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Nomi Prins — The Copper Supply Problem No One Can Fix in Time

A supply crunch the market hasn't priced — and a wave of premium-priced copper takeovers as the smart-money tell.
2026-JUN-10 · Prinsights (Substack) · Nomi Prins (ex-Goldman Sachs MD; Prinsights Global) · newsletter · ↗ Read on Substack
One-line take: the world faces a copper supply problem "no one can fix in time" — building a new mine takes well over a decade, while existing supply is being lost (First Quantum's Cobre Panama shut since late 2023 = ~350k tons / ~2% of global output; Anglo American has cut guidance on permitting/water). The tell that the squeeze is real: a wave of premium-priced M&A as miners scramble to buy copper they can no longer build — Eldorado Gold paid ~C$3.8B for Foran Mining, BHP + Lundin paid ~C$4.1B for Filo Corp, and Hudbay is taking out Arizona Sonoran at a ~30% premium. Note: this page is built from the article's free/public portion — Prins's specific pick and "buy-up-to" price are reserved for her paid (Founders+) subscribers, so no single buy recommendation is captured here.

1. Stocks & names mentioned

Prins writes a top-down copper-supply thesis; the names below are cited as evidence — acquirers deploying capital into copper, premium-priced targets, and the disrupted producers behind the supply loss — not as individual buy/sell ratings (her actual pick is paywalled). "View" reflects how each was framed in the piece. The "At" link opens the article. Research: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis.

TickerNameResearchViewWhat she saidAt
EGOEldorado GoldQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveA gold miner buying its way into copper — paid ~C$3.8B for Foran Mining to secure one of Saskatchewan's largest base-metals deposits; an acquirer positioning for the copper squeeze.read
BHPBHP GroupQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveThe biggest miner is racing to lock up future copper — paid ~C$4.1B (with Lundin) for Filo Corp; aggressive M&A is the smart-money confirmation of the scarcity thesis.read
LUNLundin MiningSA · STK · FAPositiveBHP's partner on the ~C$4.1B Filo Corp deal — consolidating scarce, large-scale copper-gold development assets ahead of the supply gap.read
HBMHudbay MineralsQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveA mid-tier copper producer paying up for supply — taking out Arizona Sonoran Copper at a ~30% premium; confidence that copper assets are worth chasing.read
FOMForan MiningSA · STK · FANeutralThe Saskatchewan base-metals developer Eldorado is acquiring (~C$3.8B) — cited as evidence: the deal itself shows buyers will pay up for scarce copper development.read
ASCUArizona Sonoran CopperSA · STK · FANeutralHudbay's ~30%-premium takeover target — the premium itself signals how scarce permitted US copper development has become.read
FMFirst Quantum MineralsSA · STK · FANeutralSupply-loss exhibit — its Cobre Panama mine has been shut since late 2023, removing ~350k tons (~2% of global copper) from the market.read
NGLOYAnglo AmericanSA · STKNeutralAlready cut copper production guidance on permitting and water constraints in key regions — part of the supply problem "no one can fix in time."read

"View" reflects how each name was framed in this article (Positive = an acquirer/validator of the copper-scarcity thesis; Neutral = a target or supply-loss data point), not a price rating. Built from the article's free/public portion; Prins's specific recommendation and buy-up-to price are reserved for Founders+ subscribers. Research: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis.

2. Key points

A supply problem you can't fix in time

Existing supply is being lost, not added

The M&A wave is the smart-money tell

The takeaway (free portion)

3. In plain English

A jargon-free summary of why each name is in the piece. (Plain-language companion to the table above; renders on each ticker's consolidated page.)

EGO — Eldorado Gold Positive

Eldorado is mainly a gold miner, but it just spent ~C$3.8 billion to buy Foran Mining — a company sitting on one of Saskatchewan's biggest base-metals (copper-rich) deposits. Prins reads that as a gold miner deliberately buying its way into copper because it sees a shortage coming. When a company pays billions to get copper in the ground rather than try to build a mine from scratch, it's voting with its wallet on scarcity.

BHP — BHP Group Positive

BHP is the world's largest miner. Together with Lundin it paid ~C$4.1 billion for Filo Corp, a copper-gold developer. Prins uses this as the clearest "smart money" signal: the biggest, best-informed player in the industry is racing to lock up future copper supply now, which only makes sense if it expects copper to get much tighter and more valuable.

LUN — Lundin Mining Positive

Lundin teamed up with BHP on that ~C$4.1 billion purchase of Filo Corp. Two serious miners splitting the bill to grab a single copper project underscores the same point: large, build-ready copper deposits are rare enough that companies will pay a premium and share the cost to secure them.

HBM — Hudbay Minerals Positive

Hudbay, a mid-sized copper producer, is buying Arizona Sonoran Copper for about 30% more than its market price. Paying a 30% premium is a strong statement — Hudbay clearly thinks owning more copper (especially permitted US copper, which is hard to get approved) is worth far more than the stock market currently assumes.

FM — First Quantum Minerals Neutral

First Quantum owns Cobre Panama, a giant copper mine that's been shut down since late 2023 (a government/legal dispute). That took roughly 350,000 tons of copper — about 2% of the entire world's supply — off the market in one stroke. Prins isn't rating the stock; she's using it to show how easily big chunks of copper supply can vanish, which tightens the market.

NGLOY — Anglo American Neutral

Anglo American is a major diversified miner that has already cut how much copper it expects to produce, blaming permitting delays and water shortages in key mining regions. It's another concrete example in the piece of supply coming in lower than hoped — reinforcing the idea that the copper shortfall "can't be fixed in time."


Summary derived from the public (free) portion of the Prinsights Substack article for personal study. Not investment advice; the author's specific recommendation is paywalled. © Nomi Prins / Prinsights for source material.