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Nomi Prins — Copper's Official Forecaster Just Got It So Wrong

The ICSG flipped its 2026 call from shortage to surplus — but the price, the smelters and the smart money are all saying the opposite.
2026-APR-29 · Prinsights (Substack) · Nomi Prins (ex-Goldman Sachs MD; Prinsights Global) · newsletter · ↗ Read on Substack
One-line take: the International Copper Study Group (the market's official forecaster since 1992) flipped its 2026 call from a 150kt shortage to a 96kt surplus on April 24 — but a 96kt "surplus" on a 28Mt market is a rounding error, and copper at ~$6/lb on COMEX (near an all-time high) is behaving like a tight market. Prins gives four reasons the ICSG is wrong: (1) supply is cracking — smelter TC/RCs gone negative, Ivanhoe/Freeport/Anglo all cutting guidance; (2) China halting sulfuric-acid exports May 1 chokes ~20% of refined output; (3) the June 30 Lutnick Section 232 report can only be bullish for U.S. copper; (4) record COMEX inventories were stockpiled below the tariff price — the smart money already moved. Note: built from the article's free portion — her specific North American copper-producer pick drops in the next Pulse Premium issue (paywalled).

1. Stocks & names mentioned

Prins writes a top-down copper-supply thesis; the named miners below are cited as evidence of the supply crunch (guidance cuts, strikes, zero-dollar smelter deals) — not as individual buy/sell ratings (her actual pick is paywalled). "View" reflects how each was framed in the piece. The "At" link opens the article. Research: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis.

TickerNameResearchViewWhat she saidAt
CopperCopper (COMEX / LME)PositiveTrading ~$6/lb on COMEX (+24% y/y, near all-time high) — the price disagrees with the ICSG's surplus call; Prins is in the "any surplus is temporary, structural demand intact" camp.read
IVNIvanhoe MinesSA · STK · FANeutralSupply-crack exhibit — cut Kamoa-Kakula's 2026 guidance from 380-420kt to 290-330kt after a seismic event; founder Robert Friedland warns some copper producers have <30 days of acid supply.read
FCXFreeport-McMoRanQT · SA · STK · FANeutralSupply-crack exhibit — Grasberg (world's #2 copper mine) still under force majeure on block-cave operations after a fatal mudslide; no restart until later this quarter.read
NGLOYAnglo AmericanSA · STKNeutralSupply-crack exhibit — a top-five global miner that recently downgraded 2026 production guidance on operational issues in Chile.read
ANTOAntofagastaSA · STKNeutralConcentrate-crisis exhibit — its benchmark annual deal with Chinese smelters closed at zero dollars per tonne for 2026; Japanese/Korean/European smelters are still holding out against zero.read
CSCapstone CopperSA · STK · FANeutralSupply-crack exhibit — its Mantoverde mine in Chile dealt with a strike in January, another disruption tightening mined supply.read

"View" reflects how each name was framed in this article (copper Positive = the thesis asset; the named miners Neutral = supply-crack data points), not a price rating. Built from the article's free/public portion; Prins's specific North American copper-producer recommendation is reserved for Pulse Premium subscribers. Research: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis.

2. Key points

The ICSG flipped — but the flip is a rounding error

1. Global copper supply is cracking

2. China is choking off the world's sulfuric-acid supply

3. The June 30 Lutnick report can only be bullish

4. The smart money already moved

What this means (free portion)

3. In plain English

A jargon-free summary of why each name is in the piece. (Plain-language companion to the table above; renders on each ticker's consolidated page.)

Copper — Copper (COMEX / LME) Positive

The official body that the copper industry relies on for forecasts (the ICSG) just changed its mind and said the world will have slightly more copper than it needs in 2026. Prins's point: the actual price of copper is sitting near an all-time high, which is the opposite of what you'd expect if there were a glut. When the forecast and the price disagree this sharply, she trusts the price — and lays out four reasons the forecast is wrong.

IVN — Ivanhoe Mines Neutral

Ivanhoe runs one of the world's highest-grade copper mines (Kamoa-Kakula). After an underground earthquake it had to cut how much copper it expects to produce in 2026 by roughly a quarter. Prins uses it as proof that real-world supply keeps shrinking — and its founder is publicly warning that some copper producers are nearly out of the acid they need to operate.

FCX — Freeport-McMoRan Neutral

Freeport's Grasberg is the second-biggest copper mine on earth, and its main underground section is shut down after a deadly mudslide — it won't restart for months. That's another huge chunk of supply offline, which Prins cites to show the shortage is getting worse, not better.

NGLOY — Anglo American Neutral

Anglo American is one of the five biggest miners in the world, and it just lowered how much copper it expects to produce in 2026 because of problems at its Chilean operations. It's one more concrete example in Prins's list of supply coming in below plan.

ANTO — Antofagasta Neutral

Antofagasta is a giant Chilean copper miner. The fee it normally charges (via smelters) to process ore has collapsed to zero — meaning smelters are so desperate for ore they'll process it for free. Prins reads that as a flashing signal that there isn't enough mined copper to go around, the opposite of a surplus.

CS — Capstone Copper Neutral

Capstone's Mantoverde mine in Chile was hit by a strike in January. It's a smaller example in Prins's roll-call of disruptions — strikes, blockades, accidents — that keep knocking copper supply offline and undercut the idea that the market is oversupplied.


Summary derived from the public (free) portion of the Prinsights Substack article for personal study. Not investment advice; the author's specific recommendation is paywalled. © Nomi Prins / Prinsights for source material.