Nomi Prins — Lula-Trump Meeting Puts Critical Minerals at the Center of Brazil-U.S. Relations
A guest essay (Roberto Georg Uebel): Brazil's unanimous new critical-minerals law and a three-hour Lula-Trump meeting put rare earths at the center of Brazil-U.S. relations.
One-line take: a guest essay by Brazilian geopolitical/economic expert Roberto Georg Uebel — hours before Lula landed in Washington, Brazil's Chamber of Deputies unanimously approved a National Policy for Critical and Strategic Minerals, and the May 7 Lula-Trump meeting (an unusual three hours) put rare earths and critical minerals at the center of Brazil-U.S. relations. The law tries to break Brazil's role as a raw-commodity exporter — prioritizing in-country processing with proportional tax incentives, creating a Special Council and a Mineral Activity Guarantee Fund, and adding sustainability/traceability requirements. Brazil wants U.S. investment to rebalance dependence on China, Russia and the EU. This is a macro/geopolitical note; no individual securities are named. Prins notes the April-issue rare-earth pick (paywalled) stands to benefit and is still below its buy-up-to price.
Key points
A unanimous law, then a three-hour meeting
- Just before Lula landed at Joint Base Andrews, Brazil's Chamber of Deputies unanimously approved the National Policy for Critical and Strategic Minerals — rare in a deeply polarized, pre-election environment. The May 7 White House meeting ran ~three hours, covering tariff relief through rare earths and critical minerals.
From raw exporter to processor
- The law's core aim is to break Brazil's historical role as a mere exporter of mineral commodities: it prioritizes in-country processing and industrial transformation, with tax incentives proportional to the level of processing done in Brazil — integrating critical minerals (rare earths, lithium and inputs for batteries, fertilizers, motors, defense) into higher value-added domestic chains.
New governance structure
- Creates a Special Council for the Industrialization of Critical and Strategic Minerals (defining what's strategic, assessing projects, overseeing corporate-control changes), a Mineral Activity Guarantee Fund, incentivized debentures and tax-credit models, mandatory R&D investment, a national mineral research network, a low-carbon mining certificate, and an "urban mining" concept (recovering minerals from e-waste/batteries).
Sustainability and traceability strings
- Funding incentives are conditioned on environmental and social requirements — dam-safety standards, damage-prevention mechanisms, and dialogue with affected communities.
The geopolitical pivot
- The bill went straight to the Senate (also expected to pass unanimously), since U.S. counterparts asked for a clear regulatory framework as a condition for working groups over the next 30 days. Lula wants U.S. investment to rebalance Brazil's dependence on China, Russia and Europe — and an institutional guarantor as he moves toward a fourth term.
Prinsights' takeaway (free portion)
- Prins has detailed Brazil's shift from raw-commodities exporter to strategic U.S. partner since the early days. Founders+ members know the April-issue rare-earth pick stands to benefit from this meeting and is still below its buy-up-to price (paywalled).
Summary derived from the public (free) portion of the Prinsights Substack guest essay (by Roberto Georg Uebel) for personal study. Not investment advice; the author's specific recommendation is paywalled. © Nomi Prins / Prinsights for source material.