Space sector (new) Birthing ◆

Thomas (Chart Storm, Jun 14): the SpaceX IPO (SPCX, +19.22% debut) took the US space sector from ~0.2% to ~3% of total market cap overnight — now larger than legacy aerospace & defense — "the birthing of a new and important sector." Expect a bumpy ride: the 10-stock equal-weighted space index (RKLB, LUNR, RDW, VOYG, ASTS, PL, FLY, SPIR, BKSY, SATS) fell ~32% from its May-28 peak (−12% Friday) on buy-the-rumor-sell-the-fact plus rotation out of proxies into SpaceX itself — but the listing is read as longer-term bullish for space stocks (more attention, active + passive flows over time). Harris (Jun 30, cautionary counterpoint): SpaceX is the IPO / private-market froth tell — priced far ahead of fundamentals and (per Harris) rated triple-B on ~$25B of debt before it is cash-flow positive; he "wouldn't touch it with a 10-ft pole," would own Toronto-listed MDA Space instead to play satellites, and doubts the debt market funds the Mars story. Halftime (Jul 10): SPCX now trades below its first-trade price (~$148, −3% on the day Musk postponed his first post-IPO TV interview) — Simpson holds a small position on the Falcon/Starlink near-monopolies + "the Elon Musk factor" premium and would "double down" near $100; Baruch keeps it on-radar (the Colossus supercomputer + Cursor acquisition training its models, scalable toward 1 terawatt) but notes names this fresh off an IPO routinely sell off 50–70%; the lock-up expiry and a possible Tesla tie-up hang over it. Halftime (Jul 15): SPCX closes below the $135 IPO price for the first time — Sechan (a pre-IPO investor) had advised there would "likely be an opportunity to be a better buyer" as lockups release and the SPV economics pay out, "we didn't think it would come this quickly"; Weiss: "a faith stock… tremendous business, but you can't value it"; Terranova pins the slide on momentum-fund unwind and the scarcity premium fading. App Economy (Aug 4): SpaceX's first reported quarter validates the sum-of-the-parts structure — revenue nearly doubled to $7.8B with only Starlink profitable ($4.3B connectivity revenue +66%, subscribers doubled to 12M, >$6B of multi-year Starshield contracts, $1.7B operating profit at a 39% margin), funding a −$542M Starship business and a −$1.3B AI business. Shares fell ~6% on the beat and SPCX trades >10% below its IPO price — "it's usually best to wait it out." 2026-AUG-27: Every: a Trump executive order to massively increase US space launches, targeting ~1,000 a year (“Monday, Wednesday, Friday… every week”) — “look up, because things are about to start getting very contested up in space.” Economics hinge on cost-per-journey collapsing; he leans to the moon-base/space-economics motive, and a credibly profitable launch cadence “doesn't half help support the argument for stablecoins internationally.” (Michael Every, Thoughtful Money 2026-AUG-27) CNBC Halftime — Oliver Renick (Cboe) & the desk (2026-SEP-04): SpaceX now trades publicly alongside the private market, and the options are the story — “hundreds of thousands of contracts… with hundreds of millions of dollars at stake. But the stock’s been trapped in a 10 point range for almost a month, compressing options prices… I’m not convinced that’s right.” Positioning: 11 puts open per 10 calls, but almost all struck below 150 where it already sits, and “not a lot of hedging below $142” — so “bears need to sell off faster than bulls need a rally.” Sechan (long privately “and now publicly”) is selling into “episodic windows to get liquidity” and calls the price “still going through price discovery” with “an evangelical level of support”; Lebenthal’s counter is this theme’s caution in one line: “that evangelical support at times withers — and look at Tesla over the last week or so.”