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Fly on the Wall with Shrub & Cloudbear — Revisiting the bonds, AI, and risk... 10 Sept 2026

2026-09-10 · Paulo Macro (Substack) — "Fly on the Wall" conversation series (audio episode) · 36:14 audio (paid Substack podcast episode) — no YouTube upload; (m:ss) cues are Substack's own transcript chunks · ▶ Watch · raw transcript
Paid audio episode — Substack's auto-transcript captured via Stephen's logged-in subscriber session for

(0:01) Bruv. Bruv. Welcome to the house of Bruv.

(0:06) The house of Bruv. The house of Bruv love. Brother, it's Trump's house. We're just living in it.

(0:13) It's Trump's house. We're living in it. And man, I have so many memes in my mind. I don't know how I can get them out. I've been so busy. I've been doing zero trades and just throwing memes. It's unbelievable.

(0:29) It's a bull market in memes, man.

(0:31) It's a bull market in memes and nothing else. I'm doing memes of mass destruction, bit like Anthropic, you know, just like OpenAI and Anthropic, you know, just throwing nonsense of mass destruction. So anyway, so we're here to talk about, I mean, I don't know where do we start. We have a president giving $5,000 checks.

(0:56) What are you going to do with the $5,000 checks? I was actually thinking of pinking. I was about to ping Hunter Biden to ask him how much in laptop coins can I buy with $5,000? I think that's a good question. What a joke, man. So what are you going to do with your $5,000?

(1:14) I don't know, man. I'm going to Disney World. No, it's crazy. You're going to Disney World? Okay.

(1:18) You know, unfortunately, the entrance is $5,000 for one kid. Right. And you have a few of them.

(1:23) Yeah.

(1:24) Isn't that how it works?

(1:25) Exactly.

(1:26) Everyone has $5,000. What happens to the $5,000? It's also stupid, man.

(1:33) It's funny because my little blurb this morning on the chat was like, That scene in Coming to America where Arsenio Hall goes into the Western Union to ask for more money. And she's looking at it and like, are you sure you want to send this? He's like, read it to me. He's like, blah, blah, blah.

(1:53) We need more funds. Kindly send $200,000 American dollars. And she's like, you sure that's going to be enough? I mean, this is a place in Queens, right? She's looking at this guy

(2:03) like he must be high.

(2:04) And she's like, As long as we're asking, why not just go for a cool million?

(2:09) And he's like, you don't think that would be too much?

(2:10) And she's like, nah. I'm literally watching this stuff and being like, you know, $5,000 for every adult in America is like a cool trillion, right? Like that's more than we threw at COVID. During the pandemic, cutting people checks. But the refreshing thing about all this is at least Trump is just putting it out there and being honest.

(2:31) He's like, hey, I'm going to blow a trillion dollars on you guys if you vote for me. And he's not trying to hide it. He's just like, I'm going to just make it rain money. And the funny thing is that all of last year, all you would hear when you hear this kind of talk is,

(2:50) There is no stopping this train, and it's so good for risk. And now here we are with the 30s rounding 5.3, the 10s kind of knocking on 5, and suddenly it's kind of the jelly donut thing. Maybe there's too much of a good thing, and no stopping this train means it goes off the rails.

(3:09) Maybe risk doesn't make a lot of sense. I don't know. It's all such a joke. It's such a joke.

(3:15) I don't know, man. Look, at the end of the day, what we were talking about since last time was, you know, we've been mentioning about this midterm window of risk. And, you know, it's quite funny because I've been seeing, you know, the bears going, oh, my God, things are going to crash in September.

(3:33) I've been seeing the bulls saying, oh, you know, this midterm window is nonsense. Who cares? It's so obvious. It's, you know, it's very visible. So it's not going to work this time. And what did we get? We just got a massive chop. So literally, I don't know, man, like I had a pretty nice summer.

(3:49) I was on my desk every day, but it was a pretty nice summer regardless. So I don't know, like, I just think people don't know where to focus their energy. And I can see it, you know, the discussions I'm having with, you know, people being exhausted, people just focusing on every, you know, completely wrong things. And...

(4:12) And here we are, right? This is the end of the summer season. We're in the middle of this seasonality window where things can go pretty wrong at any point. And I gotta say that the trade that everyone makes fun of for a good reason is bonds, obviously. And Besson is not really helping anyone, and neither is Trump.

(4:38) So I don't know, man. For people that have financial advisors and have been in the markets for a long time, I could have memed the bond market to stability if I was in the Treasury. You know what I mean? Just do what Yellen did. I don't know what the guy is doing, honestly.

(5:01) Yeah. It just brings me back to our last one where we agreed like Yellen's the OG, man. Like she really is boss level.

(5:09) She's the OG. But I think we said it last time in the last conversation that the only thing that Besan has to do is just not say much. Go on holiday like any normal person would do. Just sit back. You know, just manipulate the bond market like he did with the oil market and like he did with

(5:26) the yen. And instead of making comments like I am the house now, It's like, dude, everyone is memeing this guy on Twitter that he's the house. You know, bizarrely, I think he does have a chance of stabilizing the bond market.

(5:42) That's why I'm still in the

(5:44) TLT trade. But, you know, he's just not doing himself a favor. He should just be doing it behind the curtain, like the Wizard of Oz, right? That's why it was so beautiful with the oil market in the end.

(5:58) Yeah, yeah, that's what we talked about.

(6:00) But it's the same thing. We're back at this. But by the way, let me just say something since we're at it. So I remember I put like, when did we put the TLT trade like a week ago or something? I can't remember. Time flies. Yeah, maybe two weeks ago. I mean, TLT hasn't done much since.

(6:18) We're still like there. So even if you see like this whole You know, there's whole fanfare around bonds blowing up and yabida, yabida. You know, the TLD hasn't moved. So it's not like anything is breaking. The only thing that's breaking is people's patience. That's why, you know, there is a risk of getting, you know, everything flushing.

(6:43) That's the real risk. I'm actually not worried about bonds because I know what I'm going to lose there. I'm just going to lose the premium I have on the trade. So I don't really care. I'd be worried about everything else if the bonds break. Everything breaks. Yeah, I agree. Nice AI CapEx infrastructure plan you have there.

(7:01) Sorry to see it go to waste, but it is where it is.

(7:05) Yeah. Whenever I start to get this funny feeling like we're all speaking Portuguese and don't even realize it and everybody's suddenly back on the fiscal dominance train, I get a little nervous because it is also seasonal, right? We did this exact same story in 2023. In September, October of that year,

(7:31) Druck came out and interviewed Paul Tudor Jones in a fireside chat in October, literally within a week of the high yields in that sell off. About the fiscal position. And I feel like we're reliving the same year. It's kind of like we're a TV show for aliens, right?

(7:52) People are always joking like, man, this Earth show is crazy. And I remember there's a funny... Kind of remake of 21 Jump Street. They did a series of it and then they did like 22 Jump Street. And in the 22, the head of police who supervises Jonah Hill,

(8:11) the chubby guy from Superbad and his partner, and he says, do the exact same thing. And they're like, no, we want to do this. And he's like, We're going to do the exact same thing as the first time. So the movie is just a formula.

(8:26) And I feel like 2026 is the same formula as 23 for the Bonds. We are going to trot out Druck in September, October. To wave his hands about the fiscal situation being a mess and intervention in the bonds and the government heavy hand. We are going to sell the bonds hard.

(8:46) We are going to make that very, very visible. We are going to give people no reason to be long bonds into the hole. I feel like we're reliving the exact same year. Yeah, exactly. You know what I mean? I agree. The same thing. You know what was crazy too though, and we talked about this last night,

(9:07) So that fireside chat was amazing, right? Here are Druck and Paul Jones, like two of my three heroes in trading. And now we have Druck with his op-ed about the fiscal and the bonds. And then last night, Paul Jones comes out about AI might kill us all and needs guardrails. And I'm like, it's the same show.

(9:29) It's just the 2026 season. I can't believe it. Like within two weeks of each other, they're visible.

(9:37) Dude, honestly, this AI thing, you know, I wrote this piece called Cloudification Overdrive, which in a summary basically says, get ready to be Bombarded with bullish narratives on AI over the next few weeks for the very simple reason that Wall Street is going to try its hardest to tell you

(9:58) that you need to belong AI into the anthropic IPO because they want to get the IPO out of the way.

(10:04) Yep.

(10:05) And it has to succeed. So all these qualified investment managers and all these qualified bankers are going to try and just peddle their bullish narrative to us. Great. So, you know, I was just saying, like, be ready for that. And then a few hours later, they came out saying, OpenAI came out and said,

(10:22) we solved the Navier-Stokes equation, a millennium problem. And then it came out that, oh, so there were some human researchers using ChatGPT and OpenAI stole their methodology and used it. Yeah. Something like that.

(10:39) And burned, like, 22 million in tokens for a $1 million math prize. Like, yet again, the ROI is negative.

(10:47) The ROI is negative. But, I mean, the irony is, you know, my good friend Jimmy was like, look, dude, I've never seen this before where, you know, we spent $2 trillion to steal someone's math homework. Like, in my days, we just leaned over their shoulder and took it. I mean, this is so phenomenal.

(11:06) The memes write themselves, man.

(11:08) They write themselves, but it's so stupid. Oh, and by the way, I think we're not even done yet. I think you're going to see more millennium problems being solved. I think you're going to see more controversies. You're going to see a miracle drug be announced. Everything will happen in the next 30 days. I'm just letting you know.

(11:26) It's going to be so stupid. And that's why I'm kind of like... I'm just kind of like not taking a very strong stance on the up or the down because I can just see two very competing forces at play here. In fact, I mean, you can say that if you were completely unemotional,

(11:46) you want to be long some AI bullshit and short everything else or something. You want to be long a barbell of AI and energy just in case Iran blows everything up. And short everything else. But I don't care. I'm not doing any of that.

(12:00) I think they're going to try, man. But I do think there's actually a path here where it doesn't work. Well, I think we're

(12:10) going to top at the end of it. At the end of this, we're going to top.

(12:12) Yeah, but I think people have to also keep in the back of their minds there is a WeWork issue here where if that S1 comes out, it worked for Elon.

(12:20) No, man. It's not going to happen this time. I'll tell you why. Because back when we had WeWork, we didn't have Claude and Gemini. So what's going to happen now is every monkey is going to put the S1 into Claude and it's going to ask Claude, hey Claude, summarize the S1 for me.

(12:36) And Claude is going to say, this is the best company

(12:40) in the whole world.

(12:41) You should mortgage your house and put everything in this company. You should put your left kidney in this company.

(12:49) Do a Mike Saylor on crypto, like sell both kidneys, but don't sell Anthropic. But, you know, staying with this for a second though, man.

(12:58) Sorry, I need to pick up something that a reader sent me. So this good reader of mine, Steve, he put the clodification overdrive in clod, okay?

(13:17) Your note, you went it through Claude.

(13:19) Yeah, here I click Claude. And he sent it to me, he says, look, I think you would find this funny. And did Claude shit all over it? So, dude, dude, dude, dude. So this is what he says. So, Claudeification overdrive. His argument, like my argument. The AI ecosystem needs capital. Therefore, the Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs must succeed.

(13:44) And then, last paragraph. I have a conflict of interest here, and I'm not going to adjudicate it, whatever that means. The thesis is partly a claim about what systems like me do to the information you receive. I can tell you what he said, and I could tell you the levels of, you know,

(14:05) the software that I put in, but I should not be the one telling you whether he's right about me. And I'm like, oh God. So this is like, And AGI criticizing my article saying, I cannot tell you his view about me or, you know, I don't like his criticism of me.

(14:29) What does this mean?

(14:31) I was like, okay, so we've reached a meme version of AGI. That's crazy.

(14:38) So here's the thing, though. There are ways for this to get snaked. And whether you want to go the GeoPaul route, where China's conveniently suddenly popping DeepSeek up again. But I don't know if you saw this. Just in the last 12 hours or whatever, DeepSeek came out with another version.

(14:55) Nobody's talking about it, because obviously the bonds are getting all the attention today. Of course. Well, no one's talking about it conveniently, right? It's literally right behind Astra. And 1.4% of the cost. And it's ahead of Fable. So once again, we're back to these open models are almost there and they cost a fraction.

(15:21) And I'm like, Astra just came out like a week ago. That kind of hits hard, man. These bankers better hurry up and get this deal away and do their claudification because... If Moonshot comes out and says, actually, we've got this and it's better than Claude and Astra,

(15:42) and they leapfrog us like a week in the pricing, they'll pull this deal, man. And actually, that would be a bottom in the market because it's so much stock. It's classic. People have to make room. And if IPOs miss the window or are delayed because of market conditions,

(16:01) then that's actually a near-term low in the market because you've kicked out the overhang risk from too much paper hitting the equity guys this close to year-end. And that's the other thing. We're also not that far away from year-end. Do guys really want to Put their year on the line in October on something

(16:20) that even remotely smells shaky or at least has a modicum of controversy around it like all of this noise when the year has been hard enough as it is. There's a game to play here in October, man. I know they're going to pump it and try to get it away. I hear you on all of that.

(16:42) I just have a doubt about whether or not it makes the window. For issuance or whether or not they end up having to try again.

(16:49) I always have a view that you just don't want to underestimate the greed and drive of Wall Street to get a nonsense narrative so they can make money. Like, dude, just look at what's happening around us. This opening, guys, like literally they're telling us that there's a 10% chance that humanity is going

(17:10) to be wiped out because of Anthropic. And everyone is cheering them. It's like, oh yeah, this is a two trillion dollar company. And then, you know, Dario says, we're going to be the only private company left and everything else is going to be nationalized. I'm like, listen, you absolute... I'm not going to say that word. Listen, bruv.

(17:33) If there's a 10% chance that you're going to wipe out humanity, then the only company that's going to get nationalized is you. They should literally just go in your office, And just storm your building and just take the whole company. That's it. And there's a risk in Congress with that

(17:48) right now. Congressmen are writing notes to ChatGPT to OpenAI saying, hey, you lied about... Other instances around hugging face, the pressure against data centers and the not in my backyard is extreme. A year ago, more people approved data centers than didn't. And today it's like four or five to one against building data centers.

(18:11) These bankers have their work cut out for them is all I'm saying. And again, I hear you, but If you try to bring this kind of stock in a shaky tape with a narrative around the edges between deep seek, semis are still well off the highs and question marks around safety and guardrails

(18:32) and the US government needs to do more. And then the question becomes, if the deal doesn't get away in October and the midterms hit and Trump gets, you know, the Republicans get swept. You know that the Dems are going to come in like guns blazing around regulating this industry and then suddenly

(18:48) the picture changes and that deal comes back a lot cheaper. I know it's not your base case and it's not quite mine yet either, but there is a path here for things not to go right for this IPO. In narrative space, like the worm is turning and the monkeys and the long onlys

(19:08) and stuff may want this deal, but they better hope that the tape holds together because this is a hard thing if the markets are down a few hundred handles from here in October, looking at what Q4 in year end could look like, especially from performance. I don't know. We'll see.

(19:28) It's not obvious to me that this thing is going to get done. But what do I know? It's very obvious to me

(19:34) it's going to get done. It's very obvious to me it's going to get done. Because they're so driven, dude. If Destin can't manipulate the market, then the whole of Wall Street will do it for him. Just so they get their fees. Imagine how arrogant they are. You know, we started the anthropic valuation at a trillion.

(19:57) And then now we're talking about two trillion. No one blinked. No one said anything. This happened in the space of two months, right? And no one's blinking and everyone's just talking about what a massive opportunity is that this company can wipe out 10% of, you know, 10% China, they wipe us out. So I'm just telling you, like,

(20:17) I think you're, I think you're giving the monkeys too much credibility or too much humanity. I don't know. You're giving them too much Humanity, credibility, ethics, I don't know. I just think that none of those things exist when it comes to them getting fees. So they'll get it done.

(20:38) But the question is, is that the absolute meme top? Is that when they just ran out of bullets? That's the question I have. Because this AGI discussion is obviously absolute nonsense.

(20:55) Are you prepared to be a member of the underclass, the permanent underclass?

(20:59) I'm not prepared. I already am. I'm already a member of the permanent underclass.

(21:07) If you don't meme, you will remain a member of the permanent underclass, Shrubb.

(21:12) That's why I keep using AI to make memes.

(21:17) You know, I'm not much of a memer, but I have to say there is sufficient meme I would like to think so. Yeah, I appreciate it. It's really too easy.

(21:55) I know. I know. And I appreciate it. Don't worry.

(22:00) If only we had a nickel for every meme.

(22:03) If only we had a nickel for every meme.

(22:05) So what's the trade here, man? We stay with the bond optionality for a little

(22:09) bit. I'm risking 30 bips total. I feel disgusted that I even have this trade on, but that's the whole point. The whole point is that I hate this trade and everyone else does as well. And it's against everything I stand for. But if I was long bonds, I'd be throwing up every day.

(22:41) I just hate the idea of owning bonds. But if it's going to work and I'm going to make 10 times my money, well, I'm going to do it. I don't care. The only reason I'm just sticking with it is, number one, I know how much I'm going to risk. I'm going to risk like 0.3% of my portfolio.

(22:58) It's okay. Number two, everyone hates it so much and with such passion that I can't sell a trade that Kramer hates. I just can't do it. I just can't do it. Or Barron's had a, you know, Barron's had the magazine covering it. I can't sell a trade like that. I just can't do it.

(23:20) Can you imagine if The Economist cover tomorrow is Besant and the Bonds? Oh my God.

(23:26) And then, so I didn't mention this, but, you know, I have to mention this guy as well. So Elarion also came out, very bearish Bonds. And then David, no, what's his name? You mentioned him, Lacey Hunt, was like a legend. And he's like the biggest bond bull. He came on bearish bonds.

(23:44) And then Dalio.

(23:44) So I'm like, okay, everyone's bearish bonds. And I've been bearish bonds forever. But I don't want these people to be bearish bonds with me. That's the whole point.

(23:54) That's

(23:55) the thing. I don't own a single bond in my portfolio. I don't even have T-bills. That's how much I hate them.

(24:01) Yeah.

(24:05) So put that all together, that's why I have this trade-on. And then my last point is the fact that Besant said, I'm the house, really spoiled it for me in a way that he shouldn't have said that. But again, he did such a good job with the Yen. Because people were saying, oh,

(24:29) he's not going to manage to do the yen or he's not going to manage to do the bonds. And then like he did with crude. So he managed crude very well. Then he managed yen very well. So he's two out of two. So the only thing that's left is the bonds.

(24:42) Yeah.

(24:43) So I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt, because if he manages it, it could be spectacular because, you know, at the end of the day, it's quite simple. If you're real money and you get a paper for five, 6%, you're going to buy it.

(25:04) Like it's not a bad return or I'm talking about real money, not, not for DJs like you and me.

(25:12) I'm glad you went there because I've got a thought on that. Continue though.

(25:17) Yeah. So you are, you know, you're running like a trillion dollars, trillion dollar portfolio and, You know, you need to allocate and imagine, you know, you get like a safe paper because it is safe at the end of the day, just a question of your, you know, real return. So on a nominal basis, it's safe.

(25:38) So it gives you 5%. Okay. You buy it. And, you know, you shun away from it so far because equities are up 15% this year and commodities are up 15% this year. So it goes back to the meme. If equities collapse and commodities collapse, all these guys are going to flock into bond again.

(26:04) So two things. One, your point about yields are actually, you don't have to squint to see them anymore. This is also very Brazil, and going back to this is Brazil and EMification of the West, that the reason why we haven't seen a re-equitization of Brazil and a real market depth in Brazilian equities is the

(26:32) The core real money guy, away from the hedge funds and local asset managers who do run a decent amount of money, is you can get a real yield on Brazilian tips, longer dated, for 7% real. Inflation, let's pick a number officially here in the US, let's call it 3% or 4%.

(26:52) Imagine I showed you a 7% tip plus inflation and said, you can get 10% in the sovereign right now. You wouldn't own any equities.

(27:01) The NASDAQ would be 2000 because

(27:06) you did your job. It's the old 333. You buy bonds at 3% real and you're on the golf course at 3% or whatever the saying was back in the 80s. And I think people, because they haven't lived in that world of EM and high real yields,

(27:23) which is the only thing that really constrains the currency from collapsing in a place like Brazil, Is 90% of pension assets are invested in sovereign debt. And every couple of years, the real yield will compress a little bit because the fiscal outlook improves. You know, Bolsonaro comes in and, oh,

(27:41) like this time we're going to do a structural fiscal reform, cut pensions, et cetera. And when those reels collapse, or at least compress a little bit and get down to like six, equities moon because now you get that kind of Move out the risk curve.

(27:57) It's almost like a Pavlovian QE-like response where I'm getting less on the bond, so I'm going to go into stocks and guys will reallocate at the margin. And then the moment the fiscal story collapses, they're out of risk and back into the safety of 7% real. And we're kind of getting to a point here.

(28:17) And this has also been getting attention in the Wall Street Journal recently and others about how well-funded pension plans in America now are because equities along with their privates, which we know is all marked to Fugazi, over the last 15 years, you remember a lot of these pension funds were like 60,

(28:34) 70% funded and covered coming out of the GFC. We've gone so far in equities and the remarks on private equity, et cetera, that the typical corporate plan today is completely defeased and more than 100% covered. Part of that is the asset appreciation, but part of it is also the liability side of the ledger contracting because

(28:59) the discount rate that these guys use has gone up. Because that discount rate on the liability of their payouts in the future has gone up, the value of that liability has come down. And so they've gone from being deeply upside down 15 plus years ago to right side up. Now, if you're right side up,

(29:20) why would you continue to carry equity exposure in the fund when you can lock in Assuming you're up now at like a 5% discount rate or six, if you can lock in five and a half on the 30 or tips plus whatever it is now, two and a half, you do it.

(29:39) That is a very Brazilian thing to do. It's one more way we are actually speaking Portuguese and not even realizing it. And that is your incremental out of equities and risk and into fixed income and treasuries. It's a very slow moving process, but I think we'll be reading more about this in the coming year.

(30:01) It's obviously not tradable on our time horizon in terms of the bonds, but it's in the background. And I think people need to keep that in mind. This is another way that we start to look more and more like an EM is that real yield stays high and serves as a magnet for domestic money to rotate

(30:18) into fixed income and support the bond market and to some extent the dollar at the same time. You know, bonds rally and yields come down, the dollar should sell off. And that's been the story so far. But you control the demolition of the dollar by having the domestic player rotate into fixed income to offset the foreigner fleeing.

(30:42) And so the dollar goes down, but it doesn't collapse. It just slow bleeds, which is what we've seen in the real. Yep.

(30:48) Yep. Which is kind of what we expect, to be honest. I think that's what's going to happen. That's right. It's going to be a slow and painful... It's not as slow and painful. That's how the world works, dude. This is a fiat currency world. So I would just say,

(31:00) you know, you got to own some real assets somewhere at the back of your pocket. You need to have some, regardless of market conditions.

(31:08) In the meantime, the second point I wanted to go to besides this kind of fat real yield Brazil analogy is to ask you, Besant was two for two and you stubbed his toe by putting a number on the buyback. And that's like, Telling the Raptors where to test the fence from Jurassic Park.

(31:30) He's eventually going to figure it out. What does he do? How does he actually save the bonds now? I think the obvious one is the yelling, you're going to buy my bonds meme that you like. And if you don't buy my bonds, I'm going to crash your stocks and then you're going to buy my bonds.

(31:47) But Trump doesn't want a market accident in equities between now and the midterms. So Besson is a little tight roping here, right? He can't let the equities slip to put a bid in the bonds and restrain the blowout in the long end. So what do they do?

(32:05) I'm asking you honestly, how does he stick save the long end of the curve?

(32:12) At the end of the day, how did they How did they bring oil down during the biggest energy crisis of our generation? And how did they bring the yen stronger during a period where the Japanese have such a massive negative real rate? In the same way, by manipulating markets. I know it's a crappy reason.

(32:42) But that's kind of what Yellen did. You just use funny mechanics where you just do your bond buybacks, you restrict issuance of the long-end, you change the regulations of the banks, you enable banks to own more treasuries, you do all these things, and then suddenly,

(33:00) magically, everyone's going to be like, oh my god, it was Sobis in the end. Right?

(33:06) Yeah, I'm sympathetic to that.

(33:08) It's a crappy answer.

(33:10) But he needs to do it now. Unfortunately, this is it. How do you make that work in a month or two?

(33:17) Well, that's why it's a very low probability of trade. Low probability in the sense that, you know, if there's like a 20-30% chance that he manages to... Okay, let's go this way. I think it's, let's say it's a 50-50, he manages to keep the bond yields here.

(33:33) And let's say it's like a 20-30% chance that he actually manages to get the bonds higher. But, you know, the payout on the trade is like multiples of that. So that's kind of why we take a trade. Otherwise, I wouldn't bother.

(33:49) So it's not obvious how he does it, but the

(33:53) trade is asymmetric, focus on that. I mean, we created this verb, you know, to fraud it. So, you know, they fraud the crude market, they fraud the yen market, they can fraud the treasury market.

(34:04) They'll pull out the stops. They'll find a way. They'll figure it out.

(34:07) They can pull out the stops. Yeah, they can just do their little regulations, their little long-end manipulation, their little this or little that. Oh, and don't forget, they have the Axios. So they can release the Axios as well. You release the Axios in the sense that you release news of a new round of talks

(34:26) with Tehran or something like that. Because in reality, let's be honest, the two big problems here that are unsolvable, and that's why we hate bonds, is one is fiscal irresponsibility. That's a feature of the system. That's why we can't own bonds long term, right? That's number one.

(34:48) And number two is like the geopolitics are still crap, both in Iran, both in Ukraine. And that's just naturally inflationary. So, you know, we have a naturally inflationary environment. So whatever he does, It's a short-term fix. We're just saying that we hope that he manages the short-term fix in the meantime.

(35:14) Yeah. Anyway. What do you think? We leave it there?

(35:18) Yeah, let's leave it there. All

(35:20) right, cool, man. All right, bro. Good luck out there, bro. Let's see what

(35:23) it brings. And tomorrow, yeah, tomorrow is 9-11. Yeah. Dark day, but... Miraculously, the market is always up on 9-11. I'm going to be watching if that happens as a sign of whether they still have it. I'm not joking, by the way. Every September 11, the market is green because, like we said,

(35:49) it's our subtle way of telling the haters and the haters that they can't really win. You know, it would be surprising if they lose control tomorrow. Yeah. Worth checking that out.

(36:08) All right, brother.

(36:10) All right, bro. Take care.