Great migration Hard assets ▲

Capital rotating out of mega-cap tech (~$31T Nasdaq) into energy & commodities (~$3T); S&P energy weight 3% heading to 10–15%. Currie (Jun 17): the same "revenge of the old economy" rotation — a decade of under-investment (sector capex ~$400B/yr vs the ~$750B needed; reserves and inventories both depleting) means trillions must rotate out of the cash-burning new economy into under-supplied molecules (oil/gas) and atoms (metals); "own the beta," and the dividends are "the real yield" — cash today as a diversification + income hedge if higher inflation/rates hit tech. Robotti (RWH046, 2024-JUN-22): frames it as the "metamorphosis of the old economy" — capital-deprived, consolidated, restructured cyclical/commodity industrials (steel, cement, building products, lumber, energy services) whose macro backdrop has flipped from disadvantaged to advantaged; "a butterfly today, not a caterpillar," yet still priced as the caterpillar. 2026-AUG-05 (Pomboy): The "tub" framework: a disinflationary economy leaves overflow liquidity for financial assets; an inflationary one siphons the marginal dollar back into running the economy, so commodities/hard assets outperform paper — reinforced by supply (hard assets "can't be manufactured out of thin air" vs hyper-scale paper issuance, stocks and bonds alike). Tavi Costa's commodities-vs-S&P ratio still sits at secular lows; she says "absolutely" to the reversal, and you can own the AI boom's inputs (energy, copper) instead of its paper — her own book: long gold, added energy, dry powder in T-bills. 2026-JUN-16 (McDonald, historical): Reiterated the 1968–81 frame ($17T of fiscal + monetary since 2020, $5–6T of data-center capex through 2030): energy, materials and industrials go from 14–15% of the index to 30–40% over 5–10 years while the S&P is likely unchanged for 5–10 years (2000–2010 precedent); already visible — industrials beating the Qs since October, copper names "destroying Mag 7," OIH +50% YTD. Hay (Aug 21): the YCC/debasement trigger converted into an allocation rule that reaches past the crowded expression — "precious metals are the obvious beneficiary, but industrial metals also benefit as hard assets, often with highly favorable supply-demand characteristics of their own" — favouring assets that are simultaneously quasi-monetary and industrially scarce (palladium as "a special case… both a quasi-monetary asset (PGM) and… industrial supply-demand dynamics that are separately compelling"). (David Hay / Haymaker, 2026-aug-21.) 2026-SEP-08 (Larry McDonald, Julia La Roche): still max long the hard-asset trade — coal up 32%, copper names up 82%, gold miners up 50% over the year, Schlumberger and the oil services "phenomenal" over the next five years — but the posture has changed: "now you want to protect those gains." The hedge is deliberately placed on the crowded, expensive part of the market (one-year puts on XLF/BAC, VIXY as a September–October rental) rather than by trimming the hard-asset winners.