Nomi Prins — China Just Blacklisted America's Two Top Rare Earth Companies
China put ten U.S. firms on its export-control list — and two of them are the exact companies Washington is funding to replace Chinese rare-earth supply. The tit-for-tat is now hitting the alternatives.
One-line take: China's Ministry of Commerce added ten U.S. companies to its export-control list, and the two that matter most here are MP Materials (MP) — operator of Mountain Pass, the only U.S. rare-earth mine, with a Pentagon stake and price floor — and Prins's own recommendation USA Rare Earth (USAR), building a magnet plant in Oklahoma. "China is now squeezing a company Washington itself is funding." The order bans Chinese dual-use exports to those firms and reaches beyond China's borders (no one anywhere may route Chinese-origin material to them) — so Beijing is attacking the very supply chain meant to replace it. The other eight are defense names (Oshkosh Defense, Ball Aerospace, L3Harris Maritime, drone makers Red Cat and Teal Drones); a separate order barred 46 U.S. firms from Chinese government procurement. Prins's read: the Nov 10 truce (the one-year suspension from the Busan summit) is now "much in doubt," and every escalation raises the value of the few producers building supply outside China — China still mines ~70% and refines ~90% of rare earths, the Pentagon has committed >$2.5B, and a single F-35 needs ~900 lbs of rare earths. The specific Pulse Premium pick (a February model-portfolio rare-earths producer) is paywalled; MP and USAR are named in this free post.
1. Stocks & names mentioned
A rare-earths supply-chain note. The two named, central equities are below; the eight blacklisted defense names (Oshkosh Defense, Ball Aerospace, L3Harris Maritime, Red Cat, Teal Drones) are cited only to show the breadth of China's order and are covered in the key points, not rated here. "View" reflects how each was framed in the piece; the "At" link opens the article. Research: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis.
| Ticker | Name | Research | View | What she said | At |
|---|
| USAR | USA Rare Earth | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | Her February model-portfolio recommendation — building a magnet plant in Oklahoma. China just added it to the export-control list, which (in her framing) confirms it as a strategic asset: Beijing is targeting the exact ex-China supply Washington is counting on, raising its value with every escalation. | read |
| MP | MP Materials | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | Runs Mountain Pass, the only operating U.S. rare-earth mine; the Pentagon took a direct stake last year and set a price floor. China blacklisting "a company Washington itself is funding" makes the U.S. push to build domestic supply more urgent, not less — strategic value rises as the fight escalates. | read |
"View" reflects how each name was framed in this article (Positive = a strategic ex-China rare-earth asset whose value rises as the supply-chain fight escalates), not a price rating. Built from the public post; Prins's specific Pulse Premium rare-earths recommendation (a February model-portfolio producer) is reserved for subscribers. Research: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis.
2. Key points
China blacklisted ten U.S. firms — two are the rare-earth alternatives
- China's Ministry of Commerce added ten U.S. companies to its export-control list. The two that matter most for this thesis: MP Materials (Mountain Pass, the only operating U.S. rare-earth mine — Pentagon stake + price floor) and USA Rare Earth (USAR) (building an Oklahoma magnet plant), Prins's own recommendation. "China is now squeezing a company Washington itself is funding."
- The other eight are defense names — among them Oshkosh Defense, Ball Aerospace, L3Harris Maritime, and drone makers Red Cat and Teal Drones. The same day, China's finance ministry barred 46 American companies from Chinese government procurement.
The order reaches beyond China's borders
- The new order bans the export of Chinese dual-use goods to those firms and bars anyone in any country from routing Chinese-origin material to them. "That's the part that matters" — the companies Washington is counting on to wean the U.S. off Chinese rare earths are now direct targets. "What China is doing today is going after the very supply chain meant to replace it."
- Beijing framed it as retaliation for the U.S. widening its Chinese-military-companies blacklist on June 9 — part of an "increasingly fierce fight for the entire rare-earth supply chain."
The November 10 truce is now in doubt
- After the October Busan summit (Trump–Xi), China suspended some of the sweeping rare-earth controls it announced Oct 9, 2025 for one year; in return the U.S. paused threatened tariffs. But that truce never lifted a separate set of controls China imposed in April 2025 — "the leverage here belongs to China." A May Beijing summit produced no rare-earth deal.
- November 10 — when the one-year suspension expires — is "the date to watch." Today's escalation "makes it far harder to see Beijing renewing it," and the suspension can be "switched off as fast as it was switched on."
China mines 70% and refines 90% — and processing is the real chokepoint
- China controls roughly 70% of mining and close to 90% of processing. There's no quick Western substitute for the heavy rare earths (dysprosium, terbium) that go into permanent magnets for EVs, wind turbines, missiles and military drones.
- A single F-35 needs ~900 lbs of rare-earth materials; the Pentagon has committed >$2.5B to rebuilding a domestic chain "still years from scale."
Why the blacklist is bullish for the builders
- "Every escalation does the same thing. It raises the value of the supply being built outside China and the few producers building it" — which is why the blacklisted names are "strategic assets in this fight." Prins expects the supply-chain warfare to keep moving up and down the value chain (mine → magnet) "and only intensify from here," and reaffirms the thesis extends to "many more metals," including one in this week's monthly issue.
3. In plain English
A jargon-free summary of why each name is in the piece. (Plain-language companion to the table above; renders on each ticker's consolidated page.)
USAR — USA Rare Earth Positive
Rare earths are 17 metals used in the powerful magnets inside electric-car motors, wind turbines, missiles and drones. China controls almost the whole supply, especially the processing step that turns ore into usable magnets. USA Rare Earth is one of the handful of American companies trying to build that capability at home — it's putting up a magnet plant in Oklahoma — and it's Prins's recommended way to play the trend.
China just added USA Rare Earth to a list of companies it won't sell to (and won't let anyone else funnel Chinese material to). That sounds like bad news, but Prins reads it the opposite way: China is attacking it precisely because it's one of the few credible alternatives, and Washington is pouring money into exactly these firms. The more the fight escalates, the more valuable a working ex-China supplier becomes.
MP — MP Materials Positive
MP Materials runs Mountain Pass in California — the only rare-earth mine actually operating in the United States. The Pentagon took a direct ownership stake last year and guaranteed a minimum price for its output, so the U.S. government is effectively a backer.
China putting MP on its blacklist means it's "squeezing a company Washington itself is funding." Prins's point is that this only sharpens America's urgency to build its own supply, and makes the one mine that's already running more strategically important — not less. It's named here as the marquee example of the ex-China producers whose value rises every time the trade war over rare earths heats up.
Summary derived from the Prinsights Substack post (text in transcript.txt) for personal study. Not investment advice; the author's specific Pulse Premium recommendation is paywalled. © Nomi Prins / Prinsights for source material.