Palladium / PGM supply deficit (new) Structural deficit ▲ — a demand blindspot plus a shrinking recycling stream

2026-AUG-21 (Hay/Haymaker, PALL Buy reiterated): palladium has been in deficit 14 consecutive years (0.9Moz 2023, 0.5Moz 2024) with the forecast surplus "repeatedly pushed back"; Lac des Iles closed mid-2026 (one of the few non-Russian/non-South-African sources), recycling fell ~700koz 2022–24 (~10% of total supply) as the US fleet aged to a record 12.6 years, and Nornickel ~40% + South Africa ~35% of primary supply sit behind a sanctions exemption "not remotely priced into the current $1,300 spot price." The demand leg inverts the consensus: 85–90% of demand is catalytic converters and PHEVs — not BEVs — are the growth segment (Chinese NEVs >60% of monthly sales, BYD's PHEV export mix 11.6%→37%, Chinese PHEV exports to Europe +700% YoY), using Pd "at rates comparable to conventional gasoline vehicles. Actually, they often consume more." Ceiling on the thesis = Pt substitution, dormant at a Pd/Pt ratio of ~0.70×. BofA's Q4-2026 target ~$2,200/oz vs ~$1,300 spot. Pairs with the platinum theme's 2016–18 palladium ETF-drawdown analog. Paulo Macro 2026-SEP-02: pulls his palladium entry forward — "I think I may need to get long sooner than I thought" — on supply concentration rather than demand: "Comes down to Russia on the supply side at ~40% of global supply." Palladium is his chosen expression of what he calls "the most under-appreciated geopolitical risk on the chessboard right now" (Russian elections 18-20 Sept, NATO flights, Leipzig drones and hybrid warfare), and the whole case rests on the pricing: "None of this is in commodity prices right here." Framed as a trade idea — no size, no level, no instrument named. (2026-SEP-03, Hay/Haymaker) Palladium is promoted from a single Pick of the Week to the load-bearing example for the whole commodity thesis: it is "a salient example" of the "lengthy list of critical commodities in extremely short supply" that, for Hay, settles whether the commodity index's 2026 high is a double top or a continuation. No new call, target or sizing is issued — the reference points back to the Aug-21 POW! reiteration of PALL. (2026-SEP-01, Paulo Macro — origination) The idea began on positioning alone, a day before the Russian-supply catalyst: speculative interest "never flipped firmly net long during the run from ~$1k to $2k" and length has fallen back to the net short last seen in Aug-2025 before the move higher — "positioning is rinsed back to ~$1,100/oz Aug2025 levels, but price is ~$200 higher today vs a year ago at $1300… a higher price deck at the same negative positioning over time always catches my interest, especially in a commodity nobody seems to care about." He concedes palladium "doesn't have the same tight fundamental supply/demand outlook as platinum" and is near-uninvestable at size, so the case is beta: "palladium is to platinum what silver is to gold." Explicitly idea-stage, with no instrument — "please don't ask me how to play it" — which is why the Sep-01 note carries no PALL row and the Sep-02 note, where he pulls the entry forward, does.