Nomi Prins — 5 Rare Earth Charts to Watch Now
Five charts that tell the real story of the rare earths market in 2026 — China's grip, defense dependence, and a policy-set price floor.
One-line take: rare earths are entering a new bull market — China still controls ~70% of mined output and ~90%+ of processing, the US military is critically dependent (an F-35 needs 418kg of rare earths, a Virginia-class sub 4,600kg), and the Pentagon's $110/kg price floor on NdPr (via its MP Materials stake) has put a "price put" under the market, with prices up ~41% in 2026 so far. Prins frames the floor + breakout + restocking cycle as the start of a multi-year hard-asset rotation. Note: this page is built from the article's free/public portion; Prins's specific gold/silver royalty recommendation is reserved for paid (Founders+) subscribers, so no single buy recommendation is captured here.
1. Stocks & names mentioned
Prins writes a top-down rare-earth-supply thesis illustrated with five charts; the only named equity is the US producer behind the federal price floor. "View" reflects how each name was framed. The "At" link opens the article. Research: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis.
| Ticker | Name | Research | View | What she said | At |
|---|
| MP | MP Materials | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | The clearest beneficiary of the policy floor — the Pentagon's deal sets a $110/kg floor on NdPr; massive government funds are flowing to it, and prices have nearly doubled off that level (up ~41% in 2026). | read |
| Rare earths (NdPr / Ga / Yt) | Rare earth elements complex | — | Positive | A new bull market: China controls ~70% of mining and 90%+ of processing; US is 100% import-reliant on several (gallium, yttrium); a CME futures contract and restocking cycle point prices higher. | read |
"View" reflects how each name was framed in this article (Positive = beneficiary of the rare-earth scarcity/policy thesis), not a price rating. Built from the article's free/public portion; Prins's specific recommendation is reserved for Founders+ subscribers. Research: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis.
2. Key points
I. The "diversification" challenge
- Despite years of rhetoric and subsidies, China still controlled nearly 70% of global mined rare earth production in 2024. US and Australian output has ticked up but remains a fraction of Beijing's. That dominance lets China set the global pricing "thermostat" — flooding to crush competitors or choking supply to squeeze foreign industry.
II. The Achilles' heel of US military might
- An F-35 needs 418kg of rare earths to fly and target; a Virginia-class submarine needs ~4,600kg for sonar and drive motors. Over 70% of those imports effectively originate from a geopolitical rival. In a conflict, supply chains become weapons — so the DoD will keep buying domestic rare earths at premium prices (e.g. MP Materials).
III. The breakout signal
- After the 2021 volatility and the 2023–24 slump flushed out weak hands, the technical picture shows a classic bottoming-and-breakout pattern, driven by a restocking cycle as governments and businesses secure inventory ahead of further export controls. Combined with defense/energy demand, the path of least resistance is higher — the start of a new bull market.
IV. The weaponization of trade
- A CFR scorecard shows the US is 100% import-reliant on arsenic, gallium, graphite, tantalum and yttrium. In 2024–25 China placed controls on gallium, germanium and antimony — targeted strikes at US semiconductor and defense industries. The "export controls" column reads as a list of catalysts for domestic producers and recyclers, who will see fast-tracked permitting and funding.
V. The floor is in
- The Pentagon's pledge to take a stake in MP Materials if prices fell below $110/kg created a "price put." Since the July 2025 deal, prices have held and nearly doubled (+41% in 2026). A potential CME rare earth futures contract in 2026 would let institutional capital gain exposure without a warehouse — financialization that typically brings liquidity and upside volatility. The smart money is positioning now.
3. In plain English
A jargon-free summary of why each name is in the piece. (Plain-language companion to the table above; renders on each ticker's consolidated page.)
MP — MP Materials Positive
MP Materials runs the only big rare earth mine in the US (Mountain Pass, California). Rare earths are the special metals that make magnets for fighter jets, EV motors and missiles work. China makes almost all of them, so the US government struck a deal guaranteeing MP a minimum price of $110 per kilogram for its key magnet ingredient — a "price floor." That floor is like a safety net under the stock: it caps the downside while demand and prices push the upside higher. Prins uses MP as the concrete example of Washington putting real money behind rebuilding a US rare earth supply chain.
Rare earths — the metals complex Positive
Rare earths are a group of 15+ metals (plus cousins like gallium and yttrium) that go into magnets, chips and defense hardware. China dominates both mining and the much harder refining/processing step, so it can turn supply on and off like a weapon. Prins argues we're at the start of a multi-year price uptrend: governments are scrambling to build their own supply, a US price floor is already in place, and a new futures market could pull in big investors. For her, the takeaway is that companies controlling these physical inputs will command a premium as the world shifts from "cheapest source" to "secure source."
Summary derived from the public (free) portion of the Prinsights Substack article for personal study. Not investment advice; the author's specific recommendation is paywalled. © Nomi Prins / Prinsights for source material.