Title: Where is the S&P and Nasdaq Going into Year End | Mark Newton Fundstrat Show: Jimmy Connor (YouTube channel "Jimmy Connor", Toronto) Guest: Mark Newton, CMT — Head of Technical Strategy, Fundstrat Date: 2026-08-15 URL: https://youtu.be/bkL0lcYOTMA Length: 39:30 Note: YouTube auto-transcript; fillers (um / uh / you know / stutters / false starts) removed, wording otherwise verbatim. Name fixes applied: "war chest stance" 21:48 = Fed Chair Warsh's stance; "EWI" 35:40 = the South Korea ETF EWY (named correctly at 14:58) — both marked inline as [as heard: …]. Takaichi-san = Japanese PM Takaichi; "ILF" = iShares Latin America 40 ETF; "Clarity Act" = the crypto market-structure bill; "DRAM index" as heard; "situational awareness" hedge fund as heard.
00:03 Mark, thank you very much for joining us today. I can't believe the last time you and I spoke was in late March and here we are in the middle of August and the S&P continues to make new highs every other day. And before we get your views on what's happening within the marketplace and where you think the markets are going as we go into year end, I want to first start with your methodology.
00:23 And the founder of Fundstrat is Tom Lee, a name many people know, but your methodology in looking at the market is totally different from his. So maybe you can just touch on that. >> Yeah, that's right, Jimmy. Thank you. Look, I practice technical analysis. I've been on the buy and sell side of the business for the last 30 years.
00:43 I specifically look at price action and momentum, volume, sentiment, seasonality, cycles to really make my own opinion known, try to educate investors on what I think the next, say, 3 to 6 weeks at a minimum, but hopefully longer, how that's going to work for not only US equity indices, but looking at commodities and currencies and treasuries and just really across the gamut of anything that shows volatility and evidence of sector rotation, improving or deterioration and
01:18 at various areas is really my specialty. So I rarely try to use too much of what's happening outside of price action, looking at fundamentals to make decisions. I think, honestly, price action is pretty accurate in telling exactly what's happening. Most people that are upset about fundamentals, thinking the market's too high or too low, should, honestly, utilize technicals more to sort of understand exactly where we are and where we could go and where you're wrong. So it's more of
01:55 a disciplined type approach, and that sets me apart from Tom Lee, of course, who's the head of research with Fundstrat. He has more of a top-down approach. It's much more fundamentally and macro-driven, looking at inflation and just breaking down the various components of the economic data and why markets should move based on that.
02:20 But that's certainly a lot longer-term, intermediate-term horizon versus my mind, which is a little more tactical, and I talk about markets daily. >> Okay, that's a great overview. So, let's get into it. And once again, I want to start off with the S&P. And it continues to grind higher every day. It's unbelievable.
02:41 And this is despite of all these headwinds that we currently see throughout the world. We have geopolitical issues throughout the world. This has led to much higher fuel prices. That's led to higher inflation, which has led to higher interest rate expectations. And you would think that would put some pressure or downward pressure on the markets, but it hasn't.
03:01 And then of course, we had this hedge fund blowup situational awareness. I never even heard of this thing a month ago, but it went from 45 billion down to 10 billion in the month of July, and the market just does not care. So, what's your take on the S&P as it stands right now? And do you think it just continues to grind higher into year-end? >> No, I don't suspect that'll be the case.
03:24 Despite the fact that equities are quite resilient, it's been a very difficult year for many. It's been a year that's been rife with a lot of sector rotation. And specifically, the movement in and out of energy along with technology this year has made it very tricky for investors. Thankfully, given the outperformance of groups like financials, healthcare, industrials, we've managed to actually do quite well.
03:50 Those sectors held up at a time when technology was deteriorating from May into July. So, that was specifically very helpful at a time that tech consolidated. Now, tech has come back with a vengeance. We know that earnings in general profit growth has been really the best we've seen since the late '90s.
04:10 And even if you strip out the AI influence, it's really been earnings that have helped to give people a lot of conviction as why markets should move higher. And honestly, it's rarely correct to really use things like wars or exogenous type factors to really try to understand how the market moves.
04:32 Even when your earlier comment about inflation, break evens have been cut in half over the last few months. The market certainly does not expect inflation to come back. Even the data in recent weeks has been very encouraging in that regard. And we can talk about that a little bit more, but inflation data this week out of CPI and PPI and last week's jobs numbers, the economy certainly seems to be sort of in a Goldilocks area.
05:01 And at the same time, crude oil pulled back from 90 down to the high 60s. And now it's starting to turn back higher. With regards to the S&P, intermediate term things are very very good. We still see momentum is sloped to the upside. Markets are not really all that overbought, honestly.
05:21 If anything, we're just now nearing overbought levels if you measure by relative strength index RSI on a weekly basis. On a daily basis, things have gotten a little more stretched and we're nearing levels where I think we will start to slow down and pause. That likely happens in the month of August.
05:40 And so, it's a tricky time usually in the third quarter, specifically of a midterm election year. I don't suspect that we can get up above 7,900 right away. My target for the year is 8,000, but I think it's going to be tricky. And that specifically has to do with three main factors.
05:59 It's because crude oil I suspect is going to actually push back higher to 100 when you look at WTI. I think in interest rates the trajectory should be bullish for long rates, meaning we're going to have a treasury decline where yields creep back to the highs and actually get close to 5%. And I think the tech has worked so well in the last month that now we're nearing important levels for technology.
06:22 And that's probably also going to show signs of slowing yet again. So, near term I think for those that are watching this a few days late, we are having a breakout today in the S&P as well as the Nasdaq getting above what we call triangle consolidations that have been attacked for the last month.
06:43 So, this is actually short-term very constructive for the market. It coincides with data that's shown really little evidence of inflation. So, yields are starting to pull back. Equities have broken out and some of this is tech driven, but it's also been helpful to see other areas as I said before, participate and help.
07:05 So, it is a bullish market environment. I said at the beginning of the year I thought we would be up 5% for the year. I had a target of 7,300. I thought it was going to be very choppy and really the market's been a little bit more resilient than that, but a lot of that has just been the choppiness of the sector rotation that is very much still ongoing.
07:24 So, I don't sense that it's going to be a market where everything works all at once probably until after the midterms. And I think thereafter any sort of pullback that we get from October into November is probably going to be one of the better buying opportunities we've seen throughout the entire 4-year cycle.
07:44 So, I am optimistic between now and year end, but I don't think it's going to prove to be easy between probably the latter part of August into September, October. I think we will get some backing and filling to this push up that we've seen since late July. So, I am bullish, but we started off with a 9% pullback and then about a 20% rise off those levels, and that did help to improve a lot of the technical indicators and a lot of the momentum and breadth is now at new highs when we look at the Russell 3000.
08:13 So, a lot of very encouraging data that has little to do with the war or inflation, but more to do with earnings and just about an economy that keeps on ticking. >> One of the indicators you like to look at is the number of stocks trading above the 200-day moving average. And when we last spoke in March, that number was around 40%.
08:37 Where does it stand now? >> Yeah, we've continued to push higher off the March lows as well as really since the latter part of July, we've been moving up. So, I think we're up about 60% as of now. We're up above 50. That's certainly encouraging. It's moving in the right direction. Back in late 2021, we saw exactly the opposite.
08:59 We saw breadth start to really nose dive, and that was a pretty good tell for the market that we could start to turn down. It's almost always really important to keep on top of not only the advanced decline data, but the copper curve and I look at McClellan oscillator, the summation index, but really the percentage of how many stocks are above their 20, 50, and 200 is really really important.
09:23 That will give you an absolute early warning as to when stocks should start to falter and fall because we know the markets are very dominated by a handful of stocks. And so, just because the S&P is moving to new highs does not mean that the broader market is — always important to concentrate on how many stocks are actually fueling this move and if those are starting to roll over and wane.
09:49 And we saw that in late 2021, we saw it the beginning of 2025 that actually was a great breakdown in breadth that preceded the move down into the liberation day low in March and or in April and then also the same thing happened honestly earlier this spring right around the time we spoke that had turned down pretty sharply in February and we bottomed of course right around the same time as last year, right within a week in the latter part of March.
10:18 So, at this point it's upward sloping, it looks very good. We see the Russell 3000 advanced decline has just eclipsed the prior peak that we saw in 2021. So, that's actually very very good news I think for the broader market. Even if it's been very choppy, the market as a whole is holding up and I think that it's not just tech despite what we hear every day about being led by a handful of stocks and that's been the case in US markets along with most foreign markets for the last 100 years,
10:50 where it's been led by a handful of stocks and we used to have our Exxons and the DuPonts and the Generals, General Motors, General Electric, and now it's obviously more with the hyperscalers and AI that comprise this bucket. So, definitely important to keep on top of the stocks that are driving it, but honestly underneath the hood there are very very encouraging things happening in healthcare right now and healthcare as a sector has broken out above almost a three-year
11:19 downtrend relative to the S&P. It's been under relentless pressure for reasons such as price, obviously drug pricing and the Affordable Care Act subsidies being lifted in some parts of healthcare and companies have been hurt. But now we're starting to rebound and it's been sort of broad-based, biotechnology, pharmaceutical stocks, HMOs.
11:45 >> So Mark, that's a great overview of the S&P. Why don't we move on now and discuss the Nasdaq? Back in Q1, Q2, the big concern was software names and what AI would do to these software names. Microsoft, Adobe, Oracle, and so many other names just got slaughtered, but they all have seen a big move back in here in the last couple of months.
12:05 But now the weakness is with these chip stocks. And when you look at the DRAM index, it got as low as 20,000, now it's around 25,000. But when you look at the Nasdaq, what's your take there and do you have any concerns? >> I don't have any near-term concerns, only that price is slowly but surely moving back up to test the highs that were seen back in June, I guess, was when the Nasdaq officially made its all-time highs both on the Nasdaq 100 and also in the composite. So, I believe that was
12:38 around 27,100 for the Nasdaq composite and think right around 30,700 for Nasdaq 100. That's going to act as an area of short-term resistance, as they say. So, I think that will cause a stalling out of the short-term rally. But in the bigger picture, indices being at or near all-time highs is generally pretty encouraging.
13:03 And on an intermediate-term basis, that's something that we really want to stick with and just look to buy dips when they happen. So, that's happening not only with the Nasdaq, of course, but many other indices. But specifically with the Nasdaq, it's been great to see technology come back the way it has. The good news for tech is that the decline we saw did not happen all at once. It happened one by one.
13:27 Initially we saw the software deterioration that started actually late last year. That has since bottomed. We've seen software start to push off the lows and then of course it shifted to more semiconductor semi-cap equipment weakness and then the final shoe to drop was really a lot of these memory names and one by one all of these areas have stabilized including the mag seven, the hyperscalers.
13:51 I think in general it's good news to see tech rallying to the extent it is. It's obviously still the heaviest part of the US indices and unless tech really starts to pull back sharply then generally the market is in pretty good shape. >> And it's amazing when you look at some of these memory names like SanDisk is one name I love to follow.
14:18 I've never traded it but it went from 2400 down to 1000. Now it's at 1300 give or take but it's still up 450% on the year. >> Yeah. >> Which is a massive move. >> No, I think that many of these, just in the last couple days your viewers will be interested to see that the entire memory space has broken back out versus equal weighted technology.
14:41 It was trending down obviously since really early June. So it's actually on little bit better footing now. It's not going to be a straight shot back to the highs but I think it will take time. But certainly trading a little bit better over the last week and it's good to see for that part of the market.
14:58 It's obviously helped the South Korean ETF as well the EWY which many people might track. >> Okay, so you're bullish on stocks. Let's talk about bonds now and once again I want to go back to January. The narrative at that time was interest rates were going to be cut. But then of course we had the outbreak of war in the Middle East and this has resulted in higher oil prices and that's changed everything.
15:22 And now the expectation for interest rates is that we're going to see a bump or an increase by year-end. And when you look at the 10-year, I think it's around 425, 430. The 30-year, the yield on the 30-year is around 520, 525. But what's your take on bonds here? >> My thinking is that the US remains sort of the best house in a bad neighborhood.
15:48 We've seen yields start to increase on the long end across the globe, really in most places outside the US. The US has been sort of a newcomer to this party. We did see the 30-year yield attempt to break out last month. The 10-year also got up to about 470 six or so. And since then yields have retreated as economic data has come in that's really not shown much evidence of inflation.
16:15 So this week's data specifically has caused yields to pull back down to 464 from highs that we saw last month near mid-470s. In the bigger picture, I do think that yields are going to start to press back to the upside. It's not necessarily that inflation's going to roar back. But I do think that crude oil, if my expectations are correct, we probably do move from a price of right around say $82 where crude is trading today, probably up to about 100 over the next one or two months. And if that
16:49 happens, then that certainly could raise at least the term premium, we've already seen that start to escalate a little bit and certainly raise the prospect for long rates. But rates have been pushing up also because growth has been much better than expected and it's important to say that as well.
17:09 We look at the Atlanta Fed data with GDP. So it's been a combination, honestly, of heightened expectations of inflation. Some of that comes from the Fed's last meeting where Warsh basically eliminated the prospects for forward guidance. Continues to not really want to talk about the economy or how he sees things. So, the front end remains anchored, but the long end has been pressing up really since that time.
17:34 And if anything, that's steepening out of the yield curve, generally good for financials. But I think that interest rates on the long end have started to creep higher. We're seeing mortgage rates now around 6.7%. And many of us that own houses in the states a few years ago, we had 2 and 1/2 to 3% mortgage rates, and now they're more than double.
17:59 So, I think eventually that is going to start to hurt supply in many parts of the US. But sort of a tricky time. I think the Fed, to its credit, the data has come in to sort of reinforce Warsh's message. And he has not really joined a lot of those dissenters who had suspected they should hike rates.
18:21 So, the percentage for a rate hike in September is only about 40% as of now. But there is a likelihood that they can hike between now and year end as of now. So, if the data continues to come in disinflationary, I think that could actually remove the chance for that hike. And I don't think the Fed should be hiking.
18:40 I think that in general, any sort of move in crude is 100% supply shock. I don't sense it is going to prove to be long-lasting. We should be on the verge of carving out a deal to get the strait open in bigger fashion. I know there's a lot of skepticism about that, but I think that in general, that is going to happen.
19:02 And if anything, that's going to bring crude back down to probably around $50 a barrel or so between now and year end, even if initially we go up to 100. So, inflation between now and year end I sense is going to fall even if it temporarily goes up and we know that any sort of move by the Fed takes about 12 to 18 months to filter through the system.
19:24 So, to think that the Fed needs to move right away, the data just doesn't suggest that that is correct in my view. So, most break evens have been plummeting. The data that's come out has not been all that inflationary. So, I know it's a popular narrative that inflation is a big problem. And yes, it may be at 2 and 1/2, 3% it's above the Fed's target.
19:49 But still it certainly has moved in the right direction over the last few years and I sense that's going to continue. >> I hope you're right about oil going to 50 bucks because these higher gas prices are killing me. I'm based in Toronto and so I'm paying a dollar 60 a liter. If I do the conversion that's like 430, 440 a gallon.
20:10 What are you paying where you are for a gallon of gas, regular gas? >> I'm a Tesla owner and so it's all EV for me. So, I pay about 15 bucks a month if that. I don't pay hardly anything and so I would encourage people to explore the beauty of having a car that not only can drive on its own but also is very very cheap for energy costs.
20:31 >> Yes, I'm going to look into it. One of the things why I haven't looked at an EV, two reasons. One because of the range and because I'm in Toronto we get very cold winters and I keep hearing that the cold weather will reduce the power or the charge by 20 to 30%. So, that's one reason and then of course there's just not enough charging stations, right? So, >> Well, that could be problematic in your area.
20:56 I know when I drive up to Vermont sometimes it can be an issue where there aren't that many but I get about 280 miles and I think in general it's very favorable to most people probably be hard pressed to drive more than 4 hours before at least getting out and taking a coffee break or a walk.
21:13 And so, as long as you map out your drive in advance and as in the US there's thousands and thousands of charging stations everywhere. So, that's never really a problem for at least for me. >> Okay, so you mentioned the financials a couple of times. And so, let's talk about these because this is what's happening in this market.
21:30 Even though one sector's getting hit, the money's moving to another sector and we're seeing that in the financials. JP Morgan trading at or near all-time highs. Market cap is very close to a trillion dollars. I think it's up about 13% on the year. Canada's largest bank is Royal Bank. Same sort of thing.
21:48 I believe it's up 20 or 25% on the year. Trading at all-time highs. But, what's your view on the financials here? Do they keep going? >> I'm overweight the financials. I think they do. Specifically because of what Warsh's stance [as heard: "war chest stance"] and the Fed's stance towards forward guidance has done to the yield curve and starting to steepen out pretty dramatically in the last few weeks.
22:13 And if we look back in history, even back towards 2013 at the taper tantrum or post the first Trump win in 2016, whenever we see a big steepening in the yield curve and rates start to creep up, that's generally been very constructive for financials. We know that banks, of course, borrow short, lend long.
22:32 It's very helpful for the net interest margins. And we're seeing that of course in Europe even to a larger extent where their bank stocks have just been on an explosive tear for more than a couple of years now. And our own markets, honestly, the banks have just started to come back to life.
22:50 Initially, it was more of the capital markets, the investment banks, the Goldman Sachs and the Morgan Stanleys. But just in the last year we've seen more evidence of Bank of America and Bank of New York and Citigroup starting to push higher breakout and make good headway. So, I'm very encouraged actually about the financial sector.
23:11 I think it seems to be in a sweet spot right now with the economy. And it's moving higher. It's not just because of term premiums rising that the yield curve is steepening. I think it's also because of growth expectations. And so, if the yield curve can push up because of growth, that's generally a very good time for financials.
23:32 And so, I think that's the era we're in right now. >> One thing that the banks do very well is they nickel and dime you to death. >> They always make money. They charge you five bucks for this or 10 bucks for that. It's >> You're right about that. >> It drives me insane.
23:48 All right, let's move on to precious metals. I want to get your view here because 2025 was the year for gold and silver. Gold was up 66%. Silver was up 160%. This year, totally different story. Gold is relatively flat. Silver's down on the year. I think it's down five or 10%, but what's your take on gold? >> Well, we've seen a pretty constructive rally thus far in August.
24:14 And some of that has happened according to seasonality kicking into gear. Some of the larger cycles for gold bottomed in June. My expectation is that it's still going to be a tricky time for gold probably over the next month simply because I do suspect that long rates are going to start to creep back higher.
24:37 And historically, it's been a tricky time to own precious metals when that happens. We are in a very good time of the year for owning precious metals. Normally, August through October, we get very good gains. We've certainly seen that thus far, gold pushing up from what, 3,900 to almost about 4,350 or so. I think gold can probably rally to about 4,600.
24:59 Thereafter, I think if that were to happen over the next few weeks, I'd be a little bit more cautious and expect that we're going to have sort of a final shoe to drop. And I just think it all has to do with interest rates pushing up. I think it's just very tricky. We're seeing real rates at almost former highs and it's just a tough environment for the metals right now, even though the central banks have started to re-engage and are buying now. If rates start to
25:27 come back down, gold will certainly rally on evidence of economic weakness. But right now we're seeing the opposite and normally that makes for a tough time for gold. In the bigger scheme of things, we saw gold get to really one of its more overbought levels of all time into early January of this year when the relative strength index, the RSI, was up around a 90 or even higher.
25:52 And so, we know that after having pushed up for about 3 years straight up and very few people recognized that metals were in a big bull market and up until about probably 3 to 6 months prior to the peak. And then, optimism started to really get baked into this market. We saw a lot of speculation, a lot of enthusiasm towards the metals, and that promptly coincided with the pretty big bust that has happened honestly over the last 7 months.
26:20 But I do think that they make a lot of sense for long-term investors. I think at these levels after having pulled back from 5,000 to 3,500 or so, I'm just looking at buying dips. I really don't trust this first little bounce off the lows, and I'm much more of a buyer on weakness.
26:41 I think if we get weakness into September, then I'd be a much bigger buyer on gold and silver heading into next year. >> So, you're looking for a very strong 2027 for gold and silver? >> I think that's right. I think that probably rates after they've pushed up are going to start to eventually retreat again.
27:03 And so, that'll make for probably a better environment at that time for the metals next year. And the fact that they've already pulled back so substantially from all-time highs, and the intermediate trends are still pretty favorable. It's really just been intermediate, I guess, in this sense, meaning over the last decade or at least since 2022, it's just been a pretty big sell-off.
27:24 And so, that could mark a time when you still want to be involved in to own metals. I think as rates continue to press up on the long end, that's going to probably hurt growth expectations. I think that the time from 2028 into 2030 is much more of a time I'd be concerned about than really now.
27:45 So, eventually it'll be time to own gold again. I can't say it just yet that we're there. >> And I know you don't like giving long-term targets, but when you look out to 2027, do you see us taking out those highs that we saw in 2025, early 2026? In both gold and silver? >> That's pretty tricky to make a long-term bet like that.
28:09 I think that probably can happen, yes. But I think if anything, it's going to happen between probably I would say October of this year, probably into the fall of next year. And that would probably be my — at that time gold in general is pretty late in its cycles. Normally you see cycles in 6 years or so.
28:31 And we've already saw it. We saw a very decent almost a 4-year rally, and now at least a 7-month pullback. So, I think that's a trickier call for me. Honestly, if we talk and trends start to improve momentum, I'd be much more in tune to being bullish.
28:52 I don't like to make big long-term calls when at least for now the momentum is not yet turned enough to make me real bullish in the short-term. >> And just because we're talking about gold, I got to get your thoughts on Bitcoin and it's been consolidating now for quite some time in between the 60 to 65,000 level.
29:11 I know Tom Lee's very bullish on Bitcoin, but what are your thoughts? >> Well, look, I think this is a crypto winter. Bitcoin has sold off substantially since last October. So, in the last 10 months, it's gone from what 127,000 down, it's been cut in half. And my thinking is that we are getting closer to a bottom, but it's really really difficult to put much stock into the rally that we've seen off the June lows.
29:41 Really has been very uninspiring to me and now we're nearing a time where I think rates are going to probably bottom and start to turn higher and we know the Clarity Act is probably unlikely to be signed before the midterm election. It's gotten very political and I think that would be one thing that could be beneficial from a non-technical perspective as to why crypto would start to work.
30:05 Technically momentum, you look at monthly momentum, it's still very negative on crypto. I'm not a fan in the short-term. I do think that it's going to bottom in about 2 months. So, about probably by the next time that we speak, it will have bottomed and start to turn higher. So, if you have a 2-year 3-year perspective, then sure you can own crypto here, but if you have a 1-month perspective, I think it's probably better to hold off.
30:32 I think you can find better entry points. I sense that as rates start to increase on the long end, that's specifically going to be something that not only affects gold and silver, but also affect Bitcoin and we'll see, honestly, the bond market has done the Fed's job for them and as long rates have pushed a little bit higher, and I think that Bitcoin tends to trade well when you have an increase in liquidity, and if anything, we're seeing almost the opposite right now. So, there's a lot of
31:00 headwinds. There's still not a lot of enthusiasm. The positioning is not ideal. It's gotten a little more negative. People realize that if they want to make money, a few years ago it was right to buy Bitcoin. Now they're buying memory stocks. I think that eventually we'll get back to a time when crypto starts to work.
31:18 Overall, I think crypto bottoms within 2 months. I just can't say that we're there. So, my call is that we likely have a pretty steep sell-off over the next 1 or 2 months, and that's really something you want to buy into, and that thereafter, I think we will start to have a pretty sharp rally between now and next summer, and if anything, this probably continues into 2028.
31:45 So, we sort of — Sorry, go ahead. >> Can you quantify a steep sell-off? >> Yeah, I think Bitcoin at currently at 63,000, would pull back to challenge the prior lows, which is near 57, I guess, and probably undercut that and get down to probably 52. Probably a maximum of 40,000 is what I'm thinking, and for Ethereum, it probably goes from 1885 to probably about 1,500.
32:12 It might not make a new low, but I sense that Bitcoin probably will. So, I just think in general investors have to be prepared for these kinds of drawdowns, which normally you do have every 4 years. You look back at 2022 or 2018, 2014, heading into this year, the forecast was the Bitcoin to go to 60, and so people are asking now, well, has it bottomed? And I just don't see a lot of technical evidence yet.
32:42 So, I'm still thinking it probably is going to weaken a little bit more. But, for long-term investors, that would be probably a great time to buy at a time when sentiment should start to turn a lot more negative over the next 2 months, and that's probably the time you really want to invest. >> So, if I want to summarize a few of the points that we discussed here, overall, it sounds like you're positive on the markets.
33:03 I wouldn't say super bullish, S&P's currently trading around 7,800. Your target is 8,000. So, that's only another 200 points, and that could get there in a couple of weeks or a month. You're positive on the Nasdaq. It sounds like you're very positive on financials and also healthcare. Take your time on gold and silver.
33:23 You think there's still lots of time left there, and they're not going to do much given what's going on with interest rates. Did I touch on all the high points there? Is there anything I'm missing or anything else you would like to add? >> A lot of institutions ask me about the dollar.
33:39 What do I think about the dollar? I just think it's important to say that what's happening with the yen has been pretty important and what their own sort of reluctance to hike rates and the fact that dollar yen has gotten up to pretty high levels and their own JGBs have been pushing up. There's a huge rate repatriation theme happening.
34:04 I think it really has global implications. And so, now we've had a coordinated effort to come in and intervene to try to prop up the yen. And Takaichi-san just came out recently and said that she's encouraging their government, the BOJ, to consider hiking at the next meeting.
34:24 We'll see what kind of influence that has, but I think there's about a 75% chance that the Bank of Japan hikes rates in September. So, there should be some upward pressure on the yen for those that care on that. I think we probably have a move down in dollar yen to about 150. And thereafter, it's going to be right to sell the yen again.
34:43 I think that in general, their process of gradualism following almost a couple decades of deflation, it really is going to continue to have the yen trade lower, which means we probably see dollar yen get back up to 175 180. So, for the dollar index, my thinking is it probably is very close to bottoming in the short run.
35:04 And even though I think the yen probably does go higher, also. So, that means we'll probably have pretty good weakness in the euro and pound sterling as the dollar bounces. DXY could get up to 102 and 1/2. And thereafter, I think the dollar is going to start to roll over probably into next year.
35:20 And so, that's a good sign for emerging markets. We've seen China has been a little bit of the laggard this year. Recently, some of the political situation in Brazil has caused the ILF and really the Brazilian stock market to start to roll over a little bit. So, Latin America, first part of the year was a great place to be.
35:40 This time, I think it's still sort of a wait-and-see. I would much more be apt to follow South Korea, the EWY [as heard: "EWI"], and look for an eventual further bounce out of China at a time when it really has lagged pretty sharply. >> And when you look out to the end of 2026 into say the first half of 2027, do you have any concerns? Is there anything in the back of your mind where you think, "Okay, this could be a real issue?" >> No, I don't really.
36:15 I think that most of the concerns that investors have should be more focused on the level of CapEx and really what's going on to fuel the AI trade that really is going to continue to dominate the narrative likely over the next 2 years. I think when you have companies that are trying like hell to raise money and you see Google trying to raise 25, 30 billion dollars and they're already spending over 200 billion on CapEx.
36:46 These are extraordinary numbers. This isn't going away anytime soon. And honestly, I don't sense that it's a bubble. I think that these companies are making really an extraordinary amount of money. We're almost in a time like the late '90s where even though I do expect choppiness in the market between now and October, I think in general we're still in the midst of a pretty big secular AI boom that really warrants paying attention as opposed to many paying attention to political back-and-forth discussions or what's
37:20 going on with their thoughts of inflation or the war. All those are secondary to really what's happening not only in the earnings picture in the US right now. And with the economy holding up, I think those are two events and the technical situation of the market has improved. So, I think it's going to be a bullish couple of years, honestly, even if it's choppy between now and the election.
37:45 So, I look forward to hopefully buying dips in parts of tech between August and October and I think that in general we're still very much in a sweet spot over the next couple of years. >> Well, this has been a great overview, Mark, and I want to thank you very much for spending time with us today. And you and your team are very active online.
38:03 If somebody would like to follow you, where can they go? >> Well, I do post probably once or twice a day, not often, but on X it's Mark Newton CMT and for retail investors, they can come to fundstratdirect.com. I believe we have a QR code that we're going to post to allow you to probably get a couple weeks free of all of our research.
38:27 That includes not only myself, I do technical analysis videos every day about 7 to 10 minutes each day along with a lengthy report. Tom Lee, of course, and his videos and commentary and sort of outside the box esoteric thinking on markets. And we have a crypto team as well as a policy guy that looks at almost everything.
38:46 So, we're pretty well rounded in how we approach markets and so that's the fundstratdirect.com or just fundstrat.com. If you're an institution, we do have of course we set up face-to-face meetings and try to educate you once a month and do lots of calls and explain our views as to what we see.
39:08 >> Very well. Well, and I will have links to both of those in the show notes below. Once again, Mark, thank you. >> Thank you. >> Good luck in the markets. >> Thank you very much.