Nomi Prins — DC Is Bankrolling This Critical Metal It Can't Mine or Make
A three-week tungsten follow-up: Japan's supply has just collapsed, Washington is committing billions to build a chain outside China — and the processing bottleneck is harder to solve than the mining gap.
One-line take: a follow-up to the early-June tungsten piece — and the squeeze has tightened. Japan's tungsten supply has collapsed: Samsung, SK Hynix and TSMC were formally notified they've lost access to the tungsten-hexafluoride gas that wires advanced memory and AI chips. The Rotterdam APT (ammonium paratungstate) benchmark now trades at ~9× a year ago; the U.S. hasn't commercially mined tungsten since 2015. China mines ~80%, holds 53% of reserves, has cut its mining quota three years running, narrowed export licenses to just 15 firms for 2026–27, and its APT exports fell 69% in 2025 to ~zero by Jan–Feb. The real chokepoint is processing (China refines >80%) — a non-China mine is useless without a non-China processor, which "barely exists." Washington is now funding a chain from scratch: a $15.8M Pentagon stake in the Mactung project (Yukon), $1.6B EXIM/DFC Letters of Interest for a Kazakh project, another $240M for a second. Iran-war missile use (850+ Tomahawks, 40 PrSMs) drains tungsten-bearing stockpiles CSIS says take 3+ years to rebuild; the Pentagon is legally barred from China-sourced tungsten from Jan 1, 2027. Prins: the dip from the March high is "temporary," and a July 13 Section 232 deadline could open a bigger supply gap the market hasn't priced. This week's Pulse Premium June issue names the producer best positioned — that pick is paywalled and not captured here.
1. Stocks & names mentioned
A single-theme critical-metals note. The rated "name" is the metal itself, tungsten (the producer pick is paywalled). Chipmakers TSMC, Samsung and SK Hynix are named only as the demand-side casualties of Japan's supply cut-off — at-risk context, not rated picks — and are covered in the key points. "View" reflects how tungsten was framed; the "At" link opens the article.
| Ticker | Name | Research | View | What she said | At |
|---|
| Tungsten (APT) | Tungsten | — | Positive | The squeeze has tightened since early June: Japan's supply collapsed (Samsung/SK Hynix/TSMC cut off), Rotterdam APT ~9× year-ago, China refines >80% so processing is the real chokepoint, and Washington is funding an ex-China chain (Mactung, two Kazakh projects). The dip from the March high is "temporary"; the July 13 Section 232 deadline could widen the gap. Rewards the few producers that can both mine and process outside China. | read |
"View" reflects how tungsten was framed in this article (Positive = a structurally short critical metal with a federal-funding tailwind), not a price rating. Built from the public post; Prins's specific Pulse Premium producer pick is reserved for subscribers. Chipmakers named (TSMC, Samsung, SK Hynix) appear as demand-side context only.
2. Key points
Japan's tungsten supply just collapsed — chipmakers cut off
- Three weeks after the early-June tungsten piece, Japan's supply has collapsed: Samsung, SK Hynix and TSMC were formally notified they no longer have access to the tungsten-hexafluoride gas that wires their advanced memory and AI chips. Japanese makers of that gas — ~a quarter of global supply — warned of production risk after China cut off their tungsten powder.
The price and the U.S. production gap
- The Rotterdam benchmark for ammonium paratungstate (APT) — what Western buyers use outside China — now trades at nearly 9× a year ago. The U.S. hasn't commercially mined tungsten since 2015, when the last producer closed under pressure from China's cheaper chain.
- Why it's irreplaceable: tungsten has the highest melting point of any metal — nothing else matches it in armor-piercing rounds, drill bits, machine tools or microchip interconnects.
China's grip — and the quota cuts
- China mines ~80% of the world's tungsten and holds 53% of reserves. It narrowed its export list to just 15 firms for 2026–27; Chinese APT exports fell 69% in 2025 to about zero in Jan–Feb; and it barred tungsten exports to Japan for military/defense use in January (Japan had been 57% of Chinese APT exports). Chinese buyers are now bidding up tungsten scrap in American yards.
- China has cut its first-batch mining quota three years running (2025: 58,000 t, down 4,000 t) — a structural deficit forecasters expect to last much of the decade. Even a new Western mine breaking ground today reaches market no sooner than 2030.
The real chokepoint is processing
- China refines >80% of the world's tungsten — the step that turns concentrate into the APT, powders and carbides industry buys. "A non-Chinese mine is only useful to a Western buyer if there is a non-China processor available to take the concentrate. That barely exists." The processing bottleneck is harder to solve than the mining gap.
Washington is committing billions to replace it
- Dec 2024: the Pentagon put $15.8M into the Mactung tungsten project in Canada's Yukon. Aug 2025: the DLA began testing the market for ~1,700 t of ores/concentrates for the National Defense Stockpile. Nov 2025: EXIM + the DFC issued $1.6B in Letters of Interest for a Kazakh project. Feb 2026: EXIM signaled another $240M for a second Kazakh project, conditioned on all output shipping to the U.S.
The Iran-war demand shock and the legal clock
- In the first weeks of U.S. operations against Iran, the military fired 850+ Tomahawk cruise missiles (nine years of typical Navy procurement) and 40+ Precision Strike Missiles (~45% of the stockpile). Each PrSM disperses thousands of tungsten pellets; Tomahawks use tungsten heavy alloy in the warhead; Patriot and THAAD use tungsten in the kill vehicle. CSIS (Apr 21) concluded rebuilding Tomahawk/Patriot/THAAD stockpiles takes 3+ years.
- On June 11, Trump invoked the Defense Production Act to fix "systemic constraints in the munitions industrial base" — every rebuilt missile needs tungsten. And from Jan 1, 2027, the Pentagon won't legally be able to source tungsten from China across the upstream chain.
The demand picture and the catalyst
- Semiconductor-equipment sales are forecast to climb from $145B in 2026 to $156B in 2027, and ultrafine tungsten wire for slicing solar wafers adds thousands of tonnes of new annual demand — none with an easy substitute. Prins's read: the slip from the March high is "temporary and largely offers an opportunity," and a July 13 Section 232 deadline could open a bigger supply gap "the market has not priced in yet." This rewards the few producers that can both mine and process outside China.
3. In plain English
A jargon-free summary of why tungsten is the focus. (Plain-language companion to the table above; renders on the consolidated page.)
Tungsten — Tungsten (APT) Positive
Tungsten is the metal with the highest melting point on the periodic table, which makes it essential for things nothing else can do — the tips of armor-piercing missiles, cutting tools, and the tiny wiring inside computer chips. China mines about 80% of it and, more importantly, does more than 80% of the refining that turns raw ore into usable material. "APT" (ammonium paratungstate) is the standard refined form whose price everyone watches; outside China it now costs roughly nine times what it did a year ago.
The problem just got worse: China cut Japan off, which knocked out the supply that chipmakers like TSMC, Samsung and SK Hynix rely on. Because the U.S. stopped mining tungsten in 2015 and can't quickly rebuild — especially the refining step — Washington is throwing money at mines and processors in Canada and Kazakhstan, and the Pentagon is legally banned from buying Chinese tungsten starting in 2027 even as the Iran war burns through tungsten-laden missiles. Prins's takeaway: the recent price dip is a temporary lull inside a multi-year shortage, and the companies that can both mine and process tungsten outside China are the winners. (Her specific stock pick is behind the paywall.)
Summary derived from the public (free) portion of the Prinsights Substack article for personal study. Not investment advice; the author's specific producer recommendation is paywalled. © Nomi Prins / Prinsights for source material.