Coal — the capital-starved seaborne market (new) Positive ▲ — no capital, no new supply, and two dated catalysts into winter

(2026-SEP-03, Adam Rozencwajg / Goehring & Rozencwajg, Investing News) "The other thing that people don't look at at all is the global coal industry. It's obviously a four-letter word, completely starved for capital, no one cares" — which is the setup: an industry that cannot raise money cannot add supply, so any demand increment goes straight to price. Two dated catalysts sit in front of it. Europe "seems very unlikely to be meeting their gas requirements going into the winter," which would repeat the 2022 playbook when "European coal burn rose that year to try to save and ration the more scarce and precious gas." And Indonesia — which has been "what the US has been… to oil and natural gas" for coal, the swing exporter of the last 10–15 years — is "looking to ban or severely limit the amount of coal exports," which "would be a big blow to the seaborne market and tighten the market a lot." He names no coal security. 2026-SEP-09 (David Hay / Haymaker): China is not choosing between baseload options — alongside its 36-reactor nuclear build it is "dramatically ramping up coal-fired plants with more under development than the rest of the world combined," while US coal generation has fallen from a ~2,000 bkWh peak in 2007 to roughly 650 (EIA, preliminary 2025).