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Nomi Prins — Why the Iran War Changed Uranium's Timeline

The war pulled the strained nuclear-fuel supply chain back into view — a structural deficit, a Russian enrichment chokepoint, and a years-long catch-up phase.
2026-MAR-11 · Prinsights (Substack) · Nomi Prins (ex-Goldman Sachs MD; Prinsights Global) · newsletter · ↗ Read on Substack
One-line take: the Iran war threw the strained uranium/enrichment supply chain back into focus. Reactor demand outpaced mine supply in 2025 (68.9 kt consumed vs 62.2 kt produced); the U.S. imports 99% of its uranium and relies on Russia's Rosatom (~40-45% of global enrichment) — the real chokepoint. The only commercial U.S. enrichment plant is European-owned Urenco USA (~⅓ of needs). New mines are years out: Denison's Phoenix (~mid-2028) and NexGen's Rook I (~2030). Cameco just signed a 9-yr / 22M-lb (~$1.9B) deal with India; Kazatomprom signed its own. Spot hit $94 in Jan, briefly $101 in futures, ~$87 end-Feb. Washington's framework is building (the $80B Westinghouse deal with owners Cameco + Brookfield; $2.7B DOE enrichment contracts) but the supply chain must catch up. Note: her March Founders+ pick — a little-known U.S. domestic uranium company — is paywalled, so no single buy recommendation is captured here.

1. Stocks & names mentioned

A top-down uranium/enrichment supply-chain piece; the names are cited as evidence — producers, developers, the enrichment chokepoint, and the policy framework — not as individual buy/sell ratings (her March pick is paywalled). "View" reflects how each was framed. The "At" link opens the article. Research: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis.

TickerNameResearchViewWhat she saidAt
CCJCamecoQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveOn March 2 signed a 9-year deal with India for 22M lbs (deliveries 2027-2035, ~$1.9B at current prices) — proof utilities are racing to lock long-term supply; also a co-owner (with Brookfield) of Westinghouse behind the $80B US reactor partnership.read
DNNDenison MinesQT · SA · STK · FANeutralOne of the two largest new projects in the pipeline — its Phoenix ISR mine in Saskatchewan targets first production mid-2028 pending final approval; cited as evidence new supply can't close the gap soon.read
NXENexGen EnergyQT · SA · STK · FANeutralThe other major pipeline project — its Rook I just received a construction licence, expected online ~2030; neither it nor Phoenix would come near to closing the US/global supply-demand gap.read
KAPKazatompromSANeutralThe world's largest uranium producer (Kazakhstan, closely aligned with Moscow); announced a large supply agreement with India (pending April shareholder approval) — part of the global rush to lock long-term supply.read
BAMBrookfield Asset ManagementQT · SA · STK · FANeutralCo-owner (with Cameco) of Westinghouse — the White House's Oct-2025 $80B strategic partnership to finance and permit a fleet of AP1000 reactors; named to show the scale of the US nuclear recommitment.read
WestinghouseWestinghouse Electric (private)NeutralSubject of the Oct-2025 $80B US partnership to build a fleet of AP1000 reactors — owned by Cameco & Brookfield; the policy anchor of the domestic nuclear build-out.read
Urenco USAUrenco USA (private; European-owned)NeutralThe only commercial-scale enrichment plant operating in the US (New Mexico), supplying ~⅓ of domestic needs — illustrating how thin US enrichment capacity is.read
RosatomRosatom / Tenex (Russian state nuclear corp)NegativeThe enrichment chokepoint — controls 40-45% of global enrichment; US utilities still pay its trading arm Tenex >$1B/yr. The only exit is building domestic capacity that makes Russian supply unnecessary.read
UraniumUranium / enrichment (commodity)Positive2025 reactor demand outpaced mine supply (68.9 kt vs 62.2 kt); spot hit $94 in Jan, briefly $101 in futures, ~$87 end-Feb. With India locking up long-term supply and the Jan-2028 Russian-import deadline looming, Prins expects spot and forward prices to rise.read

"View" reflects how each name was framed in this article (Positive = supply-deficit beneficiary; Neutral = pipeline/policy data point; Negative = the Russian enrichment dependency). Built from the article's free/public portion; her March Founders+ uranium pick is paywalled. Research: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis.

2. Key points

The war put the fuel chain back in view

The Russian dependency that never went away

What the Iran strikes revealed

The deficit predates the war

Buyers are locking up supply

99% imported, thin enrichment

Washington has the framework; the chain must catch up

3. In plain English

A jargon-free summary of why each name is in the piece. (Plain-language companion to the table above; renders on each ticker's consolidated page.)

CCJ — Cameco Positive

Cameco is one of the West's biggest uranium miners (Canada). Prins highlights two things: it just signed a nine-year, $1.9 billion deal to sell India 22 million pounds of uranium — a sign that buyers are scrambling to lock in supply years ahead — and it co-owns Westinghouse, the reactor builder at the heart of an $80 billion U.S. government nuclear push. So Cameco sits on both the fuel side and the reactor side of the build-out.

DNN — Denison Mines Neutral

Denison is developing the Phoenix mine in Canada, one of the only two big new uranium projects coming. Prins isn't rating the stock — she uses it to make a point: even the best new mines won't start producing until around 2028, so the supply shortage can't be fixed quickly no matter what.

NXE — NexGen Energy Neutral

NexGen is building Rook I, the other major new uranium project, which just got its construction license but won't be running until roughly 2030. Like Denison, it's cited as evidence of how long new supply takes — neither project gets close to filling the gap between how much uranium reactors need and how much is being mined.

KAP — Kazatomprom Neutral

Kazatomprom is the world's biggest uranium producer, based in Kazakhstan, which is closely tied to Russia. Prins notes it just lined up its own big supply deal with India — more proof that countries are racing to lock down long-term uranium — while also flagging the geopolitical catch: a huge share of the world's supply sits in Moscow's orbit.

BAM — Brookfield Asset Management Neutral

Brookfield is a giant asset manager that co-owns Westinghouse alongside Cameco. Prins names it to show the scale of the U.S. nuclear recommitment — the Washington-backed $80 billion deal to build a fleet of new reactors runs through a company Brookfield part-owns. It's context for how serious and well-funded the policy push is.

Rosatom — Rosatom / Tenex Negative

Rosatom is Russia's state nuclear company, and it's the real bottleneck: it controls 40-45% of the world's uranium enrichment — the step that turns mined uranium into reactor fuel. Western utilities have kept paying its trading arm over $1 billion a year even through sanctions, because there's almost nowhere else to go. Prins frames this dependency as the problem the whole West now has to engineer its way out of by building its own enrichment.

Uranium — Uranium / enrichment Positive

The core thesis: the world's reactors are now burning more uranium than mines produce, and the U.S. imports nearly all of it while depending on Russia for enrichment. New mines are years away, big buyers like India are locking up supply for the next decade, and a 2028 deadline to stop Russian imports is bearing down. Prins expects uranium prices — both today's spot price and the long-term contract prices utilities pay — to climb as this squeeze plays out.


Summary derived from the public (free) portion of the Prinsights Substack article for personal study. Not investment advice; the author's specific recommendation is paywalled. © Nomi Prins / Prinsights for source material.