US agreement-capability / policy-reversal risk (new) Negative — a widening discount on any US promise that must survive an election

2026-AUG-28 — Doomberg (What the Finance): adopts the Russian term: the US and its European allies "are viewed in the rest of the world as not being agreement capable." The exhibits are American, not foreign: a UN-Security-Council-blessed Iran nuclear deal "that Trump promptly ripped up," and domestically "tens of billions of dollars worth of risk capital… incinerated on a political whim" in offshore wind after "the swing of a few votes in seven states." Structural cause: "the capital planning cycle of heavy industry is longer than the political cycle of most western democracies." Consequence — counterparties with longer cycles (China, Iran) rationally wait: "bide their time, call their shots, move when it's to their advantage." The last thing US diplomacy needs is "to be considered the Argentina of geopolitics."