Nomi Prins — The Fed vs The White House: Why Gold Is the Clear Winner
Why the collision between the White House and the Federal Reserve — plus QT's end and geopolitical chaos — is a bullish setup for gold.
One-line take: a macro/monetary piece — Prins argues the Trump-Powell collision is "rocket fuel for gold." A DOJ grand-jury subpoena over the Fed's $2.5B HQ renovation is really pressure on monetary-policy independence; markets read it as a more accommodative chair after Powell's May exit (easier money, weaker dollar). The Fed cut to 3.50-3.75% in December (a 9-3 vote, most dissents since 2019) but is now "stuck" between sticky 2.7% inflation and a cooling labor market (just 50k Dec jobs). QT is over and the Fed is buying $40B/mo in T-bills (short-end liquidity, near-QE), while a record $75B year-end repo spike signals bank stress. With Venezuela/Greenland/NATO turmoil adding safe-haven demand, gold at $4,616 "isn't expensive — it's still underpriced." Note: this page is built from the article's free/public portion — Prinsights' specific picks (incl. the Founders+ junior gold miner it references) are reserved for paid subscribers, so no individual buy call is captured here.
1. Stocks & names mentioned
A macro piece — no individual equities are named. The two names below are the commodities the thesis turns on (gold, with silver as a companion). The "At" link opens the article.
| Ticker | Name | Research | View | What she said | At |
|---|
| Gold | Gold (commodity) | — | Positive | "The clear winner" — at ~$4,616 (+70% y/y) it's "still underpriced" for the monetary/geopolitical turmoil ahead; Fed-independence pressure, the end of QT + T-bill buying, and safe-haven demand all point higher. Central-bank buying forecast at 1,050+ tons in 2026. | read |
| Silver | Silver (commodity) | — | Positive | Has nearly doubled since late October to ~$90; Prins frames silver (with gold) not as a bubble but as a "rational response to monetary instability, geopolitical posturing and dollar weakness." | read |
"View" reflects how each commodity was framed (Positive). Built from the article's free/public portion; Prins's specific recommendations (including the Founders+ junior gold miner this piece references) are reserved for paid subscribers. Mining companies "with beneficial geography, the right resources and cost structures" are flagged as the beneficiaries — but no individual ticker is named here.
2. Key points
The Trump-Powell battle goes "nuclear"
- On Jan 11, Powell confirmed the DOJ served the Fed with grand-jury subpoenas over his testimony about the $2.5B Eccles Building renovation. Prins reads the renovation as a pretext — the real grievance is that policy hasn't been loose enough. Gold surged past $4,630 on the news, pricing in a more accommodative chair after Powell's May exit (easier money, more liquidity, a weaker dollar).
The Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place
- December cut: 25bp to 3.50-3.75% on a 9-3 vote (most dissents since 2019). It can't cut aggressively with inflation stuck at 2.7% (core PPI +3.5%, the biggest 12-mo rise since March 2025), yet can't stay restrictive with the labor market cooling (50k Dec jobs; only 584k for all of 2025, worst since 2020). Market now sees a January hold and just 1-2 cuts for 2026. "This policy paralysis is where gold thrives."
QT is over and T-bill buying is back
- The Fed is now buying $40B/mo in T-bills to maintain bank reserves — not technically QE but still short-end liquidity. Three years of QT drained $2.43T (from ~$9T to ~$6.6T, still ~$2T above the post-2008 peak). A record $75B year-end repo spike (Dec 31) signals banking-system stress; 84% of 2025 issuance was T-bills, an issuance pattern that will force the Fed toward easier policy — bullish for gold.
Geopolitical chaos accelerates safe-haven demand
- Venezuela (US toppled leadership in early 2026), Iran, China-Taiwan, and a new Greenland threat / NATO-Europe trade war all spur safe-haven flows. Central banks have been net buyers for years; JPMorgan sees ~755 tons in 2026, but Prins forecasts another 1,050+ ton year.
The bottom line
- Surface growth looks strong (Atlanta Fed tracking Q4 GDP at 5.3%) but masks persistent inflation, a cooling labor market, a pressured Fed, fiscal deficits and geopolitical risk. In that environment "hard assets are the only place to be" — gold at $4,616 "isn't expensive. It's still underpriced." Miners with the right geography, resources and cost structures are the clear beneficiaries.
3. In plain English
A jargon-free summary of why gold (and silver) carry the thesis. (Plain-language companion to the table above; renders on each name's consolidated page.)
Gold Positive
Gold is winning a tug-of-war between the White House and the Federal Reserve. The President is pressuring the Fed (even using a legal investigation) to cut interest rates faster, and markets bet that whoever replaces Fed chair Powell in May will print easier money and let the dollar weaken — which historically pushes gold up. On top of that, the Fed has stopped shrinking its balance sheet and is quietly pumping cash into the system again, and global crises (Venezuela, Greenland, NATO friction) send nervous money into gold. Add central banks buying ~1,000 tons a year, and Prins argues gold near $4,600 is still cheap for all the uncertainty ahead.
Silver Positive
Silver has nearly doubled since late October to around $90. Critics call that a bubble; Prins disagrees — she says it's a logical reaction to an unstable dollar, money-printing and global turmoil, the same forces lifting gold. In short, she sees silver's surge as rational, not speculative froth.
Summary derived from the public (free) portion of the Prinsights Substack article for personal study. Not investment advice; the author's specific recommendations are paywalled. © Nomi Prins / Prinsights for source material.