Platinum (new) Deep value vs gold ▲

Polomny (Oct 5 '24): platinum is 15–17× scarcer than gold in the crust yet trades near ⅓ of gold's price, with supply in deficit from politically risky sources (South Africa, Russia). Accumulate the metal on a monthly plan rather than the miners (now sold in Costco bars at ~$1,089); Russia's treasury is restarting platinum/palladium purchases (51.5B rubles/yr, 2025–27). Paulo Macro (2026-JAN-14/18, back-fill — the "Dornbusch moment" thesis): a ~year-long physical shortage (1-month lease rates ~19%, a backwardated London curve, sky-high Chinese premiums) meets complacent positioning, while the Pt/Au ratio sits at a ~70% discount to its 40-yr ~1.2× average — mean reversion implies platinum roughly doubles to ~$4,800 even with gold flat ("things take longer to happen than you think… then happen faster than you thought they could"); long Valterra (VAL.JO) + PPLT calls, hedged with futures. Paulo Macro (2026-FEB-02, back-fill): after the holiday breakout through the ~$2,300 all-time high, an overnight "Holy Grail" flush (the hallmark of forced liquidation, not thesis failure) — he reloaded platinum that Friday, confident the non-economic sellers were done. Paulo Macro (Jul 8): collapsed since the January precious-metals bonanza but the fundamentals are unchanged and positioning has "really cleaned up" — global platinum ETFs have quietly drained >500koz since late January (probably to China, never to return as metal — the palladium-2016-18 ETF-drawdown analog that preceded palladium's 2019 wake-up), London stays backwardated (physical tightness), COMEX open interest has collapsed to 5-year rarities, and the borrow rate to short PPLT (the largest ETF, ~1.1Moz of 2.8Moz total) spiked to ~12% annualized — redemptions deep enough to create a borrow issue. "Getting closer to a significant move higher in platinum and copper" (probably early — the tape is a mess); eyes peeled for a final spec liquidation. 2026-AUG-12 (Haymaker/Muir): Muir's action line names platinum alongside gold — "I am buying gold, platinum, and a bunch of different gold mining stocks" — carried in a Daily Haymaker endorses in full. No vehicle named and no Haymaker platinum position; a live guest position, not a house call. 2026-AUG-26: Rule: PGMs “may again be added in investors' minds to the precious metals complex” — Sprott Physical Platinum & Palladium Trust inflows rise when precious metals run, and East Asian cultures have long treated PGMs as precious rather than purely auto-catalyst. Caveat: “I haven't studied the platinum market… since I left Sprott.” (Rick Rule, David Lin Report 2026-AUG-26) (2026-SEP-01, Paulo Macro) Still the lead PGM — "you know I've had my eye on platinum again lately" — and platinum leading is the trigger for the palladium trade: "when the precious metals complex turns and platinum starts to move firmly higher (maybe the turn is in), palladium may actually outperform it." 2026-SEP-16 (Sterck, WPIC): Q2 Platinum Quarterly flips 2026 to a 265koz surplus (May: 295koz deficit), but only because 600koz of ETF/CME-stock outflows in H1 (Fed-hike repricing, stronger USD) made H1 a 550koz surplus; H2 is back in a 285koz deficit. 2025 deficit revised to over 1.4Moz on AI PCB glass-fibre demand; above-ground stocks just over 3 months of demand (under 6 = constrained). Lease rates still elevated, London forward curve heading back toward backwardation; ETF inflows since end-June. AI uses (semis, thermocouples, optical-interconnect crystal crucibles), green hydrogen as energy security; China jewellery weak; recycling +8% from stockpiled cats likely normalizes in 2027. Platinum–gold correlation −0.15 (2014–24) → ~0.95 since 2025.