Nomi Prins — Scott Melbye: "The Fundamentals Have Never Looked Better" (Uranium Energy / Uranium Royalty

One-line take: the mechanism behind the next uranium leg, told by the man who sits in the middle of it — the term market pulls spot, not the other way round. Melbye's core claim: spot has been "stuck at an $85 level" and is "a bit of a coiled spring," because the long-term market is already trading at $95 and utilities running long-term RFPs "are getting fewer and fewer offers and less quality offers in terms of price and flexibilities" — so "if they don't like what they see in the long-term market, their only option is to come to the spot," which he expects over $100/lb in 2H26. Prins agrees and puts Prinsights' own number on it: spot "should catch up to the $95–100 level," with a $110 target for this year — while noting the uranium equities have underperformed the commodity, "which is rare throughout the commodity space." Melbye's version: "UEC, URC are all trading well below where they should be given the fundamentals," against nuclear power doubling in the base case, likely tripling, or quadrupling on Trump's US goal, requiring a doubling-to-tripling of conversion and enrichment a market that "just isn't prepared" for. The corporate news: Uranium Royalty's announced $1.1B acquisition of Sweetwater Royalties from Orion Resource Partners and Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan — the original 1860 Union Pacific land grant, 5.3 million acres from Cheyenne to Salt Lake City plus the minerals and oil and gas underneath, making URC "the largest public company landowner in the United States, largest in Wyoming," sitting on ~90% of the world's soda ash and trona, with five operating mines already producing ~$74M EBITDA and $30–50M free cash flow (50/50 split with the Department of the Interior across a 10.6M-acre checkerboard; soda-ash revenue expected up 2.5× in five years, with uranium, oil & gas, helium, wind leases, data centres and battery storage as free options). The stated purpose is not a pivot: it funds the bridge until URC's 27 uranium royalties on 24 projects start throwing off $20–50M a year in the 2030s. Policy: the Russian uranium ban goes full force in January 2028; the administration's Defense Production Act consortium asked UPA to survey member capacity — 6M lb by end-2027 rising to 35M lb by 2033 ("a bit aspirational"; even 25–30M would replace imports); a Strategic Uranium Reserve is being lobbied for, carrying FAST-41 preferential permitting; and UEC is working on a 10,000-tonne domestic refining/conversion facility to close the one gap in the US fuel cycle — "we can't rely on just one 70-year-old facility in Illinois." Caveat to weigh: Melbye runs two of the three names discussed and lobbies for the third (the policy), so every figure here is management's or an industry association's; the Sweetwater deal is announced, not closed, and its economics rest on soda ash, not uranium.

1. Stocks & names mentioned

Ticker	Name	Research	View	What they said	At
UEC	Uranium Energy Corp	QT · SA · STK · FA	Positive	Melbye (EVP): "UEC, URC are all trading well below where they should be given the fundamentals." Building uranium mines "as fast as we can do it in two states," and working to build a 10,000-tonne domestic uranium refining and conversion facility to close the US fuel cycle's one missing gap — "we can't rely on just one 70-year-old facility in Illinois" — with "really good reception" at the Departments of War, Commerce and Energy and the White House. Note: the speaker is UEC's EVP.	watch ↗
UROY	Uranium Royalty Corp (guest says "URC"; UROY is the ticker)	QT · SA · STK · FA	Positive	Melbye (CEO): announced $1.1B acquisition of Sweetwater Royalties from Orion Resource Partners and Ontario Teachers' — the original 1860 Union Pacific land grant, 5.3M acres Cheyenne→Salt Lake plus the minerals beneath, making URC the largest public-company landowner in the US and the largest in Wyoming, on ~90% of world trona/soda ash with five mines already at ~$74M EBITDA / $30–50M FCF. Explicitly "not to pivot away from uranium" but to fund the bridge until its 27 royalties on 24 projects cash-flow $20–50M/yr in the 2030s; the stock trades "well below where they should be." Prins: "the stock right now is very, very undervalued." Note: the speaker is URC's CEO.	watch ↗
Uranium	Uranium (commodity)	—	Positive	Melbye: spot "stuck at an $85 level" is "a bit of a coiled spring" — the long-term market at $95 will pull spot up, because utilities' long-term RFPs are drawing "fewer and fewer offers and less quality offers," leaving spot as their only option; he sees >$100/lb in 2H26 and "a very long, sustained bull market." Prins concurs: it "should catch up to the $95–100 level," with a Prinsights $110 target for this year. Policy behind it: the Russian import ban at full force in January 2028, a DPA survey putting US capacity at 6M lb by end-2027 → 35M lb by 2033, and a lobbied-for Strategic Uranium Reserve with FAST-41 permitting.	watch ↗
Sweetwater	Sweetwater Royalties (private — being acquired by Uranium Royalty Corp)	—	Positive	The asset being bought for $1.1B: the original Union Pacific 1860 land grant, 5.3M acres from Cheyenne to Salt Lake City with all minerals, oil and gas underneath; ~90% of the world's soda ash and trona, five operating mines producing 50 years with a 250-year mine life at "lowest quartile of cost globally," ~$74M EBITDA and $30–50M FCF, production split 50/50 with the Department of the Interior across a 10.6M-acre checkerboard. Soda-ash revenue expected up 2.5× over five years, with uranium, oil & gas, helium, wind leases, data centres and battery storage as unpriced optionality.	watch ↗
Orion	Orion Resource Partners (private)	—	Neutral	Co-seller of Sweetwater Royalties in the $1.1B transaction — named as the vendor alongside Ontario Teachers'; no view expressed on the firm itself.	watch ↗
Ontario Teachers	Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan (private)	—	Neutral	Co-seller of Sweetwater Royalties alongside Orion Resource Partners — a pension-fund owner exiting a long-held US land-and-royalty package; no view expressed on the plan itself.	watch ↗

"View" reflects how each name was framed in this interview, not a price rating. The Uranium Producers of America (industry association Melbye presides over) and the 10,000-tonne UEC conversion facility are talking points, not investable entities, so they get no rows. Research: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis. This is a video interview embedded in a Substack post — there are no timestamps, so the "At" cells open the post itself.

2. Talking points

Setting the scene — three hats, one commodity that won't move

Prins opens live from the Rick Rule Symposium in Boca Raton with "one of my favorite people in the commodity space": president of the Uranium Producers of America, an executive at UEC, and CEO of Uranium Royalty Corp — "UROY is the ticker — so many acronyms about your esteemed career."
Her framing of the puzzle: uranium has stayed "in this higher but pretty solid 85 range where all these other commodities are moving all about."

The irony: nuclear news everywhere, equities pulled back

Melbye: "There's so much going on with nuclear right now, which is kind of ironic because the uranium equities have kind of been pulled back."
He puts $85 in cycle context: "I'm old enough to remember $7, $8, $9, $10 a pound uranium in the darkest bear market. So we're excited."

The core mechanism — the term market pulls the spot price up

"The spot uranium price is a bit of a coiled spring right now… I think the spot price is going to be pulled up by activity in the long-term price. Already the long-term market is trading at $95."
Why: "utilities are going out for long-term proposals soliciting offers from miners and producers, and they're getting fewer and fewer offers and less quality offers in terms of price and flexibilities and everything else."
The forced conclusion: "if they don't like what they see in the long-term market, their only option is to come to the spot… we'll see spot prices over $100 a pound" in the second half of this year.

What the two companies are doing about it

UEC: "We're building uranium mines as fast as we can do it in two states."
URC: "Uranium Royalty is really growing to be the capital provider to new miners and developers, not just in the US, but globally."

The $1.1B Sweetwater acquisition — a 166-year-old land grant

"Our biggest recent news is our announced acquisition of Sweetwater Royalties for $1.1 billion from Orion Resource Partners and Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan."
What it is: "the original Union Pacific land grant that the federal U.S. government gave to the railroad in 1860 to build the Transcontinental Railroad" — 5.3 million acres from Cheyenne all the way to Salt Lake City, "and more importantly, all the minerals and oil and gas underneath that."
The resulting status: "We're the largest public company landowner in the United States, largest in Wyoming."

Soda ash and trona — the cash flow that isn't uranium

"On that land lies 90% of the world's soda ash and trona deposits, which is a key ingredient in glass."
"Five operating mines… already generating EBITDA of around $74 million a year and free cash flow in the range of $30 to $50 million."
The stated purpose: "not to pivot away from uranium or nuclear, but to provide the financial strength and cash flows to really turbocharge our acquisitions of additional royalties and streams in the uranium space."

Prins presses the commitment question

Prins: "that's what I was really interested in, because you're keeping your core commitment to uranium."
Melbye: "I would be the last person on earth to pivot away from nuclear at this moment."

The cash-flow bridge — why a non-uranium asset was necessary

"It's very hard to find uranium royalties that would generate that kind of cash flow between now and 2030."
The portfolio behind it: "27 royalties on 24 projects… it starts to cash flow on the $20 to $50 million a year annual level in the 2030s."
So the deal is a bridge: "We just wanted to do something to really lift our financial power to go out and build the uranium portfolio between now and then."

Asset quality — 50 years produced, 250-year life, lowest-quartile cost

"These assets have been producing for 50 years. They have 250-year mine life, lowest quartile of cost globally."
The federal partnership: "we basically get half of the production. It's split with the Department of the Interior."

The checkerboard — meeting Secretary Burgum over July 4th

"I met with Secretary Burgum over the 4th of July weekend, and we discussed how we're partners on 10.6 million acres of land because it's a checkerboard. Every other quarter section is our land and Department of the Interior BLM land."
Interior's interest: "he's happy to hear that we're going to work the land, not just for trona and soda ash, but all the uranium potential across southern Wyoming, just south of the Great Divide Basin, also oil and gas and critical minerals, including helium."

The free options on 5.3 million acres

"We have leases for wind farms, potential for data centers, battery storage."
The one number he'll put on it: "the soda ash revenues are expected to increase by two and a half times over the next five years. But then when you take the optionality of the value of the rest of the land, we're really excited."

Prins' price target — and the equity/commodity disconnect

Prins agrees on the metal: it "should catch up to the $95 to $100 level. We actually have a target of 110 for this year."
The anomaly she flags: "some of these stocks and share prices in the uranium space have actually underperformed, which is rare throughout the commodity space" relative to the commodity itself — "it seems the stock right now is very, very undervalued relative to that."

"Trading well below where they should be" — the symposium message

"I think most people buy into the thesis for nuclear and uranium supply and demand. And really, UEC, URC are all trading well below where they should be given the fundamentals."
The demand arithmetic: "nuclear power is doubling in the base case, likely to triple, or President Trump's goal of quadrupling in the US. That's going to rely on a doubling or tripling of uranium conversion enrichment. And our market just isn't prepared."
The time frame he'll commit to: "you're not going to have to wait… we go into December 31st and your uranium equities are up significantly over where they are today."

The legislation — ADVANCE Act, the Russian ban, and January 2028

Prins sets it up: the ADVANCE Act a few years ago, the Prohibiting Russian Uranium Imports Act in 2024, and "in January 2028… that ban really becomes full force as opposed to having some loopholes around it."
Melbye: "it's critically important" — the administration is "looking to the domestic industry to ramp up, to get us off of that Russian dependency and not fall dependent on Chinese imports."

The DPA survey — how many pounds could America actually produce?

"As part of the Defense Production Act consortium activities, [the administration] has asked the Uranium Producers of America to survey its members to indicate how much could you produce under strong market conditions and support of public policy — which I'll argue we have both right now."
The answer: "as high as 6 million pounds" by the end of next year, "but by 2033, it goes up to 35 million pounds. Okay, that's a bit aspirational… but even if it's 25 to 30 million, that would coincidentally replace what we're [importing]."

Strategic Uranium Reserve and FAST-41 permitting

"Things like a Strategic Uranium Reserve is something that we're lobbying for."
Why it matters beyond the buying: "that brings with it all the preferential FAST-41 permitting and licensing and all the stuff that's going to help us get to that 25, 30 million pounds a year."

The missing link — conversion, and one 70-year-old plant in Illinois

"The critical missing gap there is conversion, but our company UEC is engaging in efforts to build a 10,000 metric ton domestic uranium refining and conversion facility, which will close that gap."
The fragility it fixes: "We can't rely on just one 70-year-old facility in Illinois to meet our needs. We need another facility of equal or larger size."
Washington's reception: "really good reception within the Department of War, Department of Commerce, Energy, White House… it feels like they're going through the whole periodic table and deciding which are the most urgent to fund."

The defense argument that sits underneath the energy one

"It's the Naval Propulsion Program — our aircraft carriers and navies depend on it."
"But also the energy security of all this buildout or quadrupling of nuclear power. Got to have the fuel cycle to go with it."

3. In plain English

Uranium — the commodity Positive

Uranium trades in two separate markets. The spot price is what a pound costs for immediate delivery — it is thin, easily pushed around, and has been parked around $85 all year. The long-term (term) market is where utilities actually buy: multi-year contracts signed years ahead of the fuel being loaded into a reactor. That market is already at $95. Most people watch the spot price and conclude nothing is happening; Melbye's argument is that the causality runs the other way.

Here's the mechanism. A utility runs a request for proposals asking miners to bid on supplying pounds over the next decade. What Melbye sees is that the bids coming back are fewer and worse — fewer producers willing to commit, at higher prices and with less flexibility on volumes and timing. A utility that doesn't like what it sees has exactly one alternative: buy in the spot market instead. But the spot market is small, so utility-sized buying there moves the price hard. That is why he calls spot "a coiled spring" and expects it above $100 in the back half of 2026. Prins agrees on direction and puts Prinsights' own target at $110 for the year.

Behind the price sits an arithmetic problem. Nuclear generating capacity is set to double in the conservative case, and the US administration's stated goal is to quadruple it. Fuel doesn't scale automatically with reactors — you also need conversion and enrichment capacity to double or triple, and that capacity takes years and hasn't been built. On top of that, the 2024 law banning Russian uranium imports has been softened by waivers until January 2028, when it bites in full and roughly a fifth of the fuel Western utilities have been relying on has to come from somewhere else. Washington has begun preparing: it asked the industry association Melbye chairs to survey how many pounds American miners could produce under favourable conditions — 6 million by the end of 2027, up to 35 million by 2033 — and a Strategic Uranium Reserve is being lobbied for, which would come with fast-tracked federal permitting (FAST-41).

UEC — Uranium Energy Corp Positive

UROY — Uranium Royalty Corp Positive

A royalty company doesn't dig anything up. It pays cash upfront for the right to a slice of a mine's future production or revenue, forever, without having to fund the mine's cost overruns. It's a way to own exposure to a commodity while owning none of the operating risk. Uranium Royalty is the only one of these focused on uranium, and it holds 27 royalties across 24 projects.

Its problem is timing. Those royalties are mostly attached to projects that won't be in production for years — the portfolio starts generating $20–50 million a year in the 2030s. Between now and then it earns little, which makes it hard to keep buying new royalties, exactly when uranium prices are rising and developers most need capital. That gap is what the $1.1 billion Sweetwater acquisition solves: it buys a bundle of assets that pay cash today so the company can keep writing uranium cheques through the lean years. Melbye is explicit that this is a bridge, not a change of direction: "I would be the last person on earth to pivot away from nuclear."

What Sweetwater actually is makes it unusual. It is the original 1860 land grant the federal government gave the Union Pacific to build the Transcontinental Railroad — 5.3 million acres running from Cheyenne to Salt Lake City, including everything beneath the surface. That makes URC the largest public-company landowner in the United States. The land holds roughly 90% of the world's trona, the ore for soda ash (used in glass), with five mines already running at ~$74M of EBITDA and $30–50M of free cash flow, split 50/50 with the Department of the Interior across an interleaved "checkerboard" of federal and private sections. Soda-ash revenue is expected to rise 2.5× over five years, and everything else on the acreage — uranium across southern Wyoming, oil and gas, helium, wind leases, data-centre and battery-storage sites — is optionality nobody has paid for.

The risks to hold in mind: the deal is announced, not closed, and a $1.1B purchase by a small royalty company has to be financed somehow — the dilution or debt terms decide whether shareholders actually gain. The near-term cash flow is industrial chemicals, not uranium, so the stock now carries a soda-ash cycle it didn't have before. And the speaker is the CEO.

Sweetwater Royalties — the acquired land package Positive

Sweetwater is a private royalty and land business, owned by the investment manager Orion Resource Partners and Canada's Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan, being sold to Uranium Royalty for $1.1 billion. Its value comes from a historical accident: in 1860 Congress paid the Union Pacific to build the Transcontinental Railroad partly in land, handing over alternating square-mile sections along the route. That grid — the "checkerboard" — survives today, so the private owner and the federal Bureau of Land Management own interleaved squares across 10.6 million acres, and the production from them is split roughly in half.

What sits under the acreage is a genuine near-monopoly resource: about 90% of the world's trona, the natural ore that becomes soda ash, an input to glass, detergents, lithium processing and much else. Five mines have been producing there for 50 years, have a stated 250-year reserve life, and sit in the cheapest quartile of global cost — the sort of asset that survives every downturn. It throws off roughly $74 million of EBITDA and $30–50 million of free cash flow annually, with soda-ash revenue forecast to grow 2.5× in five years.

Everything else on the land is a free option in the buyer's telling: uranium potential across southern Wyoming just south of the Great Divide Basin, oil and gas, helium (a genuinely scarce critical gas), plus surface uses — wind-farm leases already signed, and potential data-centre and battery-storage sites, which is exactly where the money is going in Wyoming right now. None of that has to work for the soda-ash cash flow to pay; all of it is upside if it does.

Summary derived from the Prinsights Global Spotlight video interview for personal study. Not investment advice. © Nomi Prins / Prinsights for source material.