Title: USDJPY intervention rumors, palladium sooner, crude Jaws of Death Show: PauloMacro's Substack chat (open.substack.com) Guest: Paulo (pseudonymous, aka Cloudbear) — author Date: 2026-09-02 URL: https://open.substack.com/chat/posts/8f9c2508-fc72-44c8-80b7-3326ab7a72f3 Length: written chat note — no timestamps Note: Substack chat note (short-form, ~200 words), saved verbatim. Three charts are referenced in the note and are NOT captured here — the "Jaws of Death" cracks-vs-crude chart, an RBOB chart, and a palladium chart. "Yesterday's trade idea in palladium" refers to the 2026-09-01 "Ramblings & Ruminations" post, archived at ../2026-sep-01-ramblings/. Wording otherwise verbatim; no timestamps exist for a written chat post.
USDJPY took a leg down earlier on rumors of small intervention while precious metals back on the menu.
Was thinking more about yesterday's trade idea in palladium, specifically what the market action could be telling us, and I think I may need to get long sooner than I thought. Comes down to Russia on the supply side at ~40% of global supply. I think Russia is the most under-appreciated geopolitical risk on the chessboard right now particularly with elections coming up later in September (18-20th) and the uptick in noise around NATO flights and Russian hybrid warfare (Leipzig drones and diplomatic tensions). None of this is in commodity prices right here. Food for thought.
On crude oil, was looking at one of my old favorites the Jaws of Death (chart), and interesting to see cracks and WTI back to trade directionally together... as gasoline and diesel play daily ping pong with who leads, these products are dragging the crude complex slowly but surely higher. Still, everything is a Flush, which likely explains today's price action. A failure for the Flush to hold and a turn back through $93 would be quite bullish (see RBOB did something similar, third chart).
Stay frosty out there