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Nomi Prins — Two Rare Earth Deals in Two Days. Washington Is All In.

Two U.S.-backed rare-earth deals on two continents in 48 hours — Washington is funding, owning and securing the magnet supply chain to break China's grip.
2026-APR-27 · Prinsights (Substack) · Nomi Prins (ex-Goldman Sachs MD; Prinsights Global) · newsletter · ↗ Read on Substack
One-line take: Washington is racing to own, fund and secure the rare-earth supply chain outside China, and two government-backed deals in two days prove how fast it's moving — USA Rare Earth's $2.8B acquisition of Serra Verde (Brazil's Pela Ema ionic-clay mine, the only producer outside Asia supplying all four magnetic rare earths at scale, incl. scarce dysprosium & terbium), one day after the U.S. DFC took a $50M equity stake in Rainbow Rare Earths' Phalaborwa project in South Africa. China controls ~91% of global refining; the Hormuz blockade adds urgency. Note: this page is built from the article's free/public portion — Prins's specific Pulse Premium (March) and Founders+ (April) picks are reserved for paid subscribers, though she notes the March pick is the U.S. rare-earth company behind one of the largest Western acquisitions (up ~25% since rec'd) and the April pick is the processor building the separation capacity the deal depends on.

1. Stocks & names mentioned

Prins writes a top-down rare-earth policy thesis; the names below are cited as evidence of Washington and its allies funding the ex-China supply chain — not as individual buy/sell ratings (her actual picks are paywalled). "View" reflects how each was framed in the piece. The "At" link opens the article. Research: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis.

TickerNameResearchViewWhat she saidAt
USARUSA Rare EarthQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveAnnounced a $2.8B definitive deal ($300M cash + 126.8M shares) to acquire Serra Verde — building "a global champion" running mine-to-magnet (Brazil mine → Oklahoma magnets); already got a $1.6B Commerce debt-and-equity package in January; combined ~$3.2B liquidity.read
LYCLynas Rare EarthsSA · STK · FAPositiveThe roadmap-setter — first company outside China to produce commercial dysprosium oxide (May 2025); Japan has committed to buying 5,000 t/yr of rare earths from Lynas through 2038.read
MPMP MaterialsQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveThe template for the whole strategy — the Pentagon's first rare-earth equity stake started Washington's push; MP is now providing the technical expertise for Saudi Arabia's new rare-earth refinery (Maaden holds 51%).read
RBWRainbow Rare EarthsSTK · FANeutralRecipient of a $50M U.S. DFC equity stake in its Phalaborwa project (South Africa) on April 19 — one of the two government-backed deals showing how global the ex-China push has become.read
TROXTronox HoldingsQT · SA · STK · FANeutralA major component of the April 12 U.S.-Australia $3.5B critical-minerals commitment — A$849M in combined financing for the Tronox rare-earths refinery.read
Serra Verde GroupSerra Verde Group (Pela Ema mine, Brazil)NeutralUSA Rare Earth's $2.8B target — the only producer outside Asia supplying all four magnetic rare earths at scale (incl. scarce separated dysprosium & terbium); ~$550-650M annualized EBITDA projected by end-2027 at full Phase 1.read
MaadenSaudi Arabian Mining Co. (Ma'aden)NeutralHolds 51% of Saudi Arabia's new rare-earth refinery (with MP providing technical expertise) — part of the allied parallel buildout of ex-China processing.read

"View" reflects how each name was framed in this article (Positive = a funded builder/validator of the ex-China rare-earth chain; Neutral = a target or funded project cited as evidence), not a price rating. Built from the article's free/public portion; Prins's specific recommendations are reserved for Pulse Premium / Founders+ subscribers. Research: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis.

2. Key points

Two government-backed deals in two days, two continents

The strategy started with MP Materials

The bottleneck is heavy rare earths

Washington isn't moving alone

The Iran war added urgency

The takeaway (free portion)

3. In plain English

A jargon-free summary of why each name is in the piece. (Plain-language companion to the table above; renders on each ticker's consolidated page.)

USAR — USA Rare Earth Positive

USA Rare Earth is trying to build a complete "mine-to-magnet" business that doesn't depend on China. It just agreed to pay $2.8 billion to buy Serra Verde, which owns a working mine in Brazil that produces all four of the rare-earth metals used to make powerful magnets — including dysprosium and terbium, the two that almost nobody outside China can supply. Combined with the company's existing magnet factory in Oklahoma and $1.6 billion of U.S. government backing, this turns it into a one-stop Western alternative to the Chinese supply chain. Prins frames Washington's money behind it as the key signal.

LYC — Lynas Rare Earths Positive

Lynas, an Australian company, was the first business outside China to actually produce the hard-to-make heavy rare earth dysprosium at commercial scale. That proved it can be done off Chinese soil. Japan is now locked into buying 5,000 tons a year from Lynas all the way to 2038 — a long-term vote of confidence that makes Lynas a cornerstone of the allied effort to break China's near-monopoly.

MP — MP Materials Positive

MP Materials is where this whole story began: the Pentagon taking a direct ownership stake in it was the first sign Washington would put government money into rare earths. MP is now exporting its know-how — it's providing the technical expertise for Saudi Arabia's new refinery. Prins uses it as the template the newer deals are copying.

RBW — Rainbow Rare Earths Neutral

Rainbow Rare Earths is a smaller developer whose South African project (Phalaborwa) just received a $50 million equity investment directly from a U.S. government agency, the DFC. Prins isn't rating the stock; she's using the deal as one of the two examples (alongside USA Rare Earth) of how fast and how globally U.S. capital is now flowing into rare earths outside China.

TROX — Tronox Holdings Neutral

Tronox is getting a big slice of a U.S.-Australia funding package — about A$849 million toward its rare-earths refinery. Prins cites it to show the allied buildout is real and well-funded: it's not just the U.S. acting alone, but a coordinated push to stand up processing capacity in friendly countries.


Summary derived from the public (free) portion of the Prinsights Substack article for personal study. Not investment advice; the author's specific recommendations are paywalled. © Nomi Prins / Prinsights for source material.