Nomi Prins — MAY ISSUE - The Company Cashing In on a Blocked Strait
The world's most important shipping lane remains effectively closed — and one U.S.-listed VLCC owner is still capturing rates the market is not fully pricing.
One-line take: the monthly Founders+ companion to the Hormuz thesis — the strait has been disrupted since Feb 28, >1,500 vessels and up to 20,000 seafarers are stranded, Hormuz crude/product flows fell from ~20 Mbbl/d to ~2 Mbbl/d, and Brent hit a four-year high. With war-risk cover withdrawn and Lloyd's hull-war premiums ~8x normal, the scarce thing isn't the oil — it's the ability to move it reliably. Note: this is the gated MAY ISSUE — the actual pick (an under-the-radar U.S.-listed VLCC owner with a modern compliant fleet and a fixed-plus-spot contract mix) is behind the Founders+ paywall, so the specific ticker and buy-up-to price are not captured here.
1. Stocks & names mentioned
The free portion names no individual security; the pick (a U.S.-listed VLCC tanker owner) is paywalled. The only tradable reference is oil/Brent as the underlying commodity. "View" reflects how it was framed. The "At" link opens the article. Research: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis.
| Ticker | Name | Research | View | What she said | At |
|---|
| Crude oil (Brent) | Crude oil | — | Neutral | Hormuz crude/product flows fell from ~20 Mbbl/d to ~2 Mbbl/d in March; the IEA calls it the largest oil-supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. Brent climbed to a four-year high — the oil exists, but moving it on time and securely is what's scarce. | read |
Built from the article's free/public portion; this is the gated MAY ISSUE and Prins's specific VLCC-owner recommendation and buy-up-to price are reserved for Founders+ subscribers. Research: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis.
2. Key points
The strait is still effectively closed
- Trump's Project Freedom escort (launched May 3) met Iranian cruise missiles, drones and small-boat attacks; two American-flagged ships got through before Iran struck the UAE's Fujairah oil hub and the U.S. Navy sank six Iranian boats. Brent kept climbing to a four-year high.
- Disruption dates to Feb 28 (warnings, attacks on merchant ships, sea mines). >1,500 vessels remain stranded in the Gulf with up to 20,000 seafarers aboard.
Insurance is the chokepoint
- P&I clubs gave 72-hour notices (effective March 2) canceling certain war-risk extensions — a huge move. Lloyd's Market Association hull-war market stayed open but at ~8x pre-conflict premiums.
- The Trump administration directed the U.S. Development Finance Corporation to set up to $40B in political-risk insurance for Gulf transits, yet private cover for routine commercial transits hasn't returned to pre-war terms.
Mines make reopening slow
- The U.S. says clearing Iranian mines will take at least six months after a lasting ceasefire, with reports Iran has lost track of how many it planted. The IEA calls this the largest oil-supply disruption in the history of the global oil market — bigger than the 1970s shocks.
The investable angle (paywalled)
- Reliability — not the oil itself — is what's scarce. The issue identifies an under-the-radar U.S.-listed VLCC owner with a modern, compliant fleet and a fixed-contract-plus-spot mix that limits downside while capturing VLCC spot-rate upside. The name and entry price are reserved for Founders+ members.
Summary derived from the public (free) portion of the Prinsights Substack article for personal study. Not investment advice; the author's specific recommendation is paywalled. © Nomi Prins / Prinsights for source material.