Nomi Prins — Oil Ruled the 20th Century, Here's Why Rare Earths Will Define the 21st (Prinsights, Feb 2026)

One-line take: a guest macro/geopolitical essay Prins invited from Brazilian economist Roberto Georg Uebel. The thesis: rare earths and ~two dozen critical minerals are becoming the new axis of great-power competition. The US committed ~$1.6B (Jan 26) then a $12B package (Feb 2, incl. a stockpile with $10B EXIM seed funding); China announced up to $15B (Oct 17, 2025); Russia is building Central-Asian supply partnerships; Brazil (world's #2 reserves) and Europe are the swing players. Governments now treat these minerals as sovereignty, not freely-traded commodities — control over them is a new form of financial, economic and military power. No specific tickers; a thematic/positioning piece.

1. Stocks & names mentioned

A top-down geopolitical essay — no individual companies are named as picks; the "names" are the strategic commodities themselves. "View" reflects how each was framed. The "At" link opens the article. Research: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis.

Ticker	Name	Research	View	What she said	At
Rare Earths	Rare earths / critical minerals	—	Positive	The new oil. The US committed ~$1.6B (Jan 26) then a $12B package (Feb 2, with a stockpile seeded by $10B from EXIM); China announced up to $15B (Oct 2025); Russia is building Central-Asian/Caucasus partnerships. Governments treat ~two dozen critical minerals as sovereignty, not tradable commodities — control is a new form of power. Brazil (world's #2 reserves) and Ukraine/Europe are key swing arenas.	read
Gold	Gold	—	Positive	Framed as still the primary store of value after the US dollar — the anchor above the emerging "next tier" of strategic critical-mineral assets.	read
Silver	Silver	—	Positive	Named alongside gold as the established strategic asset that sits above the next tier of ~two dozen critical minerals now being treated as instruments of national power.	read

"View" reflects how each was framed (Positive = a strategically-scarce, policy-driven asset), not a price rating. A thematic essay — no individual stock recommendations. Research: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis.

2. Key points

Wartime-level spending on rare earths

On Jan 26, 2026 the US committed ~$1.6B to rare-earth/critical-mineral research, extraction and downstream manufacturing; on Feb 2 it went further with a $12B package including a strategic stockpile backed by $10B of EXIM seed funding. That's wartime-level money on materials most investors never think about — and a tell about where the next front of great-power competition is.

All the great powers are moving at once

China announced up to $15B in critical-minerals investment (Oct 17, 2025), leveraging the world's largest reserves and dominant processing. Russia — sitting on rare-earth deposits rivaling its oil/gas — is building supply-chain partnerships across Central Asia and the Caucasus (Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan) and eyeing Iran, the Arctic and Greenland. Read Venezuela/Iran/Greenland headlines through this minerals lens.

Brazil and Europe are the swing players

Brazil holds the world's #2 rare-earth reserves and is using it as leverage — Lula's March Washington visit puts rare earths central (Brazil wants up to $1.2B in US investment while resisting Chinese exclusivity); BRICS/Mercosur ties let it play all sides. Europe is squeezed between Sino-Russian pressure (and Ukraine's reserves) and a US posture on Greenland/the Arctic that has rattled transatlantic trust.

What it means for investors

Beyond gold (the primary store of value after the dollar) and silver, the next tier of strategic assets is ~two dozen critical minerals. Governments treat them as sovereignty, not commodities trading — "chemistry has never mattered more" to international relations or to portfolio construction. Position on the right side of the race now.

3. In plain English

A jargon-free summary of why each name is in the piece. (Plain-language companion to the table above; renders on each ticker's consolidated page.)

Rare Earths Positive

Rare earths are a set of obscure metals that go into magnets, electronics, weapons and clean-energy gear. The guest writer's argument is that they're becoming the 21st-century equivalent of oil — the resource great powers fight to control. Governments are throwing huge sums at them: the US pledged about $1.6 billion and then a $12 billion package within a week, China announced up to $15 billion, and Russia is locking up supply deals abroad. The key shift is that countries now treat these minerals like national-security assets rather than ordinary commodities, which the writer sees as a long-term opportunity for investors who position early. (No specific stock is named — it's a big-picture theme.)

Gold Positive

In this essay gold is treated as the established king — still the main store of value after the US dollar. The new critical minerals are described as a "next tier" of strategic assets sitting beneath gold and silver, not replacing them. So the piece reinforces gold's role even while making the case for the rising importance of rare earths.

Summary derived from the Prinsights Substack article (a guest essay by Roberto Georg Uebel) for personal study. Not investment advice. © Nomi Prins / Prinsights for source material.