Title:   Surge Copper's Berg PFS, and copper juniors cushioning the oil collapse (chat note)
Source:  Paulo Macro (Substack chat)
Author:  Paulo Macro
Date:    2026-JUN-15
URL:     https://substack.com/chat/2195305/post/a61b9902-6c9f-4b78-9f08-71924bcaa2e7
Type:    Written Substack chat note (no video, no timestamps). Saved for personal study.
Note:    Text saved verbatim as pasted. The referenced Surge writeup: https://paulomacro.substack.com/p/a-new-copper-position

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Mon 15 June 2026... peace on Earth reigns and the market is explosive in a scramble across the board from precious metals to equities. Copper juniors are helping take some of the sting out of the oil collapse but are thin gruel as mental capital here continues to drain (mental capital more valuable even than financial capital). It's hard to imagine a world where math doesn't matter in the coming weeks and months, but here we are. Only thing you could say is, oddly, refiner cracks are rallying again despite the collapse in the oil flat price and spreads.

Speaking of Surge Copper (second largest position after Aldebaran, originally written up in early December here - https://paulomacro.substack.com/p/a-new-copper-position), the pre-feasibility study on the Berg asset is out, and it's solid. After tax NPV8 = US$3.3bn, IRR 24%, payback 2.9yrs using $4.75 Cu, $20/moly, $45/silver, with 28yr mine life. At spot $6.45/Cu and spot $30/moly the NPV8 pops to US$6.7bn. Skeptics will push back on the copper grade (0.22% copper), but the draw here is the moly...2nd largest moly mine in Canada after Teck's Highland Valley. Mkt cap is US$250mn fully diluted with no debt, or 7% of NAV just on Berg asset. Recent capital raise removed any Lassonde Curve overhang for the next 18 months. Good day to release this too. Of course the market will not care...

Stay frosty out there.