Nomi Prins — Gold Miners Are Running Out of Gold

Record output that has gone nowhere

• Global gold mine output hit a record 3,672 tonnes last year — but the number has barely moved in years, essentially flat with 2022, 2023 and 2024 and only just above the previous record of 3,663t set in 2018, even though gold's price has nearly tripled since then.
• When the price of your product nearly triples and output barely moves, something is broken — and in gold mining what's broken is the pipeline underneath.

The discovery pipeline has collapsed

• The major producers have been depleting reserves faster than replacing them for over a decade, despite spending billions on exploration and scouring every prospective belt on every continent — the rate of major new gold discoveries has fallen to near zero.
• S&P Global puts the average time from discovering a new deposit to producing first metal at about 18 years, versus six in the 1980s. Any deposit found today, even a world-class one, probably won't produce its first ounce until the mid-2040s — and the industry isn't even finding enough to fill that timeline.

Investment demand is surging — led by central banks

• Central banks — the biggest gold investors — bought more than 1,000 tonnes in each of 2022, 2023 and 2024; they added 863t last year and another 244t in Q1-2026 alone.
• It's not just central banks: physical bar and coin buying hit a 12-year high near 1,374 tonnes, and pension funds, insurers and sovereign wealth funds are moving into allocated gold they can hold. Total gold demand passed 5,000 tonnes for the first time ever in 2025.

Supply is standing still while demand climbs

• All of that is happening while supply is basically flat: the miners are running faster just to stay in place, and the reserve base underneath them keeps shrinking.
• The world is consuming gold faster than it can find and develop new sources of it — the core structural imbalance of the post.

The structural story got lost in Q2's price action

• Gold had its worst quarter since 2013 in Q2, with headlines all about Fed hike bets and dollar strength; coming off a stellar 2025, some respite was probably in order.
• But underneath the noise the structural problem hasn't changed — that's what the headlines aren't reporting.

The majors' answer: buy what they can't find

• When you can't find it, you buy it. Since 2024, nine major gold takeovers have committed more than $24 billion, part of a broader mining deal wave near $139 billion — the busiest since 2011.
• The largest producers are acquiring developers and explorers at progressively earlier stages — buying drill results, economic studies and permitted deposits rather than waiting for production — because the alternative is watching their reserve base shrink while the gold price keeps rising. Companies that haven't poured a single ounce are attracting multi-billion-dollar bids; the acquirers need the ounces.

Scarcity value accrues to buildable developers — the gated pick

• Every deal that closes removes one more buildable project from the market, lifting the scarcity value of whoever is left. The companies that already control defined gold resources in stable, buildable jurisdictions are exactly what the majors need and can't find on their own anymore.
• This week's Prinsights Founders+ issue recommends a U.S. gold developer that fits the setup — existing infrastructure, economic studies already in hand, and a growing underground discovery that keeps getting bigger with each drill program, trading at a fraction of what buyers have paid for similar assets. The name, buy-up-to price and risk assessment are gated to Founders+ subscribers and are not captured here.