Actionable insights — Gold Suppression, Bond Markets 'Revolting' & Why Juniors Will Outperform

02:36 1. On every drawdown, re-check the thesis — then size up if nothing structural changed

1. When the metal or a stock falls sharply, list the reasons you own it (macro driver, asset quality, management).
2. Ask whether any of them changed structurally, or whether it's price and sentiment only.
3. If only sentiment changed, treat the pullback as the allocation window and write your largest checks then.

• A genuine structural break (balanced budgets, real rates rising without intervention) — the only thing that would change his read.

21:47 2. Price junior ounces off the majors' margin, not off history

1. Margin = spot gold minus industry all-in costs.
2. What an acquirer can justify per in-ground ounce is roughly 10–20% of spot, after a couple hundred dollars of build capital.
3. Compare with the junior's EV per ounce; the gap is the rerating upside. Multiply by expected resource growth for the "double leverage."
4. Anchor on recent takeover prices per ounce as proof of what majors actually pay.

• Further takeovers above $300–400/oz — confirmation the rerating is spreading.
• All-in cost inflation eating the margin the math depends on.

27:35 3. Worth zero or a lot more: screen for what a major would build

1. Ask whether a producer that builds only one or two mines at a time would choose this asset over its alternatives.
2. Require top-decile economics: grade, scale, infrastructure, low capital. Any red flag kills it regardless of price.
3. Stress the economics at conservative metal prices ($2,000–2,500 gold); reject assets that need $4,000+ to work.

• Your junior slipping down the global pecking order as better projects emerge.

40:10 4. Value polymetallic deposits by NSR per tonne

1. Start from grades; apply metallurgical recoveries and payabilities to get recoverable value per tonne (net smelter return).
2. Convert to gold-equivalent grade (about $200/t per g/t gold at today's price) to compare with gold projects.
3. Subtract mining and processing cost for margin; weigh against build capital. Ignore the metal mix itself.

• Metallurgy results — poor recoveries in a multi-metal flowsheet can gut the NSR.

42:50 5. Start at 1%, pre-allocate to 5%, starve the weeds

1. First check about 1% of capital, sized to buy a meaningful stake in a sub-$50M company with billion-dollar potential.
2. Pre-commit up to ~5% over future financings, conditional on execution.
3. If geology, management, strategy or the commodity thesis fails, stop funding: the loss is capped at 1–2%.
4. Don't trim winners; let follow-on checks plus appreciation grow them to 10–20% of the book.

• Each financing as a decision point: add, hold or starve.

45:29 6. Hold (or add) against a written fair value, not against your cost

1. At entry, write down what the company is worth if it succeeds.
2. After a big move, compare price to that fair value, not to your purchase price.
3. Treat holding as re-buying daily: every position must beat your best alternative use of capital.

• Price exceeding written fair value — his only sell trigger besides a broken thesis.