Nomi Prins — JUNE ISSUE - The Tungsten Producer Poised to Benefit From the Squeeze
The monthly Pulse Premium single-pick issue names the play on the tungsten chokepoint: Almonty Industries (ALM) — the only major Western-aligned producer that both mines and processes tungsten outside China, with U.S. defense offtake at a hard floor price.
One-line take: the Pulse Premium JUNE ISSUE turns the tungsten squeeze into a named pick — Almonty Industries (NASDAQ: ALM / TSX: AII), rated Positive, buy up to $22. Her thesis: China refines >80% of the world's tungsten and has cut its mining quota three years running; APT (the Rotterdam benchmark) trades ~9× year-ago; high-purity Chinese powder exports to Japan have hit zero, and on July 1 two Japanese chemical makers stop producing the WF6 gas that wires AI/memory chips (Samsung, SK Hynix, TSMC warned). Because Washington's funding (Mactung, the Kazakh projects) produces nothing before ~2030, the few producers already mining and processing outside China are the only sellers a Western defense or chip buyer can reach. Almonty is the largest such producer — flagship Sangdong (South Korea) now producing (Phase 1 commissioned Mar 2026; Phase 2 in 2027 doubles output to ~40% of non-Chinese supply), plus Panasqueira (Portugal) and a permitted Montana asset — with a binding TPW U.S.-defense offtake at a hard floor price, ~$260M cash, and Russell 1000 inclusion June 29. Catalysts: the Section 232 report due July 13 and the Jan-1-2027 DFARS rule barring Chinese-origin tungsten from defense supply chains. Risks she names: execution (Sangdong still ramping), dilution (shares +~49%, $700M converts), tungsten-price volatility, and single-commodity concentration.
1. Stocks & names mentioned
A single-pick monthly issue: the only rated security is Almonty (ALM); the surrounding names (Japan's chemical makers, the chip foundries, U.S. agencies) are policy/demand context, not investable picks, so they live in the key points below. "View" reflects how each was framed; the "At" link opens the article. Research: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis.
| Ticker | Name | Research | View | What she said | At |
|---|
| ALM | Almonty Industries | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | The pick (buy up to $22): the largest Western-aligned tungsten producer and the only major one that mines and processes outside China — flagship Sangdong (S. Korea) now producing, a TPW U.S.-defense offtake at a hard floor price, ~$260M cash, joining the Russell 1000 June 29, with Section 232 (July 13) and the 2027 DFARS rule as catalysts. | read |
"View" reflects how Almonty was framed in this issue (Positive = the rated buy-up-to pick), not a price rating. This is the Pulse Premium monthly issue, read in full — the specific name and buy-up-to price are captured here. Research: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis.
2. Key points
The immediate trigger: a chip-grade tungsten cutoff
- China's exports of high-purity tungsten powder to Japan have dwindled to zero over the past year. On July 1, two Japanese chemical makers (Kanto Denka, Central Glass) stop producing the tungsten-hexafluoride (WF6) gas that wires advanced memory and AI chips — Samsung, SK Hynix and TSMC have been warned.
- Japan imports over 90% of its high-purity tungsten from China, and the gas price has risen more than 200% this year.
The metal has been repriced from boring to strategic
- The Rotterdam APT benchmark (what Western buyers pay outside China) sits at ~$3,000–$3,140 per metric ton unit as of early June — off slightly from its May $3,140 peak, but still up nearly nine times versus a year ago.
No new Western supply before 2030
- China sets the market by decree and has cut its first-batch mining quota three years running (2025: 58,000 tons of concentrate, down 4,000 from 2024). A new mine takes a decade-plus; consensus is no meaningful new Western supply before 2030.
- Washington has funded supply that produces nothing before the end of the decade: $15.8M into Mactung (Yukon, Dec 2024); the DLA testing the market for ~1,700 tonnes for the National Defense Stockpile (Aug 2025); up to $1.6B in Letters of Interest for a Kazakhstan project (Nov 2025). So the few producers already outside China are the only sellers a Western buyer can access — Chinese traders are even bidding up worn scrap in U.S. yards.
Demand is rising on three fronts at once
- Semiconductors (tungsten wires memory/AI chips; equipment sales forecast $145B in 2026 → $156B in 2027); defense (rebuilding munitions depleted in Iran — Tomahawk, Patriot, Precision Strike Missile all use tungsten); tech/solar (ultrafine tungsten wire for slicing silicon wafers).
- June 11, 2026: Trump signed a Defense Production Act memorandum on the munitions base; an April 21 CSIS analysis put the return to prewar inventory at three-plus years (Tomahawk warheads, PrSM pellets, Patriot PAC-3 / THAAD kinetic kill all carry tungsten).
The real chokepoint is processing, not mining
- China refines >80% of the world's tungsten — turning concentrate into APT, powders and carbides. Most concentrate mined elsewhere is still shipped to China to be processed. A miner that can't process hasn't detached from China; the only supply that counts is a company that mines and processes outside China.
The policy catalysts: Section 232 (July 13) and the 2027 DFARS rule
- On Jan 14, 2026, Trump ordered Commerce and USTR to negotiate critical-mineral trade deals and report back within 180 days (tungsten included) — the report lands July 13. If talks fall short, Washington can pursue tariffs, minimum import prices, quotas, or further Section 232 action.
- A Pentagon DFARS rule effective Jan 1, 2027 bars Chinese material from defense work at every step (mining, refining, separation). The EU is building its first joint stockpile.
The company: Almonty Industries (ALM)
- Co-founded 2011 by Lewis Black and Daniel D'Amato; active mines on two continents, a U.S. defense offtake at a hard floor price, joining the Russell 1000 (June 29), ~$260M cash. Flagship Sangdong (S. Korea) is producing today.
- Sangdong: Phase 1 commissioned Mar 2026 — plant handles ~640,000 t ore/yr for ~2,300 t concentrate/yr; Phase 2 (2027) doubles to ~4,600 t/yr (~40% of non-Chinese global supply) as throughput doubles to 1.2M t ore/yr. Panasqueira (Portugal): producing 125+ years, owned outright, steady cash. Gentung Browns Lake (Montana): a permitted, advanced U.S. deposit; Valtreixal (Spain) earlier-stage.
- Defense offtake: a May 2025 binding deal with Tungsten Parts Wyoming (TPW) to supply ≥40 t/month of tungsten oxide for U.S. defense at a hard floor price, no cap — fitting the 2027 DFARS requirement exactly.
- Team: CEO Lewis Black owns ~8M shares (>$130M); D'Amato ~12.6M (largest individual holder; ex-Bear Stearns MD). Board added Gen. Gustave Perna (Ret.; Operation Warp Speed logistics, Mar 2025) and Alan Estevez (ex-Commerce export-control architect, May 2025). New CFO Jorge Beristain, CFA (June 1).
The numbers and the risks
- Q1 2026 revenue $25.4M (+221% Y/Y); adjusted EBITDA +$6.1M; operating cash flow $9.7M. Headline net loss $5.3M, but $8.4M was non-cash warrant/derivative revaluation — underlying operations already profitable. Cash $259.9M (vs $7.8M end-2024), from a $90M NASDAQ-listing raise (Jul 2025), a $129M offering (Dec), and a $700M convertible (settled June 9; 2.25%, due 2031, ~$27.40 conversion). Funded for Sangdong Phase 2.
- Risks: execution (Phase 1 still ramping; a Phase 2 delay past 2027 hurts); dilution (shares +~49% over a year, plus the $700M converts); tungsten-price volatility (APT off its May peak); single-commodity concentration.
Price & valuation; the call
- ~$4.6B market cap on ~$100M annualized revenue — priced on what Sangdong becomes. The stock ran from single digits (early 2025) to a ~$23.50 peak (April 2026) and is ~$16.46 as of writing (pulled back ~30%). Action: consider buying Almonty up to $22. Near-term drivers — Section 232 (July 13), Russell 1000 (June 29), the 2027 DFARS rule, and Sangdong Phase 2 (2027).
3. In plain English
A jargon-free summary of why the pick matters. (Plain-language companion to the table above; renders on the ticker's consolidated page.)
ALM — Almonty Industries Positive
Tungsten is the metal with the highest melting point, and it's quietly essential — it wires advanced AI and memory chips and goes into missiles, drones and armor-piercing ammunition. The problem: China refines more than 80% of the world's tungsten. Lots of countries can dig up the raw ore, but almost everyone ships it to China to be turned into the usable powders and chemicals, so they're still dependent on China. China has been throttling exports, and high-purity tungsten flowing to Japan's chip makers has dropped to zero — which is why this suddenly matters to the whole AI-chip supply chain.
Almonty is, in Prins's framing, the one Western company that both mines tungsten and processes it itself, outside China. Its flagship mine in South Korea (Sangdong) just started producing and roughly doubles in 2027, at which point it alone could be ~40% of all the tungsten produced outside China. It also owns an old, steady mine in Portugal and a permitted deposit in Montana. Crucially, it has already signed a binding contract to sell tungsten to a U.S. defense supplier at a guaranteed floor price — which lines up perfectly with a new Pentagon rule (starting 2027) that bans Chinese tungsten from anything defense-related.
So the bet is simple: demand from chips and defense is rising, no real new Western supply can arrive before about 2030, and a U.S. government report due July 13 plus that 2027 rule could tighten the screws further. Almonty is the rare company already positioned to sell into that gap. Prins rates it a buy up to $22 (it was around $16.50 when she wrote, after pulling back ~30% from its high). The cautions: the new mine is still ramping up, the company has issued a lot of new shares (and a big convertible bond that could mean more), the tungsten price itself can swing, and it's a one-metal company — so it's a higher-risk, single-theme play.
Summary derived from the Prinsights Pulse Premium article for personal study. Not investment advice. © Nomi Prins / Prinsights for source material.