China — demographic & property bust (new) Negative — net fixed investment −9.5% YoY, 20–30 years of housing inventory, and no appetite for the consumption pivot

2026-AUG-26 (Dowd/Phinance, WTFinance): post-GFC China overbuilt far beyond what its population could absorb even though the 2015 demographic plateau was simple arithmetic; decline began in 2020 and ~150 million people are aging out of prime working age. The property crisis started in 2021 (Evergrande); new permits are down ~70% and 20–30 years of housing inventory sits unsold, with construction only rolling over now as long-life projects complete. Net fixed investment turned negative year-over-year at end-2025, bounced on Q1 stimulus, and is back at new lows — the latest month at −9.5% YoY. Internal consumption is "falling off a cliff" because there is no social safety net, and building one means the top sharing power in a mercantilist system: "there doesn't seem to be an appetite to do that." The escape valve is export dumping — hence the trade wars — but "Japan is 1/10 the size of China… the world cannot accommodate China trying to do the Japan model," so a recession collapses those exports into a feedback loop. Political constraint: "7 million card-carrying members of the CCP controlling billions — they fear their own people," so employment must be kept up at any cost.