US midterms — the November risk window (new) Borrowed calm ◆ — invested through October, cut risk after November

AUG-16 (Jay Singh, SSR). A dated de-risking plan published ten weeks in advance, built by separating the reason a risk is quiet from the risk itself. "Until midterm elections or until we see some sort of an escalation in the war with Iran, I do think that the market volatility will be a little bit lower, until we get to October, November. Now, after November, I plan to take some risk lower. And the reason why I'm telling you guys that early" is the diagnosis: "the President is only backing off on the Iran war because of a lack of munitions and because he doesn't want the war to escalate before the midterm elections. I think after that, geopolitical risks could escalate quite aggressively… especially if he loses the House, I think that there could be some retaliation." The base rates size it as a hedging problem rather than a selling one: since 1990, from end-July through November 9 (covering the reaction to all midterm results), midterm years return a median +0.9% with gains 56% of the time but a median peak loss of ~6.2%, against +2.7%, gains 59% of the time and a median peak loss of only 3.5% in non-midterm years — and Dan Niles adds that "with the momentum seen by the socialists, which are not business friendly, I see more risk than the normal." The prescription is therefore hedges added on strength plus tighter selectivity, not an exit: "during midterm years such as 1990, the S&P 500 has gained about 4.2% to its peak before giving some of that back closer to the election… he would add some hedges back on further market gains and get more selective." Singh's own version: "going into the midterm elections, October, you should cut risk." Two adjacent policy tails: Trump is weighing a capital-gains tax cut with inflation indexing plus exemptions for home sales under $2M ahead of the vote ("there has not been a major US capital gains tax change since 2003"), and the Iran war "has spiked the price of oil and gas and put pressure on Trump's Republican Party heading into midterm elections." 2026-AUG-17 — Jay Singh (David Lin Report) names three things that kill the spree: a 10-yr spike, an inflation print forcing a hike, a major war re-escalation. Two are temporarily off (Oman/Iran side deal; CPI/PPI cool), giving "a short-term type of Goldilocks environment" into November — after which "our president is not really going to hold back… we might see a re-escalation in Iran, we might see new tariffs, because at that point he'll have really nothing to lose." Pre-committed: "I do plan to take some chips off the table ahead of November." 2026-AUG-19 — Halftime (Terranova): The policy put now has a stated shape and a stated calendar. On yields: "not surprising to see the yield curve control that's put into place. It'll be 60 days, early September right up to the midterm election. That's going to hopefully anchor the long end." And the same incentive is extended to oil: the administration is "paying attention to oil… do I think in the last two weeks of October oil is going to be approaching $90 to $100? No, I absolutely don't." Treat long yields and crude as bounded through early November, and mark the window's close as a scheduled re-underwriting date. 2026-AUG-26/27: Rule: the long-end intervention is dated to the electoral calendar — the signal savers received (“the US midterm elections… are far more important than the sanctity of the dollar”) “was all investors needed to hear to bid the gold price up from $4,000 to $4,800.” (Rick Rule, David Lin Report 2026-AUG-26) Every: the midterms are the explicit gate on renewed US military action against Iran — and the reason Iran has an incentive to pre-empt. (Michael Every, Thoughtful Money 2026-AUG-27) 2026-AUG-23 — Jay Singh (SSR call, 2026-AUG-23): the risk window is now framed by trade as well as war — "right after we see this November midterm elections, you better believe we're going to have even more trade wars," with tariffs and oil prices "being a risk going into midterm elections." UBS names the September FOMC and the midterms as the two risks whose pricing has risen and suggests selling VIX October puts to buy November puts into a seasonally volatile, liquidity-deficient stretch. John Polomny (AIA Weekly Report, 2026-AUG-29) adds a geopolitical version of the borrowed-calm read: the Iran war is "the main culprit for this high inflation" and "could be easily ended tomorrow," so "you're going to see things calm down as we coast into the midterm elections. Then when the political pressure is off, reignite the war with Iran" — it does not end "until there's a final victor… someone will be the hegemon in the Middle East." The domestic corollary is the same borrowed-time logic on the farm side, where a populist beef-import decision ahead of "a stupid election coming up that you're going to lose" suppresses the price signal ranchers need. 2026-AUG-30 (Jay Singh, SSR call): the window narrowed and the risk moved forward. "Earnings have been tremendous this year. What can derail them? Everyone's focused on Jackson Hole, which ended up being hawkish, but the real risk is geopolitical escalation after the November elections, which could force Warsh and crew to raise rates in December. Trump can't contain himself already with Canada, Iran — and imagine what comes after November." He is repeatedly baffled by the sequencing: "it's surprising to me that the US continues to do this bombing right ahead of midterm elections… why they would continue this war going into midterm elections with approval ratings the lowest this year doesn't make much logical sense. There should be either a moratorium or some sort of temporary resolution until midterms are over." His four reasons against a September hike include that "September has the poorest seasonality of all months" and "there's even worse seasonality than normal during midterm election years," plus "recent bipartisan pushback against data center expansion, one of the few things both sides seem to agree on." 2026-SEP-01 (Halftime): Terranova puts a date on the data-center political overhang — it "goes away at midnight on November 4th" when campaign season ends and the question becomes whether legislation actually reaches the president's desk. Wapner and Morgan Stanley both dissent. Snipe's seasonal counterpoint: five of the ten best Septembers since 1950 came off strength into September, and in midterm years. (CNBC Halftime, 2026-SEP-01) 2026-AUG-28 — Doomberg (the counterparty's read of the cycle): "do you cut a deal with Trump now, who is at least on the surface a wounded political entity when the Democrats look set to regain at least some of the levers of power? Do you wait?" China's and Iran's political cycles are much longer than the US two-year electoral cycle — opponents "bide their time, call their shots, move when it's to their advantage, pause when it's not." (Doomberg — What the Finance, 2026-AUG-28) 2026-SEP-01 (Sonders/Schwab, Master Investor): the market does care — the midterm year is "the worst year overall on average for the four-year election cycle," with volatility picking up around the summer and the lead-in and a tendency (air quotes) to rally afterwards. Schwab's Washington team under Mike Townsend puts the odds at ~75% the House turns and 40–45% the Senate turns. Consequences are narrow: essentially no chance of unwinding the one-big-beautiful-bill or the 2017 tax cuts, so no imminent tax-policy shock — but investigations pick up and fewer executive orders get made. A House flip should surprise nobody: "what rock have you been living under?" 2026-AUG-28 (McCracken, Value Hive): a mechanism by which the midterms are an oil event. "The only reason oil is not 200 is China. They cut their imports by 5 million barrels a day… China was the single largest SPR player." Unwind that — "they could just be waiting for October 1st and suddenly they pick up the phone and buy every tanker on Earth" — "and oil spikes to 200, and gas and diesel follow immediately, and Trump loses midterms." Conclusion: "Trump is actually in a position now where China controls the oil price 100%," with China, Iran and Russia plausibly sharing that interest. A concrete, dateable trigger to layer onto the existing borrowed-calm framing. (2026-SEP-03, Dan Niles, Excess Returns) He stacks four independent base rates rather than arguing one factor. Since 1957 "September is the only month of the entire year that on average is down" and the only one more likely down than up; midterm years show a 10% peak-to-trough loss from July 31st to November 9th since 1990, against 5% otherwise; a September 16th hike; and Iranian "flare-ups right up until the midterms" on 1980-hostage logic — "if you end up with a change in the political climate, that's much better for Iran." "It's not any one of those things. But you put them all together with the valuations where they are." 2026-SEP-07 (Jay Singh): JPMorgan and Citadel both advising a near-term de-risk — “JP Morgan is cautious for three weeks,” Citadel's Scott Rubner “more constructive by mid-October” — into the worst seasonal month of a midterm year, with earnings season over, systematic exposure rebuilt and “upside catalysts becoming less obvious.” Retail is the incremental buyer: $250m of NVDA in one day and more than $2.5bn across 15 consecutive sessions. Markets now expect a Democratic sweep of both chambers; Singh still expects “only the House.” 2026-SEP-08 (Larry McDonald, Julia La Roche): "the next like 6 months are pretty dangerous" — fiscal support is being engineered to reach the midterms and then given away. The tail he flags is composition, not turnout: three to five DSA House seats is noise, but 25–30 House seats plus one or two Senate seats "would really unwind the long end," on spending more aggressive than Trump's plus property-side taxation. His historical counterweight: at this point in 1992 Bill Clinton was not yet on the radar, so expect a centrist to emerge late. 2026-SEP-09 (Peter Grandich): the last 17 midterms produced at minimum a large single-digit equity decline, some near 20%, and midterms are historically bad for the sitting president. Reuters finds no midterm premium in the VIX curve (VIX ~15) despite an average 17% drawdown in each month of the last 13. He expects tariff/geopolitical escalation to peak into election day, and that a House loss ends the presidency within six months. Lundin (2026-SEP-10): there is no resolve on either side of the aisle to cut spending. The administration's pre-midterm promises, including a $5,000 payment per taxpayer if Republicans win the House and Senate, accelerate a deficit that is already steepening. Silly season is back, and he reads it as bullish for gold. McGlone (2026-SEP-10): a "very contentious midterm election year" in volatility season — the last two midterm years (2018, 2022) were down for S&P total return. Trump's $5,000-per-adult pledge if Republicans hold both chambers is "a classic sign of severe desperation"; he expects a sweep against Republicans, and "midterms can be a good trigger" for risk-asset reversion. Lebowitz (Sep 10): a likely Democratic House, and possibly Senate, could limit spending but brings dysfunction. It cuts both ways and isn't yet a bond-yield excuse, though it 'probably will be a narrative at some point.' 2026-SEP-02 Pomboy: 'zero chance' of a hands-off market cleansing before November 3 — Venezuela oil, beef imports and Treasury buybacks are 'desperate attempts' to win the affordability argument, 'whatever it takes before the midterms' being her operating framework; and 2028 is a binary for the whole energy-and-intervention regime. Jay Singh (SEP-13): Trump's $5,000-per-adult pledge if Republicans win both chambers would add $1.3T to $40T of debt (over $13,000 / ~$2.5T of promised rebates in total, "none of which we'll see"); "what could happen after November could be peanuts" — including export-import halts with deficit trading partners after the Supreme Court's tariff ruling. Jeffrey Christian (CPM, 2026-SEP-12): the midterms will be very tight, skewed by the administration, and "not be resolved" in the first week of November; whichever party wins the House or Senate, "either outcome is bad for the US economy" - bullish gold and silver, negative for the dollar and Treasuries. CPM repeated its 2016 play (a long call butterfly shown Oct 7, 2016 returned 125% in a month) with a gold butterfly shown to clients on Sep 9. 2026-SEP-14 — David Rosenberg: Democrats very likely take the House, Senate a toss-up → fiscal gridlock after six years of 5%+-of-GDP deficits; 'people will wake up on November the 4th realizing the fiscal goodies are over' — bullish bonds, cuts aggregate demand; impeachment proceedings if both houses flip. Dan Niles (2026-SEP-15): September is "seasonally the worst calendar month… up less than 50% of the time." In midterm years since 1990 the median drawdown from end-July to November 9th is 10%, about twice non-midterm years. Cash is his #1 pick until November 3rd. Post-vote tail: "socialist Democrats elected that… hate big business, hate what AI could potentially do." Puplava (2026-SEP-11): presidential-cycle markets bottom just before the midterms, then rally into the third year; gridlock (GOP keeps the Senate, likely loses the House) removes uncertainty, while a Democratic sweep risks impeachment / policy reversal — near the favorable side of the cycle. Salzman (Barron's), 2026-SEP-16: record $6.31 diesel puts a diesel export ban on the pre-midterm table — SoFi's Liz Thomas calls the odds of an announcement before the election "high" and Senate Majority Leader John Thune is open to discussing it. The U.S. has banned crude exports before, never diesel; producers argue it would eventually cut supply and raise prices. Peterffy, 2026-SEP-16: political prediction markets ("more accurate than the polls") point to a Democratic House and a Republican Senate; he puts a 20% chance on a broader US democratic-socialist turn ("the Mamdanis of the world") and is buying land as the hedge. Dan Niles (2026-SEP-04): the shelter for the end-July-to-November-9th window (10% median drawdown in midterm years vs 5% otherwise, 1990–2025) is "cash in a money market fund," which now has "a pretty solid yield no matter what country you're in" — and safe home yields (e.g. Japan, for the first time in three decades) are pulling global money away from equities. Deluard (2026-SEP-17): expects a Democratic blowout ("we'll see Texas… Alaska flip blue… an FDR-like moment") followed by two acrimonious lame-duck years in which "nothing will get done" — one leg of his two-year bear case. 2026-SEP-17 — Tom McClellan: the market bottoms about a month before the midterm, not after — "investors don't care what the outcome is, they just want to know that we have one"; the Nov-1 presidential composite puts the low in late Sep/early Oct, then the year-3 climb. 2026-SEP-18 — Rory Johnston: the pre-midterm oil policy risk is a US diesel/product export ban pushed by the MAGA-nationalist wing (could take $1–2/gal off US diesel) — to matter before the vote it would have to come within ~3 weeks; also flags a possible "unilateral TACO" (the US simply sailing home) if the war drags past Q1. 2026-SEP-21 (CNBC Halftime, Talkington): in 6½ decades there has been a 7–25% drawdown between the August high and the midterm low every time, with November–February after the midterms the best stretch. Her plan is to buy that drawdown in both QQQ and RSP rather than de-risk.