| Ticker | Name | Research | View | What's said | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | Anthropic (private) | — | Neutral | Catalyst reference, not a stance: "last week's release of Anthropic's Claude Cowork set off a demolition in US software on fears it could substitute for or commoditize many existing SaaS and application workflows" — the trigger behind the software ROS basket (IGV and its constituents). | read ↗ |
| EQIX | Equinix | QT · SA · STK · FA | Negative | ROS short candidate — "#9 on the list by market cap," a datacenter REIT paying a 2% dividend sitting on its 200dma. "Don't get me started on why this space is likely to be a disaster in the next few years." | read ↗ |
| MCD | McDonald's | QT · SA · STK · FA | Negative | ROS short candidate — "#4 on the list," the "American obesity export model" at 25x 2025E on an 8% EPS CAGR ("watch out if the whole world goes on Ozempic"). The Nifty-Fifty analog: MCD grew EPS ~4x from the 1972 peak to 1982 yet fell a third as its multiple contracted from 60x to 10x. | read ↗ |
| QCOM | Qualcomm | QT · SA · STK · FA | Negative | ROS short candidate — "#6 on the list." A "catchup laggard in the semi/chips/hardware space" that is "sloppy": "if it can't find its footing when semis and chip names are screaming higher like it's 1999… then when?" | read ↗ |
| ETN | Eaton | QT · SA · STK · FA | Negative | ROS short candidate — "#7… a bullseye for industrial/electrify-everything 'order-book-jammed-out-five-years' narratives" nestling on its 200dma. | read ↗ |
| BRK.B | Berkshire Hathaway | QT · SA · STK · FA | Negative | ROS short candidate — "#1 on the list was provocative… if you didn't know this chart was Berkshire." The provocation: "Buffett isn't there anymore, gang" — the name's technical roll-over vs a departed key man. | read ↗ |
| META | Meta Platforms | QT · SA · STK · FA | Negative | Short candidate: "Facebook worked, Metaverse didn't because 'legs are hard,' and capex discipline is quite literally the last thing on management's mind — they told you as much." A head-and-shoulders top forming. | read ↗ |
| IGV | iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF | QT · SA · STK | Negative | The software-ROS vehicle: "textbook 'ROS'" after Anthropic's Claude Cowork triggered a software demolition on commoditization fears — just as some HFs had rotated into software as AI "adopters/deployers." The basket he's watching break. | read ↗ |
| WDAY | Workday | QT · SA · STK · FA | Negative | A software-ROS constituent "leading the way" down — named as a textbook Rollover Syndrome example in the IGV basket. | read ↗ |
| NOW | ServiceNow | QT · SA · STK · FA | Negative | A software-ROS constituent named among the SaaS names breaking down in the IGV basket. | read ↗ |
| DDOG | Datadog | QT · SA · STK · FA | Negative | Software-ROS example: "Datadog flushed its 2021 all-time high… and promptly died" — a failed breakout he flags in the IGV basket. | read ↗ |
| INTU | Intuit | QT · SA · STK · FA | Negative | Software-ROS example ("a sore point — I bought puts during the Liberation Day recovery in that 'kiss from below' and got caned"); a name he's watched roll over. | read ↗ |
| ADSK | Autodesk | QT · SA · STK · FA | Negative | Software-ROS constituent named among the IGV names rolling over. | read ↗ |
| CRWD | CrowdStrike | QT · SA · STK · FA | Negative | Emerging ROS candidate: "200d still upward sloping, so it may need time to flatten out before getting put down for a long nap." Not there yet, on the watchlist. | read ↗ |
| PANW | Palo Alto Networks | QT · SA · STK · FA | Negative | Emerging ROS candidate: "Palo Alto looks primed" — a name he flags as close to rolling over. | read ↗ |
| V | Visa | QT · SA · STK · FA | Negative | ROS candidate: "everyone loves the Visa and Mastercard payment-rail 'moat,' but that 200dma has finally flattened out. Beware one last rally and the 'kiss goodnight' from below." | read ↗ |
| MA | Mastercard | QT · SA · STK · FA | Negative | ROS candidate alongside Visa: the payment-rail "moat" narrative with a 200dma that has flattened — awaiting "one last rally and the 'kiss goodnight' from below." | read ↗ |
| APO | Apollo Global Management | QT · SA · STK · FA | Negative | One of the "Kingmakers of our CLO equity/BDC shorts": "Apollo needs a little work but seems to be coming together" — an ROS short setup building in the private-credit alts complex. | read ↗ |
| BX | Blackstone | QT · SA · STK · FA | Negative | CLO/BDC "Kingmaker" short: "Blackstone is getting closer (note the progressively smaller departures from the 200dma over the past year)" — a maturing ROS setup. | read ↗ |
| KKR | KKR & Co | QT · SA · STK · FA | Negative | CLO/BDC "Kingmaker" short: "KKR is now in play — one last kiss before the big break?" — the most-advanced of the private-credit-alts ROS setups. | read ↗ |
"View" reflects this note's framing — a shortselling screen, so the named securities are almost all Negative (ROS short candidates within ±1% of a flattening 200-day). Anthropic (private) is Neutral: named only as the Claude Cowork catalyst behind the software selloff, not a stance. The names are grouped in the note as: mega-cap screen hits (EQIX, MCD, QCOM, ETN, BRK.B), a discretionary add (META), a software basket (IGV plus WDAY/NOW/DDOG/INTU/ADSK, with CRWD/PANW "primed"), payment rails (V/MA), and CLO-equity/BDC "Kingmakers" (APO/BX/KKR). NAAIM, BofA FMS, GS L/S gross, Citadel retail data, XLP/GSCBCYDP and the JGB market are indicators/markets, not tabled. His "White Whale" and one screen name are referenced anonymously. Written post — no video, so "Source" opens the Substack note. Research: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis.
A jargon-free summary of the argued short candidates. (Plain-language companion to the table above; renders on each ticker's consolidated page.)
McDonald's is a classic "safe" blue chip, but Paulo flags it as a short candidate because its chart has stalled right on its 200-day average (a line traders watch — sitting on it after a long run often precedes a decline) and it looks expensive: ~25x earnings for only ~8% profit growth. His historical warning: McDonald's was a darling of the 1970s "Nifty Fifty," and even though its earnings quadrupled over the next decade, the stock fell a third because investors stopped paying up — the valuation collapsed from 60x earnings to 10x. The risk is a repeat de-rating, especially if weight-loss drugs (Ozempic) dent fast-food demand.
Berkshire was the single biggest name on Paulo's "rolling over" screen — its chart has flattened onto its 200-day trend line. He knows it's provocative to flag Warren Buffett's company as a short, but his point is blunt: the technicals look tired, and "Buffett isn't there anymore" — the legendary investor who was the reason many owned it has stepped back, removing the key reason to pay a premium. A candidate to short if it breaks down, on chart and key-man grounds, not a claim the businesses are broken.
Paulo is bearish on Meta as a short candidate. His summary: the core Facebook/Instagram business works, but management wasted enormous sums on the "Metaverse" (which flopped — "legs are hard"), and they've made clear that reining in spending is "the last thing on their mind." With the stock forming a topping pattern (a "head and shoulders"), he sees a name whose spending indiscipline and stretched chart make it vulnerable if the market's mood turns.
IGV is a basket (ETF) of software stocks, and Paulo uses it to short the whole software group at once. The trigger: Anthropic released "Claude Cowork," an AI tool that investors fear could replace or cheapen a lot of the subscription software (SaaS) that companies pay for — so those stocks began to break down together. He calls the chart a "textbook" example of his Rollover Syndrome, and points to individual members leading the fall (Workday, ServiceNow, Datadog, Intuit, Autodesk), with CrowdStrike and Palo Alto not far behind. The bet is that AI turns from a tailwind into a threat for legacy software.
Equinix is a datacenter landlord (a REIT — a property company that pays out rent as dividends). It showed up high on Paulo's list of names rolling over on their 200-day trend. He's broadly bearish on datacenters — he thinks the current building boom will prove to be "a disaster in the next few years" (too much capacity chasing AI demand that may disappoint) — so a datacenter REIT stalling technically is exactly the kind of name he'd look to short as the story sours.
Key points extracted from the paid Substack post (in transcript.txt) for personal study. Not investment advice. © Paulo Macro for source material.