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Paulo Macro — The Anatomy of a Crash Revisited

"When There's Nothing Else to Say." A brief follow-up to the Mar-14 note: why he released it early, and a re-statement of the four-stage crash pattern with the analogs, now pointed at the Nasdaq 100.
2026-MAR-23 · Paulo Macro (Substack, paid) · written note · ↗ Read · note text
One-line take: a short update to "The Anatomy of a Crash" (Mar-14). He explains he released the original several days early on purpose — so readers could watch the analog come together in real time — because a crash is useless to write about once it's already happening and is nearly impossible to time. He re-states the four-stage pattern (initial correction + relief bounce → retest with a minor breach/intraday tail → a 1-2 day "all clear" final bounce → collapse), re-lists the analogs (1987 Black Monday, the 2021 bitcoin crash, 1929, the 1997 Hang Seng), and points at today's Nasdaq 100 (40% Mag7). Macro/positioning update — no securities named beyond index charts, so no stock table (nothing invented).

Key points

Why the original went out early

The four-stage pattern, restated

The analogs — and the present tape


Key points extracted from the paid Substack post (in transcript.txt) for personal study. Not investment advice. © Paulo Macro for source material.