The piece is built around the five commodities (listed below, no ticker); a few companies are cited as supply context (a stalled US smelter, the US rare-earth processor, a PGM petitioner, a US lithium project), not as buy/sell ratings. "View" reflects how each was framed. The "At" link opens the article. Research: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis.
| Ticker | Name | Research | View | What she said | At |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aluminum | Aluminum (commodity) | — | Positive | Closed near $3,000/ton (+20%, highest since 2022) on physical supply constraints; power is 30-40% of cost so high prices don't spur smelting, no major new smelters short-term, and Euro 7 lightweighting could lift demand — sees prices elevated further. | read |
| Palladium | Palladium (commodity) | — | Positive | +76% in 2025 to $1,607/oz (3-yr high $2,022 in Dec) on supply-diversification/jurisdiction concerns (Russia + South Africa dominate) and strong catalytic-converter demand; sees upside plus diversified mining locations. | read |
| Rare Earths | Rare earths — NdPr (commodity) | — | Positive | NdPr +50% to ~$87/kg on Chinese export restrictions + US policy (the $110/kg floor under MP Materials' 10-yr deal); China still controls >90% of NdPr processing, so pricing reacts to policy more than fundamentals — bullish on REE and ex-China mining/processing. | read |
| Lithium | Lithium (commodity) | — | Positive | +5% to just under $15,000/ton — stabilizing after inventory overhangs cleared and marginal producers exited; stationary storage now the swing demand (cell output +30-40% in 2026). Sees upside but no near-term return to historic highs. | read |
| Cobalt | Cobalt (commodity) | — | Positive | +70% to $24.20/lb (from a 20-yr low of $14) on DRC export disruption (the source of >70% of supply); the DRC's export cap/quota and the Mar 31, 2026 old-quota cutoff should keep prices "volatile and tightly bid" — sees the DRC lock as positive for prices. | read |
| MP | MP Materials | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | Cited as the US rare-earth processor at the center of the NdPr story — its 10-yr deal set an above-market $110/kg US price floor, and its separation facility could ramp mid-2026, though ex-China capacity stays well below need. | read |
| CENX | Century Aluminum | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | Cited as a US supply data point — its Mt. Holly plant isn't due to reach full production until June 2026, illustrating how little new aluminum smelting is coming online short-term. | read |
| SBSW | Sibanye-Stillwater | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | Cited as the palladium catalyst — its petition to restrict Russian flows into the US could resolve in March 2026; until then it adds volatility to palladium prices. | read |
| LAC | Lithium Americas | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | Cited via its Thacker Pass project — new US lithium supply (Thacker Pass Phase 1 + smaller TX/PA projects) has slipped to 2027 and totals <1% of the global market, underscoring how China-dominated (60-70% of refining) the lithium chain remains. | read |
"View" reflects how each was framed (Positive = a commodity Prins sees asymmetric upside in; Neutral = a company cited as supply context), not a price rating. Built from the article's free/public portion; specific stock picks and buy-up-to prices are reserved for Pulse Premium / Founders+ subscribers. Research: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis.
A jargon-free summary of why each commodity is a "dark horse." (Plain-language companion to the table above; renders on each name's consolidated page.)
Aluminum is made by melting ore with enormous amounts of electricity — power is 30-40% of the cost. So even when aluminum gets pricey, smelters can't easily make more because their power bills eat the profit, and building or even restarting a smelter takes months to years. With almost no new smelting capacity coming and carmakers using more aluminum to make lighter cars, Prins expects prices to stay high.
Palladium goes into the catalytic converters that clean gasoline and hybrid car exhaust. It jumped 76% last year because most of it comes from just two countries — Russia and South Africa — and any threat to those supplies (sanctions, US trade probes) sends the price up. With hybrids selling well and stricter Euro 7 rules requiring more of it per car, Prins sees more upside, and favors miners outside the risky Russia/South Africa concentration.
NdPr is a blend of two rare-earth metals used to make the powerful permanent magnets inside EV motors, wind turbines and defense gear. The problem is China controls over 90% of the processing, so when Beijing tightens or loosens exports, prices swing on policy more than on real supply and demand. The US is fighting back — it set a guaranteed $110/kg price floor for MP Materials to build domestic supply — but the West is years from enough processing capacity. Prins is bullish on rare earths and on companies trying to build that supply outside China.
Lithium powers the batteries in EVs and, increasingly, the big batteries that store electricity for the grid. Prices crashed and have now bottomed out (up only 5% last year) as oversupply cleared and weak producers quit. The new growth story is grid storage, not just cars — battery-cell output is set to rise 30-40% this year. Prins sees lithium recovering, but warns it won't shoot back to its old record highs anytime soon. (US supply is still tiny and delayed to 2027; China refines 60-70% of it.)
Cobalt is a key ingredient in high-performance EV and aerospace batteries, and more than 70% of it comes from one country — the Democratic Republic of Congo. The DRC banned, then capped, its exports to push prices up, and cobalt has already jumped 70%. A grace period lets buyers use leftover 2025 export permits until the end of March 2026, so Prins expects a rush (and rising prices) into that deadline. As long as the DRC keeps a tight grip on supply, she sees it as good for prices.
Summary derived from the public (free) portion of the Prinsights Substack article for personal study. Not investment advice; the author's specific recommendations are paywalled. © Nomi Prins / Prinsights for source material.