| Ticker | Name | Research | View | What's said | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | Alphabet (Google) | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | The winner of the turn: Gemini 3.0 "caught up and passed OpenAI" without NVDA GPUs or a Stargate/Oracle financing morass; ~$70bn FCF/4 quarters, institutional memory, no key-man risk. Berkshire bought GOOG in Q3 at ATHs. Framed as the long leg of a GOOG-long / NVDA-funding-short pair. | read ↗ |
| CCJ | Cameco | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | Bullish uranium tell: Cameco (+ a utility) showed up to buy spot at $76-77/lb vs a ~$85 term price with the carry wide open — and Cameco has been borrowing pounds to meet deliveries, "a game that can be played for only so long." Paulo "was buying again on Friday," betting on a Strategic Uranium Reserve + triple-digit US floor-price "wedge." | read ↗ |
| URA | Global X Uranium ETF | QT · SA · STK | Neutral | Reference: the "key uranium ETF" whose momentum-factor / OKLO-meme flows dragged uranium miners into the AI/power-adjacent selloff — the crossfire uranium equities need a "wedge" to escape. | read ↗ |
| Anthropic | Anthropic (private) | — | Neutral | Reference: cited (via The Information) as poised to out-earn OpenAI this year on API/coding revenue — evidence OpenAI's technological lead has narrowed, part of the AI-narrative turn. | read ↗ |
| BRK.B | Berkshire Hathaway | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | Reference / confirmation: Berkshire bought Google in Q3 as it made new all-time highs — a "smart money" tell contrasted with SoftBank ("Masaponzi") selling NVDA to buy OpenAI. "These are not the same." | read ↗ |
| NVDA | NVIDIA | QT · SA · STK · FA | Negative | The funding short: Paulo shorted the post-earnings pop and added at the open. The tell is a YoY/QoQ revenue vs accounts-receivable divergence — rising cash consumption despite revenue growth, "a massive strain on working capital." Even a leaked H200-to-China headline couldn't lift it (a "news failure"); "the worm has turned," a long way down in time and price. | read ↗ |
| ORCL | Oracle | QT · SA · STK · FA | Negative | The datacenter-credit posterchild: CDS blown out for weeks; debt pushed off-balance-sheet into ABS ("opaque disintermediation"); Deutsche shows ORCL as a huge outlier. "May yet end up as the WorldCom" of this cycle's datacenter-SPV insanity — "the numbers will not math." | read ↗ |
| OpenAI | OpenAI (private) | — | Negative | At the center of the turn: The Information's leak of Altman's "rough vibes / economic headwinds" memo after Gemini 3's leapfrog; ~$500bn valuation but projected >$100bn cash burn while inference costs run ahead of revenue. "No culture" vs Google's institutional memory; key-man risk. | read ↗ |
| PLTR | Palantir | QT · SA · STK · FA | Negative | Insider-selling tell: CEO Alex Karp sold 585,000 shares for $96mn on Thursday — right after his "hubristic defiant" CNBC appearance two weeks earlier. Cited as one of the frothy AI-adjacent risk assets to keep in context. | read ↗ |
| OKLO | Oklo Inc | QT · SA · STK · FA | Negative | Named pejoratively: "OKLO meme-type garbage" driving the URA ETF and dragging real uranium miners into the AI/power-momentum selloff — the froth uranium equities need to separate from. | read ↗ |
| BMNR | BitMine Immersion Technologies | QT · SA · STK · FA | Negative | Crypto-avalanche example: sitting on a ~$4bn loss on its Ether bet; flagged "structural issues" (opaque, costly structure; leadership/advisor comp could extract ~$157mn/yr) — part of the NVDA-and-bitcoin illiquidity/momentum linkage. | read ↗ |
"View" reflects this note's framing (Positive = the two names he's constructively positioned in — GOOG long, uranium via Cameco; Neutral = context/confirmation references; Negative = the turning AI/datacenter/crypto complex he's short or cautious on). OpenAI and Anthropic are private (no ticker). Bitcoin is an asset class, not a security, so it's discussed but not tabled. Written post — no video, so "Source" opens the Substack note. Research: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis.
A jargon-free summary of the thesis behind each name — what it actually is and why that view. (Plain-language companion to the table above; renders on each ticker's consolidated page.)
For two years the AI story was "OpenAI and NVIDIA win everything." Paulo argues that just flipped: Google's new Gemini 3 model caught up to and passed OpenAI — and Google did it with its own chips and its own cash, without the expensive borrowed-money data-center schemes the others rely on. Google throws off about $70 billion of spare cash every few months, has deep engineering culture, and doesn't depend on one founder.
So he frames it as a pair trade: own Google (the durable winner, which even Warren Buffett's Berkshire bought at record highs) and short the names that need constant new funding to keep the story alive. Google is the "long" side.
Uranium (nuclear-plant fuel) sold off because it had been lumped in with the AI/power hype and momentum-chasing funds. Paulo thinks that selloff is a buying chance. Cameco, the biggest Western uranium miner, and a power utility both stepped in to buy uranium at $76-77 a pound even though longer-term contracts are priced around $85 — a sign the metal is cheap. Cameco has even been borrowing uranium to meet its delivery promises, which it can't do forever, so it has strong reason to buy.
His bigger bet is a political catalyst: he expects Washington to create a Strategic Uranium Reserve and possibly guarantee a high floor price for US-mined uranium (as it did for rare earths). That would give uranium stocks their own reason to rise, separate from the AI selloff dragging them down. He was buying again.
NVIDIA makes the chips that power the AI boom and has been the market's biggest winner. Paulo is now short it. His main red flag is technical but simple: NVIDIA's revenue keeps growing, but the money customers owe it but haven't paid yet (accounts receivable) is growing even faster, and its actual cash is getting tighter. In plain terms, sales look great on paper while real cash is under strain — often a warning sign, especially when the company is also helping fund the very customers buying its chips.
He thinks the "story" that drove the stock has peaked — and once a story turns, "it's a long way down." A sign of that: normally a bullish headline (letting NVIDIA sell chips to China) would pop the stock; instead it fell, which he reads as the market no longer rewarding good news.
Oracle went all-in on building AI data centers, largely financed with debt. Paulo sees it as the poster child for the riskiest part of this cycle. The cost to insure Oracle's debt against default (its "CDS") has spiked, and a lot of the borrowing has been moved off Oracle's own books into complex, hard-to-see financing structures. He compares it to WorldCom — a company whose aggressive accounting and debt eventually blew up — and says "the numbers will not math": the promised revenue doesn't justify the spending. A name to avoid, and a warning for the whole data-center-credit complex.
Key points extracted from the paid Substack post (in transcript.txt) for personal study. Not investment advice. © Paulo Macro for source material.