Title: Platinum, Gas, Oil, Copper, & Equity Risk Show: Paulo Macro (Substack) — paid Guest: Paulo Macro ("Cloudbear") Date: 2026-FEB-02 URL: https://paulomacro.substack.com/p/platinum-gas-oil-copper-and-equity Length: written post (no timestamps) Note: Back-filled post (processed 2026-JUL-07). A Monday multi-topic roundup that began as a daily-thread chat kickoff. Platinum: a holiday breakout through the $2300 all-time high then a "Holy Grail" flush lower — he bought Friday (an impatient reload) on classic forced-liquidation behavior. Natural gas: gas ripped $3→$7+ in a week ("Shrub's Razor"); storage neutralized to ~100bcf below the 5yr avg; a second Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event postponed to ~Feb 8 but high-confidence, a possible full polar-vortex split with acute cold and a late-injection "drag the trough" setup — watching for gas reentry. Oil: no Mideast invasion yet, but Iranian-revolution anniversaries (Feb 1/9-11 1979) are watched. Copper: Eldorado Gold bid for Foran Mining (an old copper-basket name) — the M&A wave is starting; his current copper names are ALDE, TGB, SURG; Robert Friedland meeting Trump. Equity risk: almost no hedging despite flat market and seasonality, extreme positioning, semis "probably next to get the parabola-bashing," insider selling at 2021-mania extremes, vanishing e-mini top-of-book liquidity. Body reproduced for personal study; Substack chrome removed, wording otherwise verbatim.
I knew from the outset this daily thread kickoff on chat would get long so went with a note…
Platinum
Newer readers will know that I am a big believer in Flushes and Holy Grails. I have written an older primer detailing what these terms mean, but basically a few years ago I noticed that supports/resistances and technical levels were no longer holding but rather being seen as stop run opportunities for trims and exits, or reload areas for positioning in size in the direction of a primary trend. When I say "Everything is a Flush," of course I am being somewhat facetious, but I have to say being aware of this phenomenon has helped my entries and exits immensely. Incorporate them as you will.
Not to beat a dead horse on platinum, but during the big holiday breakout as platinum ripped through the prior all-time high of $2300/oz spot, I told a few friends on our chats that a reversal and Holy Grail to $1900 would be ideal for a patient reload. Of course I underestimated the extent of the move in both directions, but few can say they traded the past week to perfection — there is no Perfect Trade.
Why did I say the above on platinum? This chart shows you the levels.
Zooming in:
Notice what happened… the Holy Grail you see overnight in spot is the hallmark of forced liquidation and classic sign of a spot to reenter a primary trend. Now, I bought on Friday, which in retrospect was an impatient mistake, but this sort of trading behavior raises my confidence that at least in the near term, the selling should be over and those who had to sell for non-economic reasons have sold. No guarantees, not advice. Just risk/reward. Once you start looking for Flushes and Holy Grails, you will see them everywhere.
Natural Gas
For the benefit of those not on the Substack chat, I offered these comments over the weekend, lightly edited now for legibility:
Recall the last time I wrote on it in detail was Jan 18th. Link here.
A mere two weeks ago, we joked that we had fallen from $5 to $3 in a month so it only made sense the funniest, most absurd outcome would be for gas to go back up to $5 after another month. Instead gas decided to do $7+ in a week because that is what NG does! Shrub's Razor strikes again.
Also from then:
"In real time today NG storage is running ~200bcf above average right now (as of a few hours ago in real time). I expect the coming cold blast to neutralize that surplus by month end."
Check. We are currently around 2.42T vs the 2.47T 5yr avg as I write [now in real time Monday morning we sit at ~2.33T vs ~2.44 5yr avg, or ~100bcf below].
"Then after Feb 5th (around Feb 6-12th) we should expect to see a modest-to-moderate warmup. NG could crater again once the models pick it up because that could push gas in storage slightly above/behind the avg storage pace again. And once again "winter is over" talk will abound. The 10-15day ECM ensemble model will likely overstate that warmup in the same way they have been overstating warmth all winter.
And despite all the incredibly bullish teleconnections just a few days ago, my pals at HFI Research show us just how much the outlook has changed from last Monday to overnight in terms of Gas-weighted Heating Degree Days (GDDs):
As an aside, if you don't subscribe to HFI already, I would suggest you check him out — great analysis does not come cheap, but in this game you get what you pay for, and I personally consider him a go-to on energy research.
Continuing with this weekend's comment:
Here is the catch: I do not expect the warm to stick like last winter, because we are in a moderating La Nina headed into El Nino this spring/summer. While La Ninas typically feature a warmer February, weakening La Ninas into El Ninos feature winters that often run late."
We lost -7 GDDs overnight and another -10 today [Saturday], so -17 since friday's close. Models will begin to really solidify this in the 6-10 day as we get through early this week.
Lastly I published on Jan 18th:
"There is another wrinkle: I believe a second Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event has begun, and will become very evident by Jan 22nd, i.e. later this week. SSWs involving rapidly rising temperatures over the North Pole that push Arctic air into the lower latitudes in the presence of declining zonal winds (high winds keep the Polar Vortex in a tight ball, while weak winds allow it to blob south over the continents). SSW usually involves 2 or 3 blasts of cold. The first arrives typically 2-3 wks after; the second ~4-5wks, and a parting shot 45-60 days later. In the chart you can see the SSW we got around Thanksgiving (highly unusual that early in the season). This resulted in the two cold snaps around Dec 15th and New Year's. The 45-60 day window from the Thanksgiving SSW is now."
This has not validated yet — postponed to ~Feb 8th but confidence in this coming is extremely high.
This matters because the temperatures in the Artic have recently been well below normal for this time of year, meaning an SSW could result in waves of cold into the lower latitudes as discussed in the original trade here (contingent upon proper high-latitude blocking and other teleconnections directing the cold to the place that matters for gas, i.e. the eastern half of the US):
Last comment from the chat:
The interesting thing is it is looking like a full split rather than a stretch of the PV, and one of the lobes may head for Hudson Bay which would likely provide a cold tap source for the eastern half of the US for a few weeks. This sort of SSW could have *acute* cold implications (Top 5 cold February type of implications), and also suggest cold blasts could persist well through March into early spring, supporting a scenario that we could "drag the trough" on gas storage and begin injection storage later than required for Nov26 End of Injection balances to achieve a high enough buffer for 2026-27 without substantially higher gas prices. It is [somewhat] reminiscent of 2022 for me [though admittedly we are 100-150bcf behind the 2022 pace and facing a warm up]. So I am watching the gas market closely for reentry in the coming sessions. I think the next 2-3 months could well end up being epic.
I of course sold my gas a few days too soon ten days ago, and took a time out for a week which has since ended. I have not done anything since, but I am watching, and thinking we may get a second bite at the apple. Time to dust off Flushes and Grails…patience, patience…
Oil
No invasion this weekend in the Middle East. Assets are still being positioned, and I figure we need at least a few more days. As mentioned on chat last week, anniversaries matter, and we are coming up on some big ones:
Some here will recall that given Hamas attacked Israel on Oct 7th 2023 on the holy day of Simchat Torah ("joy of the Torah"), I correctly predicted that Israel would hit Iran on the Jewish anniversary of Simchat Torah which fell on October 24-25th, 2024. Sure enough, in the early hours of Oct 26th, Israel bombed Iran in the first direct mass-kinetic attack by Israel on Iran. We were long gold into that move through $2700 - some called us crazy but anniversaries matter. Why do we bring this up? Because there is another big anniversary here relating to Iran. Quick summary:
** 1 February 1979 – Ayatollah Khomeini returns from exile to Tehran, greeted by massive crowds, and immediately begins to assert parallel revolutionary authority.
** 9–10 February 1979 – Street fighting breaks out in Tehran between pro‑revolutionary forces (rebel troops, armed civilians, and guerrillas) and units loyal to the Shah's last prime minister, Shapour Bakhtiar; Khomeini calls for open insurrection.
** 11 February 1979 – The armed forces in Tehran and nationally declare neutrality, regime institutions collapse, and revolutionary forces take over key military and state facilities. Feb 11th is observed as the "victory" day of the revolution.
Eyes up — these "negotiations" feel more like the last gasp but geopol is not exactly my lane and none of it really matters to why Oil is to 2026 what Gold was to 2025.
Copper
Interesting that Eldorado Gold bid for Foran Mining (copper) today. Foran was one of our original copper basket names from 2023-24. We let it go to focus on other names (ALDE.CN, TGB, SURG.CN, etc) but I remind readers once again we are at this point in the cycle.
And it seems Robert Friedland is meeting with Trump today…
Equity Risk
Considering how little progress the market has made since the October pre-correction highs, I am struck at how little actual hedging is being done (particularly considering the seasonality we have discussed extensively), as evidenced by the 10-day average of put/call volumes on the S&P:
The positioning charts remain extreme so I won't rehash it all. Here's L/S Fundamental funds from GS:
And JPM:
Semiconductors have been on our radar in terms of extremes and are probably next to get the parabola-bashing business:
Insiders are selling again at levels we have not seen since the mania of early 2021 — almost a thousand executives at ~6,000 firms have unloaded shares in January compared to 207 who added — the highest sell/buy ratio in five years:
And meanwhile liquidity is disappearing as S&P e-mini futures top of book liquidity dropped by -$15mn late last week on a 3-day average basis:
Stay frosty out there!
As always, kind regards,
Paulo aka Cloudbear