Reader-submitted picks for 2026 ranked by votes. Stance reflects whether Slegers argues a view in this post: Positive where he endorses or defends the name (six of them are portfolio holdings), Neutral where he only reports the pick. Research legend: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis. Foreign primary listings keep this source's suffixed row ids. Written post with no timestamps — the At link opens the article.
| Ticker | Name | Research | View | What he said | At |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVO | Novo Nordisk | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | #2 pick. "Novo Nordisk is also in a perfect storm right now. The market is very negative… Investors worry about more competition from Eli Lilly and a lower market share going forward. Novo Nordisk is currently twice as cheap as Eli Lilly." The turn is already visible: "The U.S. Food and Drug Administration recently approved its Wegovy pill. The stock is up +20.2% since then." Table: 32.9% net margin, 25.7% ROIC, 15.4x forward, 8.6% expected EPS growth. Argued in full four days later in the deep dive. | read ↗ |
| CSU.TO | Constellation Software | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | #3 pick, argued on management character rather than economics. "People like Constellation Software for exactly the opposite reason than Tesla. Constellation's CEO Mark Leonard stands in sharp contrast to Elon Musk: Musk craves the spotlight, Leonard avoids it completely; Elon makes bold promises, while Leonard is careful and conservative; Leonard didn't have a pay package in the last three years." Table: 6.2% net margin, 11.8% ROIC, 21.4x forward, 15.0% expected EPS growth — the accounting-depressed margin that makes FCFA2S the right metric here. | read ↗ |
| EVO.ST | Evolution AB | QT · SA · STK | Positive | #4 pick, and the archive's clearest "returns without growth" case. The damage is conceded without hedging: "Evolution AB is in a perfect storm right now. The company is struggling, mainly due to issues with cybercrime. Revenue is declining for the first time ever." The case is then rebuilt on capital return alone: "the company could deliver excellent returns to shareholders. Even without growth. The current shareholder yield is over 10% (dividends + share buybacks)." Table: 50.6% net margin, 27.0% ROIC, 10.5x forward — by far the cheapest and most profitable row on the page. | read ↗ |
| KPG.AX | Kelly Partners Group Holdings | STK | Positive | #5 pick — the whole case is one slide from the shareholder meeting. FY31 targets: revenue $500m, EBITDA $175m, NPATA $40m, which against today's numbers implies +24.4% revenue, +31.4% EBITDA and +28.2% NPATA a year. "Those figures look very attractive. As a result, Kelly Partners could deliver amazing returns for shareholders." Table: 2.5% net margin (the lowest on the page — minority interests and amortisation), 13.5% ROIC, 35.9x forward. | read ↗ |
| ZTS | Zoetis | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | #8 pick, and the one that becomes a purchase. "Zoetis expects the global animal health market to almost double in the next ten years. A company like Zoetis could fully benefit from this. However, the market is less optimistic. The reason? The company cut its revenue guidance. This disappointed a lot of investors. This is just short-term noise if you ask me. As a result, you can buy Zoetis at one of it's cheapest valuation levels ever." Table: 28.2% net margin, 24.2% ROIC, 19.0x forward, 7.8% expected growth. Bought on 29 January at a $123 limit. | read ↗ |
| KNSL | Kinsale Capital | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | #9 pick, reduced to a single testable claim. "The investment thesis depends on one simple fact: Kinsale could double its market share in the next few years. You don't believe me? In 2024, their market share was 1.4%… When we look at 2021, their market share was just 0.9%." A three-year run-rate extrapolated forward, sourced to the company's own October 2025 and August 2023 investor presentations. Table: 26.3% net margin, 10.5% ROIC, 19.8x forward, 14.8% expected EPS growth. | read ↗ |
| MELI | MercadoLibre | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | #1 pick for 2026 — the crowd's favourite, and still not endorsed. The growth claim is quoted from the CEO: Marcos Galperin on X — "MercadoLibre is the only public company in the world (out of +83.000 public companies) to grow more than 22 consecutive quarters in a row at a yearly rate greater than 30%. Currently we have done this for 27 consecutive quarters." The mechanism named is vertical integration: Commerce 56.8% of revenue (including its own Mercado Envíos logistics) and Fintech 43.2% via Mercado Pago, so "if you pay through Mercado Pago, the company earns yet another fee." Table: 43.6x forward on a 7.9% net margin and 8.4% ROIC — no valuation comment offered, consistent with the "obviously not cheap" verdict three days earlier. | read ↗ |
| GOOGL | Alphabet | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | #7 pick. Carried entirely on other people's conviction: Munger in 2009 — "Google has a huge new moat. In fact, I've probably never seen such a wide moat" — and the follow-through, "Buffett and Munger said multiple times that they regret not buying Google earlier. Well… they finally did recently. Berkshire Hathaway bought 18 million Google shares in 2025." Table: 32.2% net margin, 29.5% ROIC, 30.2x forward, 15.0% expected growth. No Compounding Quality position or valuation view. | read ↗ |
| DUOL | Duolingo | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | #6 pick and the only new-economy consumer name in the list. "Users keep coming back because learning feels like a game. That's why twelve million people now have a paid subscription. This creates high-quality recurring revenue." Expanding beyond languages into maths and music; "since 2019, the number of paying subscribers has grown by 55.7%" a year. Table: 40.0% net margin and 37.7% ROIC — the best pair on the page — against 44.5x forward and no long-term EPS growth estimate. Reported, not rated. | read ↗ |
| TSLA | Tesla | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | #10 pick, and the page's implicit counter-example. Reported facts only: "Tesla is not the world's leading electric vehicle manufacturer anymore. China's BYD recently took the top spot. However, Elon Musk still believes in his baby. He thinks Tesla could be worth $8.5 trillion within the next 10 years. Today, it's around $1.4 trillion. If that happens, and a few other targets are hit, Elon could receive a bonus worth $1 trillion in Tesla shares." No stance is written — but the table prints a 215.3x forward PE on a 5.3% net margin and 5.3% ROIC, every one of which fails the house thresholds, and the Constellation entry three rows later uses Tesla as the explicit contrast. | read ↗ |
The closing table is the issue. Screened against the house thresholds (net margin >10%, ROIC >15%), only ZTS, GOOGL, DUOL, EVO.ST and NVO clear both; KNSL and CSU.TO fail on stated ROIC for structural reasons (insurance float, acquisition accounting), KPG.AX and MELI on margin, and TSLA on everything. Ranked by forward PE the order inverts the vote: the crowd's #1 is the second-most-expensive name on the page at 43.6x and its #4 is the cheapest at 10.5x. Six of the ten are disclosed holdings (NVO, CSU.TO, EVO.ST, KPG.AX, KNSL and — from 29 January — ZTS), which is why the commentary reads as position maintenance rather than idea generation.
A jargon-free summary of the thesis behind each argued name. (Renders on each name's consolidated page.)
Zoetis makes the medicines, vaccines and tests that vets and farmers use on animals — about two-thirds pets, one-third livestock. It is the biggest company in animal health.
The shares are cheap because the company told investors it would sell less than previously expected. Slegers' response is to separate the two time horizons: a guidance cut changes this year, and the argument for owning Zoetis is that the animal-health market roughly doubles over ten. His phrase — "this is just short-term noise if you ask me" — is the standard setup for a purchase in this archive, and eighteen days later it is exactly that: he sells OTC Markets and buys Zoetis with the proceeds.
The numbers in the closing table support the case rather than the enthusiasm: a 28.2% profit margin and a 24.2% return on capital, at 19 times next year's earnings. Good business, ordinary price, temporary problem — which is the entire method in one row.
Evolution films real dealers running casino games and streams them into online gambling sites, which license the games rather than build them. It is the market leader and extraordinarily profitable — half of every euro of revenue reaches the bottom line.
The business is in trouble and the write-up says so: revenue is falling for the first time in the company's history, largely because of criminal attacks on its Asian operations. What makes this entry worth reading is that the case does not depend on fixing that. At ten times earnings, the company can hand shareholders more than 10% of the share price back every year in dividends and share buybacks. If the business merely stops shrinking, buying back a tenth of the company annually does the work on its own.
The catch is stated in half a sentence — "especially since we expect Evolution AB to keep growing its intrinsic value." A buyback at a low price only creates value if the underlying earnings hold. That is the assumption to test, and by the summer it is the only leg of the case still standing.
Kinsale writes insurance for risks other insurers decline — unusual properties, hard-to-price liabilities — and prices them individually rather than off a standard rate card.
This entry is unusually disciplined because the whole thesis is compressed to one number. Kinsale had 0.9% of its market in 2021 and 1.4% in 2024; the claim is that it can roughly double that again over the next few years. Everything else — the technology platform, the founder, the underwriting record — matters only insofar as it lets that share keep rising.
A thesis stated that way is easy to check and easy to be wrong about in public, which is the point. If share growth stalls, the case is finished regardless of how good the business still looks.
Kelly Partners buys small Australian accounting firms and runs them in partnership with the local principals, who keep a stake.
The entire case here is one slide from the annual meeting: management's targets for 2031 of $500 million of revenue, $175 million of EBITDA and $40 million of NPATA. Converted into annual rates that is roughly 24%, 31% and 28% a year — very fast for an accounting roll-up.
Two cautions the write-up does not raise. These are management's own numbers, presented without the 30-40% haircut Slegers normally applies to forecasts. And the reported profit margin of 2.5% in the same issue's table shows why NPATA is used at all: reported earnings are almost meaningless here because of the accounting charges from buying firms and the profits owed to partner-shareholders. Both facts are fine — they just mean the case rests on the target being met, not on the current numbers being cheap.
Constellation buys hundreds of small software companies that sell essential, unglamorous programs to specific industries, and holds them forever, using their cash to buy more.
What is striking about this entry is that it contains no financial argument at all. The case made is about the person running it. Mark Leonard avoids publicity, makes no promises, and has taken no pay package for three years — set explicitly against Elon Musk at the other end of the same list, whose proposed award would be worth a trillion dollars.
That is not sentimentality. In a business built entirely on buying assets cheaply and never selling them, a chief executive with no incentive to hit a share-price target and no appetite for attention is a structural advantage: nothing pushes him to overpay for a deal or to talk the stock up. The closing table's other numbers — a 6.2% profit margin — look poor and are an accounting artefact, which is why this company is normally valued on cash rather than earnings.
Summary derived from the archived Compounding Quality post (text in transcript.txt) for personal study. Not investment advice. © Compounding Quality / Pieter Slegers for source material.