Nomi Prins — The World Is Hoarding Copper at Rapid Pace (Prinsights, Aug 2026)

One-line take: the copper story has stopped being a mine-supply story and become a jurisdiction story — three of the largest players in the chain are each locking their portion of it inside their own borders while the market runs its widest deficit in two decades. The price: copper just hit a new record, with COMEX closing "around $6.66 a pound" and LME copper "near $14,100 a tonne," fast approaching her 2026 forecast of $7/lb. The deficit: Morgan Stanley projects refined copper runs a 600,000-tonne deficit in 2026, "the widest gap in more than twenty years," on declining ore grades (Chile, the largest producer, "keeps mining lower ore grades") and limited mine output — with "no substitute for copper at scale" in grids, EVs, data centers and modern weapons. DRC: the second-largest producer (~3.3Mt/yr) had an order signed June 29 become public on August 6 banning exports of copper and cobalt concentrate outright; the tonnage impact is small (Q1 2026: 696,725t of cathode shipped vs only ~54,000t of concentrate) but the precedent is systemic — it copies the Indonesia nickel model, forcing processing onshore to capture downstream value. London copper "jumped as much as 1.8% to $14,369.50 a tonne" when the news broke. China: refines "nearly half the world's copper" and buys "about two-thirds of the concentrate" feeding its smelters; on May 19, 2026 Beijing issued rules under its revised Mineral Resources Law naming copper a strategic mineral and letting the state hold reserves off-market for at least five years, with the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association reportedly pushing for a dedicated copper reserve on top of commercial stockpiles. It also cut the industry's reagent: since May 1 China has banned exports of sulphuric acid, used to produce "about a fifth of the world's refined copper" — Chile alone buys more than a million tonnes of Chinese acid a year. United States: the 50% tariff on semi-finished copper in place since April has drained metal from the rest of the world into American warehouses — more than 200,000 tonnes landed in July alone, "the fastest monthly import pace in twelve years," with COMEX plus U.S.-held LME inventories past 740,000 tonnes and another 110,000 in private port storage; the June 30 decision on whether to tariff refined copper — "the form American industries actually run on" — is in flux and overdue; and a July 30 presidential determination hands Commerce Defense Production Act power to block exports of critical minerals and recyclable copper scrap (copper was placed under that law by executive order in March 2025). The result: available LME inventory has fallen to ~94,200 tonnes — "little more than a day of global consumption" — from ~400,000 tonnes in April, with merchant trader Trafigura alone pulling more than 51,000 tonnes out of LME warehouses this year (its largest withdrawal since 2013) to sell into the U.S. tariff premium. The long horizon: S&P Global sees demand climbing ~50% to 42Mt by 2040 while mined output peaks near 33Mt by 2030 — a gap closable only by new mines "in countries where mining capital can get in, and copper can get out more freely." The pick is teased, not named: tomorrow's Founders+ monthly issue covers "a copper developer that sits on one of the largest undeveloped deposits in a jurisdiction that welcomes both investment and exports" — gated, and not captured here.

1. Stocks & names mentioned

This is a macro/commodity post: no individual company is rated. The actors are governments and agencies (the DRC, Beijing, the White House, the Commerce Department) and the analytical sources are forecasters (Morgan Stanley's 600kt deficit, S&P Global's 2040 demand curve) — none are stances, so none are tickered. Trafigura, the private metals trader, appears only as evidence of the arbitrage flow, not as a view. The one argued position is on copper the metal, carried below per this archive's commodity-row convention. The teased Founders+ copper developer (out tomorrow) is not named publicly and no ticker is inferred. The "read" link opens the article.

Ticker	Name	Research	View	What she said	At
Copper	Copper (COMEX / LME)	—	Positive	A new record high — COMEX ~$6.66/lb, LME ~$14,100/t — "fast approaching our 2026 forecast of $7 per pound," with a structural shortage from falling ore grades and limited mine output, a Morgan Stanley 600kt 2026 refined deficit (widest in 20+ years), and LME available stocks down to ~94,200t, "little more than a day of global consumption." Governments ringfencing supply (DRC export ban, China's strategic-mineral reserve and acid ban, the U.S. 50% tariff and DPA export-block power) "will continue to provide tailwinds to copper prices."	read

"View" reflects how the metal was framed (Positive = bullish on the commodity), not a price rating. Built from the free/public post; the Founders+ copper-developer recommendation drops the following day and is reserved for subscribers.

2. Key points

The price — a new record, closing on the $7 forecast

"Copper just hit a new record high, fast approaching our 2026 forecast of $7 per pound." The COMEX contract closed "around $6.66 a pound"; LME copper held "near $14,100 a tonne." (For context, the same author had copper at $6.43/lb nine days earlier in the Aug-3 minerals piece, against a May record of $6.71 — that record has now been taken out.)

The shortage is structural, not cyclical

The deficit is "driven by a combination of declining ore grades and limited mine output" — not by a demand spike that can fade.
Chile, "the world's largest copper producer, keeps mining lower ore grades." Her plain-English gloss: mines "extract massive amounts of rock… widening the net so that it can now contain a smaller concentration of the metal" — i.e. more rock, more energy, more water and more cost per tonne of finished copper.
Demand is non-optional: copper is "necessary" for "utility power grids, electric vehicles, data centers and modern weapons," and "there's no substitute for copper at scale." That is why governments keep adding it to critical/strategic minerals lists — "making it a national security imperative."

The number that frames the year — a 600,000-tonne refined deficit

"Morgan Stanley projected that refined copper should run a 600,000 tonne deficit in 2026, the widest gap in more than twenty years." That is the benchmark the policy moves below are landing on top of.

DRC — the door slams on concentrate exports

The Democratic Republic of the Congo is "the second-largest copper producer on earth, behind only Chile, at roughly 3.3 million tonnes a year." On August 6 an order the government had signed on June 29 became public: an outright ban on exports of copper and cobalt concentrate.
The immediate tonnage impact is small, because the DRC already refines most of its copper at home — Q1 2026 alone saw 696,725 tonnes of copper cathode shipped versus only about 54,000 tonnes of concentrate.
"But the broader ramifications of this move are systemic" — it signals "the trend toward future strategic restrictions on copper," and it explicitly follows "the model Indonesia implemented with nickel, forcing raw material to be processed inside the country to capture more of the value downstream."
The market voted immediately: "London copper jumped as much as 1.8% to $14,369.50 a tonne when that news broke."
Her generalization: "Based on our analysis and conversations with thought leaders around the world, we see a growing pattern of resource-rich countries pushing to retain processing and value domestically, which will continue to provide tailwinds to copper prices."

China — copper named a strategic mineral, reserves held off-market for five years

China's position in the chain: it "refines nearly half the world's copper and buys about two-thirds of the concentrate that feeds its smelters."
On May 19, 2026, Beijing issued rules under its revised Mineral Resources Law that "name copper a strategic mineral and let the state hold its reserves off the market for at least five years." That is inventory legally removed from price discovery, not merely warehoused.
The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association — the country's top trade body for copper, aluminum, lead, zinc and nickel — "is reported to be pushing for a dedicated copper reserve on top of the country's commercial stockpiles."

China's second lever — the sulphuric acid export ban

"China also cut off a chemical the rest of the industry needs to process raw copper." Since May 1, Beijing has banned exports of sulphuric acid, "which is used to produce about a fifth of the world's refined copper."
The exposure is concentrated where it hurts most: "Chile alone buys more than a million tonnes of Chinese acid a year." A reagent chokepoint constrains output at the world's largest producer without touching a single ore body.

United States — a 50% tariff that drains the world into American warehouses

Since April, the 50% U.S. tariff on semi-finished copper "has meant the draining of copper from the rest of the world and hoarding of it into American warehouses."
The scale of that relocation: "more than 200,000 tonnes hit U.S. ports in July alone, the fastest monthly import pace in twelve years"; combined COMEX stockpiles and U.S.-held LME inventories have "climbed past 740,000 tonnes, with another 110,000 tonnes in private port storage."
A live, unresolved catalyst: Washington "was supposed to rule by June 30 on whether to tariff refined copper as well, the form American industries actually run on. That decision is in flux and now overdue."

The export-block side — DPA power over critical minerals and copper scrap

On July 30, the President signed a determination handing the Commerce Department power under the Defense Production Act to block exports of critical minerals "and the recyclable copper scrap the country needs." (This is the same determination detailed in the Aug-3 piece, read here through the copper lens.)
Copper was placed under that law by executive order in March 2025 — so the legal machinery to hoard it domestically predates the tariff by more than a year.

The consequence — one day of visible inventory left

"Each of these decisions removes copper from the open market at the exact time that the world needs far more of it."
Available inventory in LME warehouses "has fallen to about 94,200 tonnes, little more than a day of global consumption, from around 400,000 tonnes in April" — a ~76% drawdown in roughly four months.

The arbitrage in action — Trafigura moves the metal to the premium

"Merchant traders make money by moving physical copper to wherever it sells for the most, and right now that is the U.S."
Trafigura, "one of the world's biggest metal traders, has pulled more than 51,000 tonnes out of LME warehouses this year, the largest withdrawal since 2013, and shipped it into the country to sell on COMEX at the tariff premium." The visible LME drawdown is therefore partly a relocation, which makes ex-U.S. scarcity worse than a global-inventory number would suggest.

The 2040 arithmetic — demand +50%, mine supply peaking in 2030

"S&P Global expects demand to climb about 50% to 42 million tonnes by 2040, while mined output peaks near 33 million tonnes by 2030." A ~9Mt structural gap opening a decade before the demand does.
Her conclusion is a development thesis, not a trading one: "Closing the gap between demand and mine supply requires finding and developing new mines. That means looking to countries where mining capital can get in, and copper can get out more freely." That sentence is the jurisdictional screen — the mirror image of the DRC/China/U.S. restrictions above.

Where she's pointing next — a gated copper developer, out tomorrow

The closing tease: the next Founders+ monthly issue, "which drops tomorrow, details actionable research on a copper developer that sits on one of the largest undeveloped deposits in a jurisdiction that welcomes both investment and exports. The public company is both well-positioned and meeting the moment."
The name, ticker and buy-up-to price are not disclosed publicly and are not captured here. It follows the copper/aluminum research focus pre-announced in the Aug-3 post.

3. In plain English

Copper — Copper (COMEX / LME) Positive

Copper is the wire in everything — power grids, EVs, data centers, weapons — and nothing else conducts electricity well enough to replace it at scale. The world is going to need a lot more of it, and the mines cannot deliver: the ore coming out of the ground keeps getting weaker (Chile now digs far more rock for the same copper), and no meaningful new supply arrives quickly. Morgan Stanley expects the refined market to come up 600,000 tonnes short in 2026 — the biggest shortfall in more than twenty years.

What is new in this post is not the shortage but who is now hoarding against it. Three of the biggest players in the copper chain each moved to keep their share inside their own borders. The DRC — the world's number-two producer — banned exports of unprocessed copper (and cobalt) concentrate, copying what Indonesia did with nickel: if you want our metal, refine it here and leave the profit behind. China, which refines almost half the world's copper, formally declared copper a "strategic mineral" and gave the state the right to lock reserves away from the market for five years at a stretch — and separately stopped exporting sulphuric acid, the chemical used to make roughly a fifth of the world's refined copper (Chile buys over a million tonnes of it from China every year). The United States put a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper, which has sucked metal across the ocean — over 200,000 tonnes landed in U.S. ports in July, the fastest pace in twelve years — and armed the Commerce Department with wartime-era powers to stop copper and copper scrap from leaving the country at all.

The effect of all that is visible in one number: copper freely available in London warehouses has collapsed to about 94,200 tonnes — roughly one day of world consumption — down from ~400,000 tonnes in April. Traders like Trafigura are accelerating it, physically shipping metal out of London to capture the U.S. tariff premium. So the metal is not just scarce; it is scarce in the wrong places, and each government action makes the open market thinner.

Prins' stance is straightforwardly bullish: copper just made a new record (~$6.66/lb on COMEX, ~$14,100/t in London) and is closing on her $7/lb 2026 target, and she expects resource nationalism to keep "providing tailwinds to copper prices." Her longer-horizon point is the one that matters for stock selection: S&P Global sees demand rising ~50% to 42 million tonnes by 2040 while mine output peaks around 33 million tonnes in 2030 — a gap that can only be closed by building new mines, and only in places where foreign capital is welcome and the metal is allowed to be exported. That jurisdictional filter is the screen behind her next (paywalled) recommendation: a copper developer on one of the largest undeveloped deposits in a country that permits both.

Summary derived from the free/public Prinsights post for personal study. Not investment advice. © Nomi Prins / Prinsights for source material.