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Leon Shaulov — Intelligence as Infrastructure: How AI Is Rewiring the Economy

"You've gone from one spender to multiple spenders, all of which underspent… the estimates are like 50 to 70% too low. I'm guessing the next 50 to 100 is up."
2026-MAY-12 · Sohn Investment Conference 2026 (New York) — panel with Alex Sacerdote (Whale Rock), mod. Leslie Picker · guest Leon Shaulov (Maplelane Capital) · ~24 min · ▶ Watch · transcript · actionable insights
One-line take: Shaulov frames AI through inflation: long-term it's "highly deflationary" ("a lot more for a lot less"), but near-term it's inflationary — CPU/memory/infrastructure input costs are skyrocketing and the labor market stays robust (software-engineer hiring +18% in a month). The investable edge is the semiconductor up-cycle: after a decade of capex discipline, you've gone "from one spender" (Taiwan Semi, which "underspent significantly") "to multiple spenders, all of which underspent" (Intel's foundry "picking up customers," Samsung). Forward-capex indicators flash, wafer-fab equipment (WFE) heads from ~$120-130B toward ~$300B, and because customers run 70-80% margins the suppliers have pricing power — "the estimates are 50 to 70% too low," and LTAs make the names less cyclical. His picks: Lam Research (his favorite, memory-levered), the memory complex (Micron, SK Hynix, SanDisk — a NAND cycle "we haven't talked about in a decade"), and analog (Texas Instruments, Renesas). (Co-panelist Alex Sacerdote's distinct foundational-model + hardware picks — Google, TTMI, DataDog — are archived separately under alex-sacerdote.)

1. Stocks & names mentioned

Shaulov is a semiconductor-cycle long/short investor — stance below reflects how each name was framed in this panel, not a price target. Research legend: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis. Only Shaulov's own names are listed here. Ordered Positive → Neutral.

TickerNameResearchViewWhat he saidAt
LRCXLam ResearchQT · SA · STK · FAPositive"Lam Research happens to be my favorite" — high exposure to memory, where the market's still skeptical after years of under-spending; a "middle of 27, 28 story" with "a boom in spending." The street may be "50 to 70% too low"; he sees ~$55B revenue and margins "significantly higher."22:42
TXNTexas InstrumentsQT · SA · STK · FAPositive"I think Texas Instruments is very good." Likes the analog sector — "a decent chance this could look like memory from a pricing standpoint" given how tight things are; favours names with an "AI power angle."23:38
RNECYRenesas ElectronicsSAPositive"I think Renesas in Asia is quite interesting" — part of his tight-analog call; an AI-power-angle name with "significant upside" if you find the right ones.23:45
MUMicron TechnologyQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveOne of the memory names in the up-cycle — "what's the last time we talked about a NAND cycle? Must be a decade ago." The memory guys run ~80% margins and are signing long-term agreements "right and left," de-risking the cycle.11:43
HXSCLSK HynixSAPositiveNamed with Micron and SanDisk as the memory complex driving the cycle — ~80% margins, "absolutely enormous" profitability, with forward-capex indicators flashing.11:43
SNDKSanDiskQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveThe pure-NAND name in his memory trio — the powerful NAND cycle "we haven't talked about in a decade," now highly profitable and de-risked by LTAs.11:43
TSMTaiwan SemiconductorQT · SA · STK · FANeutralThe lone foundry spender for a decade that "underspent significantly" and "made a mistake… they will have to rectify." High-margin (~70%) but framed as the customer whose under-investment + new competition sets up the multi-spender equipment boom, not a single-name buy.10:25
INTCIntelQT · SA · STK · FANeutral"A company that was dead for years… the foundry business is starting to pick up customers" — cited as evidence for the multi-spender thesis (more foundry spenders → more equipment demand) rather than pitched as a buy.12:07
SSNLFSamsung ElectronicsSANeutralMentioned with Intel as the foundry "announcements" reshaping competition — part of the "multiple spenders" picture pressuring Taiwan Semi, not a standalone call.11:24

2. Talking points

0:44 AI through the lens of inflation — deflationary long-term

1:27 But near-term it's inflationary — input costs + robust labor

3:00 Sticky inflation first, then deflation — the Fed's bind

10:11 Semis have run hard — expect some accidents

11:04 A decade of discipline — one spender, who underspent

11:43 The memory complex — a NAND cycle "a decade" in coming

12:07 Intel's foundry returns — from one spender to many

12:25 WFE to ~$300B — and pricing power on top

13:12 Less cyclical — LTAs, balance sheets, the re-rate

22:42 Pick — Lam Research (the memory-levered favorite)

23:15 Analog — Texas Instruments, Renesas, the "AI power angle"

3. In plain English

A jargon-free summary of the thesis behind each name — what it actually is and why he holds that view. (Plain-language companion to the table above; renders on each ticker's consolidated page.)

LRCX — Lam Research Positive

Lam Research makes the machines that chip factories use to manufacture memory chips (it's a "semiconductor equipment" or WFE — wafer-fab-equipment — company). It's Shaulov's favorite idea. His logic: for years memory makers barely invested in new capacity, so the market is skeptical that big orders are coming.

He thinks that's wrong — a wave of memory spending is coming around 2027-2028, and because Lam is heavily tied to memory, its sales and profits should jump well past what Wall Street expects (he says estimates are 50-70% too low, with revenue around $55 billion and fatter margins). When the chipmakers finally spend, the toolmaker gets paid first.

TXN — Texas Instruments Positive

Texas Instruments is the largest maker of "analog" chips — the unglamorous components that handle real-world signals like power, sound, and temperature in virtually every electronic device. Shaulov calls it "very good" and thinks the whole analog sector is interesting because supply is tight.

His key idea: analog pricing "could look like memory" — meaning that as shortages bite, prices (and profits) could rise sharply the way they do in a memory up-cycle. He especially likes analog names with an "AI power angle" — those selling into the power-hungry AI data-center buildout.

RNECY — Renesas Electronics Positive

Renesas is a large Japanese analog and microcontroller chipmaker (this RNECY ticker is its U.S. over-the-counter listing). Shaulov calls it "quite interesting" as part of his bullish view on tight analog supply.

It's the same thesis as Texas Instruments — analog chips are scarce, pricing could firm up like memory, and names plugged into AI power demand have "significant upside."

MU — Micron Technology Positive

Micron makes memory chips — both DRAM (the fast working memory in computers and AI servers) and NAND flash (storage). Shaulov groups it with SK Hynix and SanDisk as the memory names riding a cycle he says we "haven't talked about in a decade."

What makes it attractive now: these companies are earning roughly 80% gross margins, and they're locking customers into long-term supply agreements (LTAs). Those contracts give them visibility and make the business less boom-and-bust than memory has historically been — which could earn the stocks a higher valuation.

HXSCL — SK Hynix Positive

SK Hynix is the big Korean memory maker (this HXSCL ticker is its U.S. over-the-counter listing) and a leader in the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) that AI chips need. Shaulov names it alongside Micron and SanDisk as the memory complex powering the up-cycle.

The appeal is the same: extraordinary profitability (around 80% margins) and a NAND/DRAM cycle that's finally turning after years of underinvestment, with customer profitability signaling that heavy spending lies ahead.

SNDK — SanDisk Positive

SanDisk is a pure NAND-flash memory maker (the chips used for storage in phones, laptops, and data centers); it returned to the public market in 2025 as a stand-alone company. Shaulov uses it as the cleanest way to play the NAND cycle he says has been dormant "for a decade."

His view is that NAND is entering a powerful, highly profitable upturn, de-risked by long-term supply agreements — the kind of neglected cycle where the move can be large because so few investors are positioned for it.

TSM — Taiwan Semiconductor Neutral

TSMC is the world's dominant contract chip manufacturer ("foundry") — it makes the advanced chips designed by Nvidia, Apple, and others. In Shaulov's story it's less a buy than the setup for his real trade. For a decade it was essentially the only big spender on new capacity, and he argues even it "underspent significantly" — "made a mistake" it will have to fix.

That under-investment, plus new foundry competition from Intel and Samsung, is exactly what creates his thesis: multiple chipmakers all needing to spend at once, which is great for the equipment suppliers. TSMC's ~70% margins show how much room there is to spend.


Summary & timestamps derived from the public YouTube video (transcript in transcript.txt) for personal study. Not investment advice. © Sohn Conference Foundation / CNBC for source material.