Last week the US DOE ordered Unit 4 of the Wagner Generating Station (outside Baltimore) to keep running through summer — a flashing warning light for energy demand. Wagner 4 is a 397-MW oil-fired unit built 1972, already scheduled for retirement, capped by Maryland air rules at 438 operating hours per year; the order lets PJM (the largest US grid operator, 13 states + DC) run it past that cap through Aug 19. PJM filed May 21; Energy Secretary Chris Wright signed May 22 (shortfalls for 65M Americans "unacceptable"). It is the third emergency order for Wagner in under a year.
Wagner is one of several Talen Energy (NASDAQ: TLN) units set to close in 2025 but pushed to 2029 under a reliability agreement.
Since early 2025 the DOE has used Section 202(c) emergency authority to keep coal/oil units running past retirement in Michigan/Washington/Indiana/Colorado/Pennsylvania/Maryland (>40 orders, at least 4.4 GW of coal kept online). In 2025, 12.3 GW was lined up to retire but only 4.6 GW went dark (smallest since 2008).
NERC issued a May-4 Level-3 alert (most serious) on data-center grid risk; it projects US summer peak demand +224 GW over the next decade (vs 132 GW a year earlier) — the highest growth since 1995; it rates 13 of 23 regions elevated/high risk. Demand was flat for 20 years, now climbing (data centers/AI, onshoring, electrification).
PJM expects +5-7 GW data-center load per year 2027-2032 vs only 2-3 GW new supply; the interconnection wait stretched from under 2 years (2008) to over 8 years. The grid lacks "firm power" (gas/nuclear/hydro/geothermal — on-demand) vs intermittent solar/wind.
PJM's market monitor: customers paying ~$13.6B more in a single delivery year (much of it for data-center load); capacity-market pricing set to stay elevated. The price hit its legal ceiling in three straight auctions; the next auction (June 2026) sets 2028-29 capacity payments — uncapped, the most recent would have cleared ~$530/MW-day. The companies that own reliable firm generation are about to find out what it's worth, in public, on a pre-determined date.
(Teaser to the May Pulse Premium issue on NextEra/Dominion + the firm-power pick.)