Petroleums of the world" — the hard-asset holdings inside Berkshire-style value that the rotation favors (oil & gas, natural gas, materials). | 30:17 |
| XLV | Health Care Select Sector SPDR | QT · SA · STK | Positive | The instrument for Larry's healthcare call (host Patrick's trade-of-the-week construction): long XLV ~$152.85 with an Aug 145/165 collar — Larry sees the momentum→healthcare turn as "a big winner the second half of the year." | 53:56 |
| URNM | Sprott Uranium Miners ETF | QT · SA · STK | Neutral | "I want to buy the URNM or the NUKZ… on a little bit more pain" like April–May 2025 — be in the commodity when you expect volatility, rotate into the miner ETFs during the big drawdown. | 45:59 |
| NUKZ | Range Nuclear Renaissance ETF | QT · SA · STK | Neutral | The other miner/nuclear ETF he wants to buy — but only "on a little bit more pain"; high-beta uranium equities get hammered harder than the commodity in a market shock. | 45:59 |
| CCJ | Cameco | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | Still up 4% YTD while the commodity is down ~5–6% — that relative richness is why he prefers the commodity; producers like Cameco "tend to overpromise on production" (which is itself bullish for the price). | 45:59 |
| NXE | NexGen Energy | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | Family offices close to uranium think NexGen's mine timeline is exaggerated by a year or two — a supply problem that tightens the 2027–29 deficit (bullish the commodity, not the equity). | 46:56 |
| DNN | Denison Mines | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | Grouped with "the nextgens, the camos, the Dennis" — producers that tend to overpromise on production timelines. | 46:56 |
| META | Meta Platforms | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | The lockup precedent: Facebook's 2012 IPO ($100B, <1% of GDP) had a 40–50% first-year drawdown once the unlocks hit — SpaceX is ~11–12× that size with a more aggressive unlock schedule. | 9:06 |
| MSFT | Microsoft | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | "In the old days, Microsoft came public at less than a billion dollars" — vs companies now coming public at $1.8T, "a colossal failure of common sense." | 37:52 |
| TSLA | Tesla | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | The data-moat analogy for Intuitive Surgical: like Tesla's road data, Intuitive's surgical-robotics data makes it an AI beneficiary. (Also: Tesla came public at just a $2B valuation.) | 39:39 |
| LULU | Lululemon | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | Index-gaming exhibit: with ~60–65% of capital passive, "the in crowd" front-runs S&P 500 inclusions like Lululemon's — the same mechanism that lets mega-IPOs be force-fed to retail. | 36:55 |
| GOOGL | Alphabet | QT · SA · STK · FA | Negative | Last week's ~$80B secondary share offering is part of the supply wall — "you got Google dumping stock" alongside Elon and the CFOs, all at the same time. | 7:39 |
| SPCX | SpaceX | QT · SA · STK · FA | Negative | A ~$2T IPO ≈ 6% of US GDP (Facebook 2012 was <1%) with an $80B raise and a lockup "much more aggressive than previous IPOs." Coming public this late in the maturity cycle makes the IPO "very, very unattractive" — "you're going to probably be able to buy SpaceX 50% off sometime in the first year." | 9:47 |
| Anthropic | Anthropic (private) | — | Negative | Next in the IPO queue after SpaceX — part of the ~$200–250B of immediate raises (and ~$3T of eventual unlocks) the market must absorb by selling everything else. | 8:08 |
| OpenAI | OpenAI (private) | — | Negative | Also coming public into the same window — the smartest people in AI are "selling their equity to bag holders as fast as they can" (Erik's framing, which Larry endorses). | 8:08 |
| HD | Home Depot | QT · SA · STK · FA | Negative | Almost 30% off, with ~50% of its suppliers down 20–40% — the bottom 60% of consumers are in real pain while tech parties like 1999. | 16:38 |
| LOW | Lowe's | QT · SA · STK · FA | Negative | Among the big consumer brands ~19–20% off — the two-consumer divergence. | 16:38 |
| MCD | McDonald's | QT · SA · STK · FA | Negative | With restaurants "getting really hammered," McDonald's ~20% off — proof growth expectations for the real economy are coming down even as inflation stays sticky. | 16:38 |
| HOG | Harley-Davidson | QT · SA · STK · FA | Negative | "The McDonald's, the Home Depots, the Harley-Davidsons are all off 20%, in some cases more" — the consumer flush that killed the steepener trade. | 25:04 |
"View" is Larry McDonald's stance in this conversation (Positive / Neutral / Negative), not a price rating — except XLV, which is host Patrick Ceresna's trade-of-the-week expression of Larry's healthcare-rotation call. Research links: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis (omitted where no clean page exists). Private companies have no ticker.
A jargon-free summary of the thesis behind each pick — what it actually is and why he holds that view. (Plain-language companion to the table above; renders on each ticker's consolidated page.)
Agnico Eagle is a big, well-run gold miner that just got marked down 40% — not because the business broke, but because "tourist" money that piled into gold miners got flushed out when rate-cut hopes turned into rate-hike fears and emerging-market central banks sold gold to raise cash. The company still throws off $6–7 billion a year in free cash (money left after running the mines) and is buying back $2 billion of its own stock — the exact setup hedge-fund manager David Einhorn taught him to look for.
His math: maybe 10–15% more downside against ~200% upside. With consumers wounded, the Fed can't really raise rates even as inflation sticks — slow growth plus high inflation is rocket fuel for gold, which he sees at $6,500 an ounce a year out. That could roughly double the stock.
GDX is a basket of gold-mining stocks. His trade-alert service exited it in the first quarter near the highs and is now buying back — but deliberately slowly, in thirds and quarters, because the Hormuz crisis isn't over and the miners could still fall further. The discipline: "only monkeys pick bottoms," so his capitulation model tells him when the weak hands have been flushed and he scales in on each leg down rather than calling the low.
This fund holds physical uranium — you own the metal itself, not a mining company. Right now the metal is down ~5% on the year while miner Cameco is still up 4%, and that gap is exactly what excites him: in a market shock the high-beta mining stocks fall much harder than the commodity, so he wants to sit in the metal first and switch into miners only after they get washed out.
The bigger story: a 2027–29 supply/demand squeeze. Producers chronically overpromise on new production, demand is ramping (a US national-security nuclear push, friendlier Germany and Japan), and the utilities who buy uranium on long-term contracts have been asleep for a decade and are now "getting nervous behind the scenes." Since uranium has no real spot or futures market, when those contract buyers finally step up over the next 12–18 months, the price has to do the adjusting. He sold some strength in Q1 and is buying this dip — "one of the most attractive entry points for the commodity that I've ever seen."
Schlumberger is the world's biggest oil-services company — the firms that do the drilling and well work for oil producers. His point is that AI's winners won't all be chipmakers: SLB sits on enormous amounts of subsurface and drilling data, and applying AI to that is "literally one of the most exciting trades or investments I can think of in the market today." The sector is full of cheap value names already outperforming the S&P while everyone crowds into semiconductors.
Weatherford is another oil-services company — "the Weatherfords of the world" are his shorthand for the cheap, asset-rich value names in that sector. They control real, valuable equipment and expertise, and the group has been beating the index all year as money rotates from paper assets to hard ones.
Tourmaline is Canada's largest natural-gas producer, sitting on "trapped" gas — gas that's cheap because there aren't enough pipelines to take it anywhere. His twist: instead of moving the gas to the customer, move the customer to the gas. With 800–1,000 data centers and ~$5 trillion of spending coming and towns increasingly refusing them ("not in my backyard"), AI companies can build next to the stranded gas and power themselves with private turbines — and he says Tourmaline is talking with the hyperscalers (the giant cloud companies) right now.
Two tailwinds: Canada's Carney government is friendlier to this kind of investment, and the Hormuz crisis has stranded Middle-East LNG, making North-American gas structurally more valuable to world buyers. He frames it as 15–20% downside versus ~200% upside over 5–10 years.
Intuitive Surgical makes the da Vinci surgical robots. The insight comes from billionaire family offices specializing in AI medicine: Intuitive owns the world's best surgical data — like Tesla's library of road data, every robotic operation adds to a dataset nobody else has, and robotics already lets surgeons operate on patients in other countries. Feed AI that data and the company becomes "an absolute profit beast" over the next 5–10 years.
Meanwhile the stock is unloved — healthcare has been sold down to make room for tech and the quants are short the whole sector — so buying it here on its 200-day moving average is, to him, "a really screaming buy."
Baxter makes hospital and medical products. It gets a briefer mention — "the Baxters" — as part of the same idea: unloved healthcare companies sitting on valuable medical data that AI can monetize, which the specialist family offices say they love while everyone else crowds into chips.
IVOL is an ETF (run by Nancy Davis) that profits when the gap between short-term and long-term interest rates widens — a "steepener." The market is currently pricing the opposite, because the Hormuz inflation shock has traders reflexively betting the Fed will hike. He calls that "a mirage": with interest on the national debt now $1.1 trillion a year (versus $300 billion before the last hiking cycle) and the consumer already wounded, the Fed simply can't hike much. Short rates stay anchored while long rates rise with inflation — the curve steepens "a lot over the next year," and the beaten-down IVOL is his retail-accessible way to own that view.
XLV is the S&P 500 healthcare-sector ETF. Larry's argument: healthcare has shrunk from 16% to 8% of the S&P even as the boomer population ages, because managers sold it to fund tech buys and momentum quants shorted it. He expects a "huge turn" out of semiconductors into healthcare around quarter-end — "a big winner the second half of the year."
Host Patrick Ceresna turned that call into the show's trade of the week: own XLV (~$153) and put a "collar" around it — buy an August $145 put (the right to sell at 145, capping your loss) and pay for it by selling an August $165 call (giving away gains above 165). Defined risk of about $8.50 a share against about $11.50 of upside while the rotation plays out.
URNM holds the uranium mining stocks. He wants to own it — but not yet. Uranium equities are a famously volatile, retail-heavy sector that falls 30–45% in broad market shocks (it happened in the 2025 trade war and the 2024 yen-carry blowup). His sequencing: hold the physical-uranium trust now, and rotate into the miner ETFs "on a little bit more pain" — during the big washout he expects.
NUKZ is the broader "all things nuclear" ETF (reactor builders, fuel, infrastructure) he has championed before. Same verdict as URNM this week: the long-term story is intact, but these high-beta stocks get hammered harder than the commodity in a sell-off, so he's waiting to buy the dip rather than chasing here.
Cameco is the biggest Western uranium miner — and it's still up 4% this year while the metal itself is down ~5%. To him that relative richness is the warning: the equity hasn't yet priced the volatility he expects, and producers like Cameco "tend to overpromise on production" anyway. Ironically those production misses tighten supply further — bullish for the uranium price he owns, not necessarily the miner.
NexGen is developing the giant Canadian uranium mine the world's supply forecasts lean on. Family offices close to the sector told him the company is probably overstating its timeline by a year or two. That delay is a supply problem for the world — which supports the uranium price — but it's a reason to be wary of the stock itself.
Google's parent sold roughly $80 billion of new shares last week to fund its AI buildout. In Larry's supply-and-demand framing, that's $80 billion of fresh stock the market must digest at the same moment as the SpaceX/Anthropic/OpenAI IPO wave — "you got Google dumping stock" right alongside Elon and the convertible-issuing CFOs. Too many sellers at once.
SpaceX is coming public at roughly $2 trillion — about 6% of US GDP, versus less than 1% for Facebook's then-record 2012 IPO. Worse, its lockup (the period insiders must wait before selling) is "much more aggressive than previous IPOs," and Facebook fell 40–50% in its first year once insiders could sell. Companies used to go public early (Tesla at $2B, Microsoft under $1B) and let public investors ride the growth; SpaceX arrives fully ripened, so the IPO is "very, very unattractive" — he thinks you'll get to buy it ~50% cheaper within a year.
Anthropic (the maker of Claude) is next in the IPO queue. The issue isn't the company — it's the arithmetic: with SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI together, roughly $200–250 billion must be raised immediately, and about $3 trillion of insider shares unlock within 6–12 months after. Every dollar that buys these IPOs is a dollar sold out of something else in the market.
OpenAI is the third mega-listing in the wave. The tell, in Erik and Larry's shared framing: the smartest people in AI — the very founders who built it — are all choosing this exact moment to sell their private equity to public-market "bag holders," just as tech insiders did in 1999–2000. When the smart money sells in size, take the hint.
Home Depot is down almost 30%, and by his Bloomberg screen about half its suppliers are down 20–40%. It's his evidence that the bottom 60% of consumers — who are now only 10–15% of total consumption — are in real pain from sticky inflation, even while the tech side of the market parties.
McDonald's, with Lowe's and Harley-Davidson, is off roughly 20% — even cheap-eats brands are buckling. The squeeze on ordinary households is why growth expectations are falling at the same time inflation is re-accelerating: the stagflation mix that traps the Fed and powers his hard-asset rotation.
Summary & timestamps derived from the public YouTube video (transcript in transcript.txt) for personal study. Not investment advice. © MacroVoices / Fourth Turning Capital Management for source material.