Nickel — supply concentration (new) Contrarian long ▲

Paulo Macro (2025-NOV-16, "The Invisible Metal", back-fill): long nickel as a contrarian event-optionality trade — an invisible, oversupplied, left-for-dead metal whose supply is >70% concentrated in Indonesia + Russia and increasingly exposed to resource-nationalism risk (Indonesia's illegal-tin crackdown as the template for a supply shock); the LME price sits near the cost floor so downside is limited while any Indonesian policy jolt re-rates it violently. Expressed through "paid to wait" North-American juniors — Talon Metals (TLO) and Magna Mining (NICU) — rather than the metal itself.