Nomi Prins — The Rare Earth Scramble: Washington's $1.6B Mine-to-Magnet Bet
February Pulse Premium issue — the recommendation: USA Rare Earth (USAR), the only Western company building a full mine-to-magnet chain, just backed by $1.6B in federal funding.
One-line take: the February Pulse Premium recommendation is USA Rare Earth (USAR) — building North America's first commercial-scale rare-earth permanent-magnet facility (Stillwater, OK) plus the Round Top heavy-RE deposit (TX) and the LCM alloy maker (UK), the only true mine-to-magnet chain outside China. The Commerce Department just committed $1.6B ($277M grants + $1.3B loan) for an 8–16% equity stake. The stock is ~$20, down ~48% from its ~$39 October peak and below its ~$25 level of a month ago — before the federal backing. Action: buy USAR up to $26. Disclosure noted in the piece: Prins sits on the board of Meteoric Resources, a separate Australia-listed rare earth developer.
1. Stocks & names mentioned
The full February issue: USAR is the rated recommendation; MP Materials is the US benchmark/context; Meteoric Resources is a board-disclosure. "View" reflects how each was framed. The "At" link opens the article. Research: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis.
| Ticker | Name | Research | View | What she said | At |
|---|
| USAR | USA Rare Earth | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | The recommendation — the only Western mine-to-magnet company (Stillwater OK magnet plant + Round Top TX heavy-RE deposit + LCM UK alloys); $1.6B federal funding (8–16% equity stake), first magnet line live Q1 2026. Buy up to $26 (stock ~$20, down ~48% from its ~$39 Oct peak). | read |
| MP | MP Materials | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | The ~$10B US benchmark — only integrated rare earth producer, with the $110/kg DoD floor that became the template; targeting just ~1,000 tons of magnets this year vs China's ~300,000, illustrating the scale gap USAR aims to close. | read |
| MEI | Meteoric Resources | STK · FA | Neutral | Board disclosure — the Australia-listed rare earth developer (Caldeira project, Brazil) where Prins has served on the board since June 2024; cited as her personal conviction that the whole rare earth supply chain must be re-evaluated, not as the recommendation. | read |
"View" reflects how each name was framed in this article (USAR = the rated buy; MP = benchmark/context; Meteoric = board-disclosure). Research: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis.
2. Key points
The dangerous dependence
- China controls ~60% of rare earth mining, ~91% of refining, ~94% of magnet production — and ~99% of heavy-RE processing (Dy, Tb), with no commercial substitutes. In April 2025 it imposed export controls on seven heavy REs; in October it claimed extraterritorial jurisdiction (any product anywhere using Chinese RE tech needs a license). The suspension runs to Nov 10, 2026, but the April controls remain in force.
The policy backdrop
- Li Qiang's Feb-11 inspection tour signaled Beijing's intent ahead of the April Trump-Xi summit; Rubio (Munich, Feb 14) called deindustrialization "a conscious policy choice" and called for a Western critical-minerals supply chain. Two countdowns run at once: the Nov-2026 suspension expiry and the April summit.
Equity stakes, price floors, $30B
- The July-2025 MP Materials deal (equity stake + $110/kg NdPr floor + 10-yr offtake) became the template. The US has now taken positions in six critical-minerals companies and mobilized $30B+ in six months — including Project Vault (a $12B stockpile with GM, Boeing, GE Vernova, Alphabet) and the FORGE 54-country bloc proposing coordinated price floors. The direction of those floors is higher, not lower.
Why USAR is different — magnets first, then mining
- USAR flipped the usual playbook: it acquired the only commercial-scale US magnet equipment (310,000 sq ft, Stillwater OK), commissioned its Innovations Lab (Jan 2025) and is already making prototype magnets. First production line online Q1 2026 (1,200 t/yr, scaling to 5,000 t/yr).
Securing the supply chain
- USAR controls Round Top (West Texas) — the only significant heavy-RE deposit in the Western Hemisphere (Dy, Tb, Y plus lithium, gallium, hafnium), commercial production targeted late 2028. To bridge to then, it acquired LCM (UK, Sept 2025), the only proven NdFeB metal/alloy maker at scale outside China — making the combined USAR-LCM the only true mine-to-magnet operation outside China.
The $1.6B federal backing
- January 2026 LOI for $1.6B ($277M grants + $1.3B CHIPS Act senior secured loan) — the largest federal RE infrastructure package in US history — for an 8–16% government equity stake; plus a separate DOE/NETL LOI on heavy-RE separation. USAR has also raised $1.5B in private capital alongside it.
Catalysts and risks
- Catalysts: defense supply contracts, automaker (Tesla/GM/Ford) partnerships, international expansion via LCM (incl. France), continued policy momentum. Risks: execution (commissioning, Round Top ramp, LCM integration), commodity price risk if China floods the market, permitting, and the non-binding nature of the LOI.
The price & the action
- USAR ~$20, up 77% YoY but down ~48% from its ~$39 October peak and below ~$25 a month ago — and that was before the $1.6B was committed. A return to $25 is +25%; to $39 a near-double. Action: buy USAR up to $26.
3. In plain English
A jargon-free summary of why each name is in the piece. (Plain-language companion to the table above; renders on each ticker's consolidated page.)
USAR — USA Rare Earth Positive
USA Rare Earth is building the whole rare earth supply chain inside friendly borders: a magnet factory in Oklahoma, a deposit in Texas that holds the rare "heat-proof" metals, and a UK alloy maker it bought. That makes it the only company outside China that can go from rock to finished magnet. The big news is the US government committing $1.6 billion and taking an ownership stake — a strong vote of confidence. The stock has fallen roughly in half from its peak even though that government money came after the drop, so Prins sees the price as attractive. Her advice: buy it up to $26 a share (it's around $20), knowing it will be a bumpy, long-build story.
MP — MP Materials Neutral
MP Materials is the established US name — it runs America's only big rare earth mine and got the original government price-floor deal that everyone else's deals now copy. Prins uses it as the yardstick: MP is targeting about 1,000 tons of magnets this year while China makes 300,000, which shows how far the US has to go. It's context for the USAR pick, not the recommendation itself.
MEI — Meteoric Resources Neutral
Meteoric Resources is an Australia-listed company developing a rare earth project in Brazil. Prins discloses she has sat on its board since 2024 because she believed the world would have to rebuild the rare earth supply chain. She mentions it for transparency about her personal involvement — it is not the stock she's recommending this month.
Summary derived from the Prinsights Pulse Premium Substack issue for personal study. Not investment advice. Disclosure (per the article): the author serves on the board of Meteoric Resources. © Nomi Prins / Prinsights for source material.