Paulo Macro — Updates on Platinum, Uranium, Natural Gas, Positioning & Sentiment (Jan 2026)

One-line take: An update across four books. Platinum: he diversified the Valterra holding with platinum calls, more recently via PPLT; shortage intact (1m lease rates high-teens), positioning still balanced/complacent, open interest not growing (an unstable price-discovery condition), and seasonality supportive into Feb-20 expiry — "very constructive." Uranium: SPUT is pro-rating January purchases (~750klb) and going easy on the ATM while renewing its OSC shelf, so it's trading a persistent premium to NAV (largest since 2021); arb funds are long-spot/short-SPUT, which has pushed spot to $85 (from $77 a month ago) — once SPUT reloads it can hit the spot market hard. Yellowcake also near a +5% NAV premium with its $100mn Kazatomprom call unused. "Uranium should continue to press higher." Natural gas: longer-term bull (tight winter balances + LNG + summer datacenter gas-turbine demand); AR is the largest, most-liquid, lightly-hedged name (RRC, EQT [hedges a lot], CRK [growing], CNX to screen). Near-term a Sudden Stratospheric Warming should drive cold blasts (~Feb 12 / ~Feb 23 / early-Mar) after a Feb 6-12 warm dip — trade fast, expect extreme vol. Positioning: NAAIM near 100% long, BofA Bull/Bear near pre-Volmageddon extremes, vol-control/CTAs re-deployed, retail options wild — sticky supercore inflation + a wage inflection could lift bond vol and force a collateral-driven de-risk. Back-filled post.

1. Stocks & names mentioned

Ticker	Name	Research	View	What's said	Source
PPLT	abrdn Physical Platinum Shares ETF	QT · SA · STK	Positive	His newer platinum instrument: "I diversified my large holding in Valterra with calls on platinum, more recently via the PPLT fund." The physical-platinum ETF he's using to add exposure/optionality on top of the miner. Notes he doesn't normally trade near-dated options for a fundamental view but is "very constructive for the next few weeks" with seasonality into Feb-20 expiry.	read ↗
VAL.JO	Valterra Platinum	SA · STK	Positive	Still his core platinum holding — "my large holding in Valterra," now diversified with PPLT calls. Shortage intact (1m lease rates high-teens), and he expects platinum to normalize to parity/premium vs gold "quickly."	read ↗
SRUUF	Sprott Physical Uranium Trust	SA · STK	Positive	Update on last week's call: SPUT is pro-rating January purchases (~750klb; 650klb done) and going easy on the ATM (~$146mn raised YTD) to let the OSC renew its base shelf quietly — so it now trades a persistent premium to NAV (largest since 2021). Once reloaded, its cash + ATM at a ~5% premium "could have a substantial impact on the spot market." Bullish.	read ↗
AR	Antero Resources	QT · SA · STK · FA	Positive	His lead natgas E&P: "AR is the largest, most liquid name with few hedges" — the cleanest long-term expression of the tighter-winter-balances + LNG + summer datacenter gas-turbine demand thesis. Near-term he's trading the weather (SSW cold blasts) with fast near-dated options, but the long view is the point.	read ↗
YCA.L	Yellowcake PLC	SA · STK	Neutral	"Another potential shooter on the field" — the London sequester vehicle now trading ~+5% over NAV (implying $89/lb vs $85 spot) with its $100mn CY2026 Kazatomprom call still unused. "Why they have not yet triggered… I don't know. But if they did…" Corroborating bullish uranium context.	read ↗
NATKY	Kazatomprom	SA · STK	Neutral	Supply reference: the counterparty on Yellowcake's annual US$100mn physical call for CY2026. Cited in the uranium supply/demand plumbing, not a stance.	read ↗
RRC	Range Resources	QT · SA · STK · FA	Neutral	On his natgas E&P screen — "worth picking through a few others (RRC, EQT… CRK… CNX)." Named as an alternative expression to Antero, no specific stance beyond "there is stuff to look at."	read ↗
EQT	EQT Corporation	QT · SA · STK · FA	Neutral	On the natgas screen but caveated: "EQT but they hedge a lot" — heavy hedging blunts the upside to a gas-price spike vs Antero's lightly-hedged profile. A name to look at, not a lead pick.	read ↗
CRK	Comstock Resources	QT · SA · STK · FA	Neutral	On the natgas screen: "CRK is growing production" — flagged as a growth angle among the gas E&Ps worth screening. No specific stance.	read ↗
CNX	CNX Resources	QT · SA · STK · FA	Neutral	Rounds out the natgas E&P screen ("CNX, etc — there is stuff to look at"). A name to research as an alternative gas expression, no specific stance.	read ↗
ARKK	ARK Innovation ETF	QT · SA · STK	Neutral	Contrarian sentiment tell, not a stance: "Cathie Wood of ARKK fame is piling on with Reaganomics tweets the likes of which we have not seen since Ackman, Druck… in November 2024" — cited as a euphoria "echo" that gives ammo to the bear case.	read ↗

"View" reflects this note's framing (Positive = his platinum instruments PPLT/Valterra, the bullish SPUT uranium setup, and his lead natgas name Antero; Neutral = the other uranium vehicles/supply, the natgas E&Ps he flags to screen, and ARKK as a sentiment echo). Valterra (JSE: VAL), SRUUF (TSX: U.UN), Yellowcake (YCA.LN) and Kazatomprom (LSE/AIX, OTC NATKY) are non-US and carry SA/STK. Platinum, uranium (U3O8) and natural gas are commodities, not securities; Sudden Stratospheric Warming, La Niña/El Niño, NAAIM, BofA Bull/Bear, vol-control, CTAs and supercore CPI are indicators/phenomena. Written post — no video, so "Source" opens the Substack note. Research: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis.

2. Talking points

Platinum — shortage intact, positioning unstable

Diversified the Valterra holding with platinum calls, latterly via PPLT. Shares outstanding up <50% while the metal more than doubled; the put/call ratio creeping up = hedging/caution, not euphoria.
1m lease rate still high-teens (shortage persists); spec net-long as % of OI balanced. Crucially, open interest isn't growing — new longs are met by other longs selling, not fresh shorts; entry only happens by re-racking the price higher — "a highly unstable condition for price discovery."
Seasonality supportive into the Feb-20 expiry; "very constructive for the next few weeks." Alyosha: "a market that clings to the highs has unfilled buying below."

Uranium — SPUT quiet into a shelf renewal, premium building

SPUT opened OSC talks ~2 weeks ago to renew the shelf (expires early Feb); at the regulator's request it's pro-rating January purchases (~750klb; 650klb done) and going easy on the ATM (~$146mn YTD) to avoid noise.
Result: SPUT now trades a persistent premium to NAV (largest since Sprott took over the trust from UPC in 2021), spawning long-spot/short-SPUT arb that has pushed spot to $85 (from $82 on Jan 1, $77 a month ago). Self-reinforcing if retail/ETF flows chase.
Once reloaded, SPUT's cash + ATM at a ~5% premium "could have a substantial impact on the spot market." Yellowcake near +5% NAV with a $100mn call unused. "Uranium should continue to press higher."

Natural gas — the long thesis, and a weather playbook

Long-term: tighter winter balances + growing LNG export capacity + summer datacenter gas-turbine demand. AR is the largest, most-liquid, lightly-hedged name; screen RRC, EQT (hedges a lot), CRK (growing), CNX.
Near-term: storage ~200bcf above average, but a "second Sudden Stratospheric Warming" (SSW) is starting — expect cold blasts ~Feb 12, ~Feb 23, early-Mar (the SSW cadence: first wave 2-3wks after, second 4-5wks, parting shot 45-60 days). A moderating La Niña into El Niño argues winter runs late (not the usual warm February).
Watch the Permian/Oklahoma cold (production shut-ins into peak heating demand); the Feb-8-2021 Texas Deep Freeze is the highest-correlation analog. Playbook: take near-dated option profits fast, buy the Feb-6-12 warm dip. "Friends don't let friends trade natgas" — vol will be extreme.

Positioning & sentiment — extreme to the bull side

Institutions near 100% long (NAAIM); BofA Bull/Bear near pre-Volmageddon-2018 extremes; Goldman Risk Appetite extreme; vol-control near fully deployed; CTAs ~$50bn (near Liberation-Day levels). HF semis/semi-equipment exposure screaming higher = crowded-long pain since the start of the year.
Retail "cannot stop speculating," especially in options; buybacks have stalled for six months (a bull driver quietly missing). In real terms equities have been in a bear market since early 2024.

The inflation/bond-vol tail

Economist optimism high (fiscal loosening/tax rebates in 1H26); but the share of the CPI basket running >2.5% is growing since early 2024, and wages look set to inflect higher (job-changers getting bigger bumps). Supercore + wages into historic-low bond vol is combustible.
Not positioned in bonds; sees better opportunity in shorting credit + a related "Big Short" (saved for a later note). The risk: rising bond vol → collateral-leverage squeeze → a forced de-risk into extreme valuations/positioning. "A few snowflakes… start an avalanche." Cathie Wood's Reaganomics tweets are the euphoria "echo."

3. In plain English

A jargon-free summary of the thesis behind the argued pick. (Plain-language companion to the table above; renders on the ticker's consolidated page.)

AR — Antero Resources Positive

Antero is a large US natural-gas producer. Paulo likes it as the cleanest way to own his gas thesis: he thinks US gas gets tight because winters are draining storage, the US keeps building export terminals (LNG) that ship gas overseas, and — new this cycle — AI datacenters are increasingly powered by on-site gas turbines, adding a big new source of summer demand.

Why Antero specifically: it's the biggest and most easily traded of the gas producers, and it hasn't "hedged" much. Hedging means locking in today's price for future production; a heavily hedged producer (like EQT, he notes) can't fully benefit if gas prices spike, whereas lightly-hedged Antero gets the full upside. He lists Range Resources, EQT, Comstock (growing production) and CNX as other names to research.

Short term, gas is wildly volatile — it fell from $5 to $3 in a month. He's watching the weather closely (a "Sudden Stratospheric Warming" event that pushes Arctic cold south should drive price spikes into February) and trades that with fast-moving options, but he stresses the durable reason to own a name like Antero is the multi-year demand story, not the weather.

Key points extracted from the paid Substack post (in transcript.txt) for personal study. Not investment advice. © Paulo Macro for source material.