Title: Updates on Platinum, Uranium, Natural Gas, Positioning & Sentiment, and More Show: Paulo Macro (Substack) — paid Guest: Paulo Macro ("Cloudbear") Date: 2026-JAN-18 URL: https://paulomacro.substack.com/p/updates-on-platinum-uranium-natural Length: written post (no timestamps) Note: Back-filled post (processed 2026-JUL-07). Folder dated from the byline (JAN 18, 2026). A multi-topic update: platinum (diversifying the Valterra holding with PPLT calls; seasonality + lease-rate shortage still intact), uranium (SPUT going quiet on the ATM/spot into an OSC shelf renewal, trading a persistent premium to NAV; spot $77→$85), natural gas (a Sudden Stratospheric Warming cold-blast playbook + the LNG/datacenter demand thesis via AR/RRC/EQT/CRK/CNX), and a lengthy US equity positioning/sentiment section flagging extreme bullishness. Body reproduced for personal study; Substack chrome removed. I hope everyone is enjoying a little quiet during this US long weekend. Hard to believe it's only January 18th. Meet 2026, same as 2025 — wild from the start! Actually I have been thinking that 2026 reminds me a lot of 2022 when I coined that year as "The Year of the Tails"… vibes. A few updates on the following: Platinum Uranium Natural Gas Positioning, Sentiment, and Possible Catalysts Let's get to it… Platinum I have discussed the bull case for white metals on and off since late last summer, after which silver and platinum in particular ran headlong into the current physical tightness condition we discussed during the holidays here. With the BCOM index rebalance behind us and a lack of bearish catalysts, the markets are doing what they do best: terrifying the bulls with volatile ranges and whipsaws, while keeping new long commitments on the sidelines (who in their right mind would buy into a parabolic blowoff). On platinum specifically, I diversified my large holding in Valterra with calls on platinum, more recently via the PPLT fund. It's certainly no longer an invisible asset. However when looking at the run over the past year, shares outstanding have increased less than 50% despite more than doubling the metal price: Source: PauloMacro via Bloomberg And while volatility is elevated as a function of crazy realized volatility, the put/call ratio has been creeping higher in recent weeks, suggesting hedging and caution rather than euphoria: Source: PauloMacro via Bloomberg As I wrote in last week's note, I think investors will be shocked at how quickly platinum normalizes into parity/premium to gold. The decade-long decline in platinum vs gold might have been the abnormality, and normalizations from abnormalities often happen quickly (similarly to extended valuations in equities running into risk aversion, or how leverage unwinds when an EM begins to see outflows): Source: PauloMacro via Bloomberg To add to the platinum note from last week, I think it is worth keeping seasonality in mind here (green line denotes Friday, January 16th)… this is the annual average going back 25 years: Removing last year (where the moves were truly extreme — past 25yrs ex-2025: Past 10yrs ex-2025: Pat 5yrs ex-2025: Source: PauloMacro via Bloomberg Meanwhile the shortage of physical has not alleviated, as the 1mth platinum lease rate remains in the high teens annualized: Source: PauloMacro via Bloomberg Speculators are entranced by silver, and certainly buying gold and copper, but the net long as a % of open interest in platinum remains balanced: Source: PauloMacro via Bloomberg And worse for anyone on the short side — the open interest itself is just not growing. This means that for every long coming into the market, it's not being met by an opposing short, but rather by another long selling. That tells me there is a lack of willing shorts (or hedgers) at the current price deck, and speculative entry is only facilitated by a re-racking higher of the price deck to elicit a long to exit… this is a highly unstable condition for price discovery: Source: PauloMacro via Bloomberg I don't normally trade near-dated options to express a fundamental view, but as trader/writer Alyosha likes to say, "a market that clings to the highs has unfilled buying below"… I think we have not seen the end of this move, and with positive seasonality lining up well for a higher contour into Feb 20th options expiry, I am very constructive for the next few weeks. Uranium Last week I discussed here how the setup for the uranium spot price and the emerging premium in the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust was opening a window in which SPUT should try to capitalize with another shock-and-awe follow-on. It quickly became apparent that SPUT initiated discussions with the Ontario Securities Commission (OSC) around two weeks ago to renew their base shelf prospectus which expires in early February. In order not to make any noise — and supposedly at the regulator's request — Sprott is pro-rating January 2026 uranium purchases (9mmlbs annual cap divided by 12 months, i.e. 750klbs in January, of which they have purchased 650klbs so far). At the same time they have raised ~$146mn in the market via the ATM so far in 2026, but they are going easy there as well — again so as to not create noise in the market and let the renewed shelf sail through the OSC without a hiccup. The bottom line is SPUT is now in a position where they will be going easy on the ATM and pretty much out of the physical market until they get a new prospectus, which could be any day. In the process, SPUT has begun to trade at a persistent premium to NAV — the largest since the immediate aftermath of Sprott taking over the trust from UPC in July 2021: Source: PauloMacro via Bloomberg This development has elicited arbitrage trades where hedge funds buy uranium spot and short SPUT on the idea that once SPUT gets a new base shelf, the trust will issue substantial sums via the ATM and the premium to NAV will disappear, allowing Long Spot / Short SPUT traders to capture the current ~5% premium to NAV. This is perfectly rational but also a dangerous trade in the interim because the arb buying of physical has driven the spot price up to $85/lb from $82 at the beginning of the year (and $77 a month ago). This move can become self-reinforcing as other financial players and retail investors give chase, leading to ETF-related and direct buying of SPUT into a wider premium. Then once SPUT is fully loaded with a fresh prospectus, the amount of money they might be able to raise via the ATM at the current ~5% premium to NAV plus the current $146mn in cash on hand (of which they will likely continue to keep $50mn aside to pay trust management fees) could have a substantial impact on the spot market, even with hedge funds selling their physical on the other side of the trade. Don't forget there is another potential shooter on the field: Yellowcake PLC in London has been trading at a premium to NAV for several days (currently +5% over NAV, implying $89/lb vs $85 spot). Why they have not yet triggered their $100mn call on Kazatomprom's uranium for CY2026 and fired off a follow-on, I don't know. But if they did… Bottom Line: Uranium has stretched its legs, and should continue to press higher here. Natural Gas Worth re-reading the initial note from the holidays. It has been quite a ride, and a reminder that friends don't let friends trade nat gas. From $5 to $3 in a month! The funniest outcome of course would be $5 to $3 to $5 in two months, and things may be setting up that way. This section is for the benefit of those not in the chat, and those readers who are sick of hearing about natgas can skip this part. Longer term investors should remain focused on the bigger thesis: tighter winter balances combined with growing LNG export capacity and demand kicking in from this summer via datacenters using gas turbines. AR is the largest, most liquid name with few hedges, but worth picking through a few others (RRC, EQT but they hedge a lot, CRK is growing production, CNX, etc — there is stuff to look at). I wrote this earlier this weekend before the weather models went crazy today, but the playbook remains something like this: In real time today NG storage is running ~200bcf above average right now (as of a few hours ago in real time — this chart however uses EIA data as of Jan 9th). Source: PauloMacro via Bloomberg I expect the coming cold blast to neutralize that surplus by month end. Then after Feb 5th (around Feb 6-12th) we should expect to see a modest-to-moderate warmup. NG could crater again once the models pick it up because that could push gas in storage slightly above/behind the avg storage pace again. And once again "winter is over" talk will abound. The 10-15day ECM ensemble model will likely overstate that warmup in the same way they have been overstating warmth all winter. Here is the catch: I do not expect the warm to stick like last winter, because we are in a moderating La Nina headed into El Nino this spring/summer. While La Ninas typically feature a warmer February, weakening La Ninas into El Ninos feature winters that often run late. There is another wrinkle: I believe a second Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event has begun, and will become very evident by Jan 22nd, i.e. later this week. SSWs involving rapidly rising temperatures over the North Pole that push Arctic air into the lower latitudes in the presence of declining zonal winds (high winds keep the Polar Vortex in a tight ball, while weak winds allow it to blob south over the continents). SSW usually involves 2 or 3 blasts of cold. The first arrives typically 2-3 wks after; the second ~4-5wks, and a parting shot 45-60 days later. In the chart you can see the SSW we got around Thanksgiving (highly unusual that early in the season). This resulted in the two cold snaps around Dec 15th and New Year's. The 45-60 day window from the Thanksgiving SSW is now. If we get a SSW this week (a risk I saw coming together two weeks ago and flagged on chat), then the first cold wave is likely to arrive around Feb 12th just before Valentine's Day. The second wave would come ~Feb 23rd, and then a final one around March 5th-20th. Assuming other teleconnections hold (the fancy talk of -AO, -NAO, -EPO, +PNA etc discussed in the prior note), we could "drag the trough" of natgas storage, and begin injections later than usual in the spring. Keeping it really simple: with exception of a warmup in Feb 6-12 timeframe, I expect US winter to see some of the acute action Europe has been experiencing recently…cold that just keeps coming. Model runs from the past 36 hours are all moving in this direction now between now and end of January. Playbook: I am prepared to be fast in the next week in taking any near-dated options profits, and then wait for the Feb 6-12th warm-up that should see natgas soften again, and see where the End of Season consensus storage balance is shaking out. As of right now best estimates are ~1.8Tcf in storage. I think this number will prove high, with another opportunity to get long in the next two weeks. Here is a taste of what is coming. Texas is in focus for the 20th (the corner of New Mexico and Texas is the Permian, where freezing temps there can see production shut-ins right when heating demand is screaming higher): Jan 24th: Jan 25th: Jan 26th: On Jan 30th, Oklahoma is at 10F (of course this is nearly 2 weeks out), but if I'm right about the cold persisting through early February, and if those Oklahoma temps were to move farther south… oh boy. I flagged this back on January 7th — of the "best fit" analogs, the one with the highest correlation in the past 10 years was February 8th 2021… two days later was the start of the Texas Deep Freeze which saw many deaths and $10k+ heating bills amidst the failure of the ERCOT grid. Source: CommodityWX via Twitter Again most people here should not focus on the weather — the longer-term fundamental dynamics for US gas are the key — winter spikes are just the "icing" on the cake. Volatility in the next few weeks will be extreme. Most would do well to stay focused on the long view, but for those who want to think about entry and live dangerously, this is how I think about the market right here. US Equity Positioning & Sentiment Positioning remains extreme to the bull side as discussed in detail in charts a month ago here. I keep hearing from observers that the market still has a wall of worry to climb because plenty of investors remain on the sidelines and uncommitted to US equities. I just don't get it. Starting with institutions… Managers continue to hover near 100% long (NAAIM): Source: PauloMacro via Bloomberg BofA's Bull/Bear is at extreme levels rarely seen… …so rare that their gauge is higher than the 2024 Trump reelection, the 2020 and 2021 euphoria, and pre-Covid Feb2020 highs, and is approaching pre-Volmaggeddon Feb 2018 levels: Goldman's Risk Appetite Indicator — extreme: Levkovich (former Citi Panic/Euphoria) — more bullish than 2007, but guess it's not full-blown dotcom 2000 or post-Covid Dec2021? I don't hear much about mechanical strategies anymore… here's vol control, where most strategies are back at or near fully deployed levels: Source: PauloMacro via Bloomberg Goldman's CTA positioning suggests at $50bln we are hovering around Trump reelection/Liberation Day levels, but a little below the typical $70bln extreme highs of the past decade: Hedge fund exposure to semiconductors and semi equipment continues to scream higher: This is important because Crowded Longs vs Shorts are again feeling significant pain since the beginning of the year: Source: PauloMacro via Bloomberg And if hedge funds are crowded in semis along with Mag7, then this is going to hurt the index huggers and US-dominated longs too: Retail of course cannot stop speculating: Source: Citadel They certainly can't control themselves when it comes to options: Meanwhile corporate buyback growth has stalled for six months now — funny you don't hear buybacks mentioned as a big bull driver either: Maybe this has something to do with that: Has the American Cult of Equity realize yet that in real terms their "equities as an inflation hedge" have been in a clear bear market since early 2024 — for two years now? Source: PauloMacro via Bloomberg The optimism is hard to miss across economists as well: Source: Apollo Their optimism is understandable… lots of tax cut rebates are coming (and a strong economy = strong stocks right?): The massive fiscal loosening of 1H26 is going to be palpable: But maybe while everyone obsesses over declining rents and OER, they are missing that the share of the CPI basket running above 2.5% is growing — and has been since early 2024 when coincidentally Nasdaq/Gold peaked out (see above): Source: Vanda I have discussed sticky inflation ad nauseum in 1H26 — rents and OER notwithstanding — but wage growth looks like it is going to inflect higher: In fact maybe this is already starting, as Job Changers are getting better pay bumps after the growth decline in 4Q: Source: PauloMacro via Bloomberg With Fannie buying $200bln of MBS, real retail sales could follow: Simon White of Bloomberg also highlights that an inflecting CPI driven by wages could feed into bond volatility (again — can we please give it a break about falling OER and rents): This would be fine in the typical Run It Hot scenario, except that rising wages and core services ex-rent (supercore) are happening at a time when bond volatility and trading ranges are at literal historic lows… Funny, like vol control, I don't hear about the basis trade anymore… remember when the market was obsessing about this a few years ago? Suddenly it is invisible, and yet bigger than ever: I am not positioned in the bonds right now. Personally I see more interesting opportunities in shorting credit and a related Big Short, but I will save that for a future note. But I think the complacency around late cycle OBBA-driven Run It Hot/No Stopping This Train growth narratives are at risk of running into an uptick in bond volatility which has knock-on effects not only within the bond market (basis, etc) but also to collateral leveraging that forces a derisk at a time when historically high valuations, sentiment, and extreme positioning can repeat 2025 in a risk aversion experience. Will it be oil? Bonds? Geopolitics? A combination of a few snowflakes of each that starts an avalanche of derisking? As Alyosha would also say: "You decide…" I suppose the best ammo I can give the bear case is that no other than Cathie Wood of ARKK fame is piling on with Reaganomics tweets the likes of which we have not seen since Ackman, Druck, and others were all crowing in November 2024 about "the most business-friendly administration in history" — and most of you know a love a good "echo"… Stay frosty out there…and try to keep warm! As always, kindly yours, Paulo aka Cloudbear