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Actionable insights — 8 Stocks Quality Investors Are Buying

How to mine 13F filings without copying the wrong thing: read the sells, not the buys; correct for fund size; and distinguish a temporary problem from a company falling behind.
2026-MAR-05 · Compounding Quality (Substack) · Pieter Slegers / TJ Terwilliger · read ↗ · full analysis · transcript
How to read this page: each insight is a method used in this issue, written so it can be rerun on any quarter's filings. Written post, so no timestamps.

1. Correct every 13F list for the manager's size before you read it

The repeatable method
  1. Before treating an aggregate "most bought" list as a signal, ask what the buyer was allowed to buy: a manager of billions cannot take a meaningful position in a small company without moving its price.
  2. Add the second constraint — benchmark risk. A fund measured against the S&P 500 must own the mega-caps that make up a third of it, or accept large tracking error.
  3. Conclude that the mega-cap names on the list carry the least information: they are partly a constraint, not a conviction.
  4. Invert to find your own edge: the positions you can take that they cannot are small caps, and the positions that do carry conviction are the small ones several funds hold — bought despite the size penalty.
Here: both Top Buys tables are almost pure mega-cap — MSFT, AMZN, META, V, NVDA, TSM — while the section actually written up is "Big Funds, Small Positions": WAT, BKNG, ADP, CDNS, ADI, ZTS, MELI, FND.
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2. Read the sells before the buys — they carry the reasoning

The repeatable method
  1. Start the filing review with exits and full liquidations, not additions: a manager will explain a sale far more precisely than a purchase.
  2. Pull the stated reason from the letter or interview rather than inferring one from the position change.
  3. Classify the reason into one of three buckets: valuation, a broken moat, or a lost competitive position.
  4. Apply the same test to your own holdings before you look for anything new — the sell reasons generalise across the sector faster than the buy ideas do.
Here: three sells, three different mechanisms — FI (competition plus a guidance cut from 10% to 3.5–4%), BAH (a customer that became political), CACC (Rochon quoted verbatim from his letter). The eight buys get no reasoning at all.
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3. Separate a temporary problem from a company falling behind

The repeatable method
  1. When a quality name derates, name the specific mechanism: a cyclical downturn, a one-off cost, a regulatory event — or a competitor that is now simply better.
  2. Test the "temporary" claim against relative capability: is the company's technology, underwriting, product or cost position still at or above the peer set?
  3. Buy the first category at a discount; sell the second regardless of the discount, because cheapness does not restore a lost capability.
  4. Set a falsifier for the temporary reading — a metric that, if it keeps deteriorating relative to peers, converts the diagnosis to the second category.
Here: "Temporary challenges? No problem. They often let you buy great companies at a discount. But CACC fell far behind its competitors. And catching up looks anything but certain" — against "technology and underwriting sophistication" specifically.
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4. Treat a management guidance reset as primary evidence about the moat

The repeatable method
  1. When a new chief executive arrives, watch for the first long-term target they publish — it is the least-managed number you will get.
  2. Compare it with the outgoing target. A large downward reset is management conceding a competitive fact before the financials show it.
  3. Cross-check the reset against the competitive story you already suspect; agreement between the two is a stronger signal than either alone.
  4. Act on the reset rather than waiting for it to appear in reported growth, which lags by a year or more.
Here: FI — "when Michael Lyons took over, he dropped a bombshell. The old growth targets were gone. Instead of 10% revenue growth, the new plan was just 3.5% to 4%," arriving alongside Stripe and Adyen taking merchants.
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5. Price customer concentration as a certainty problem, not a size problem

The repeatable method
  1. For any business with one dominant customer, measure the share of revenue it represents and ask what could change that customer's behaviour.
  2. Distinguish a customer that could shrink from a customer that could become politically volatile — the second destroys forecastability even when revenue holds.
  3. Downgrade the name when the volatility is in the customer's decision process rather than in demand, because a long-term owner cannot underwrite it.
Here: BAH — "70% of its revenue comes from contracts with the U.S. Government… That killed the revenue certainty. Suddenly, the company was in the midst of a political battle."
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6. Weight a purchase most when the buyer is stepping outside their own style

The repeatable method
  1. Identify each tracked manager's declared style — deep value, quality, growth — before reading their filings.
  2. Flag purchases that sit outside that style. A deep-value investor buying a compounder is claiming the price has fallen far enough to satisfy a value test.
  3. Treat that as evidence about valuation specifically, then do your own valuation work to see whether you agree.
  4. Ignore in-style purchases as confirmation — they tell you only that the manager did their usual job.
Here: "Mohnish Pabrai recently added a lot to CSU.TO… especially given the fact that he can be seen as a deep value investor. In other words: Mohnish Pabrai thinks Constellation Software is way too cheap."
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7. Against an AI-disruption derating, test whether the asset is a network rather than a workflow

The repeatable method
  1. Ask what the AI would actually replace: a piece of software work, or the coordination of two sides of a market.
  2. Software work is replaceable. A network is not — the model still has to transact against whoever holds the supply.
  3. Confirm by asking where an AI agent would source the inventory or the counterparty; if the answer is the company being derated, the fear is misdirected.
  4. Buy when the multiple has compressed to a multi-year low on a fear that fails this test.
Here: BKNG at "one of the lowest Forward P/E ratios we've seen since 2020… because investors fear AI will disrupt its business. We don't think this will be the case as Booking's network effect is very powerful" — the company "owns the traffic," not the hotels.
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Methods distilled from the archived Compounding Quality post for personal study. Not investment advice.